Sell Tesla?

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  • BBBluesBBBlues Frets: 618
    Just shy of $700 now. 6th largest market cap. Bulls say $1000!?

    I do worry for the non-tracker retail investors who are only now piling in from FOMO. This could end in tears.
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  • BBBlues said:
    Just shy of $700 now. 6th largest market cap. Bulls say $1000!?

    I do worry for the non-tracker retail investors who are only now piling in from FOMO. This could end in tears.
    could?
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  • Asset Bubbles Through History: The 5 Biggest (investopedia.com)

    3. Japan's Real Estate and Stock Market Bubble

    In the present day, asset bubbles sometimes are fuelled by overly stimulative monetary policy. Japan's economic bubble of the 1980s is a classic example. The yen's 50% surge in the early 1980s triggered a Japanese recession in 1986, and to counter it, the government ushered in a program of monetary and fiscal stimulus.5

    These measures worked so well that they fostered unbridled speculation, resulting in Japanese stocks and urban land values tripling between 1985 and 1989.6 At the peak of the real estate bubble in 1989, the value of the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was greater than that of real estate in the entire state of California.7

    The bubble burst in 1991, setting the stage for Japan's subsequent years of price deflation and stagnant economic growth known as the Lost Decade.

    The US has had lots of companies doing share buybacks for years
    Buybacks are the ‘dominant’ source of stock-market demand, and they are fading fast: Goldman Sachs - MarketWatch
    this is largely why the price of US shares rose so much faster than in comparable countries, even though production did not increase much at all

    Now, in response to covid we have massive financial stimulus for the US govt/central bank

    Then on top of this, we now have retail investors using leveraged derivatives to buy shares that are already massively higher than company earnings or prospects can justify
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  • In the Tulip Bubble   -   Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble Definition (investopedia.com)


    in early to mid 1600s when speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes. At the height of the market, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary. 


    "The rage among the Dutch to possess [tulip bulbs] was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade."

    the best of tulips cost upwards of $750,000 in today's money

    It was at that time that professional traders ("stock jobbers") got in on the action, and everybody appeared to be making money simply by possessing some of these rare bulbs. Indeed, it seemed at the time that the price could only go up; that "the passion for tulips would last forever." People began buying tulips with leverage - using margined derivatives contracts to buy more than they could afford. But as quickly as it began, confidence was dashed. By the end of the year 1637, prices began to fall and never looked back. A large part of this rapid decline was driven by the fact that people had purchased bulbs on credit, hoping to repay their loans when they sold their bulbs for a profit. But once prices started their decline, holders were forced to liquidate - to sell their bulbs at any price and to declare bankruptcy in the process. "Hundreds who, a few months previously had begun to doubt that there was such a thing as poverty in the land suddenly found themselves the possessors of a few bulbs, which nobody would buy," even at prices one-fourth of what they paid. 
    By 1638, tulip bulb prices had returned to from whence they came.



    So, a lot of new retail investors a using "Robin Hood", which allows leverage margined trading
    Margin Maintenance | Robinhood

    Others use CFDs or spreadbetting

    The principle is that you set a stop-loss at 5% or 10% below the price you buy in at
    The risk is that if the price falls fast, it will trigger everyone's stop losses, and everyone will sell "at any price" at the same time - hence the price plummets. If you have leveraged, you could lose more than you own even though the stock price only dropped 25%

    Here's the story of a 20 year old student allowed to borrow $1m to invest, and thought he had lost it all, and then committed suicide: 20-Year-Old Robinhood Customer Dies By Suicide After Seeing A $730,000 Negative Balance (forbes.com)
    The lockdown death of a 20-year-old day trader | Free to read | Financial Times (ft.com)


    You can see all the ingredients in the US tech market
    speculation drove the value .... to extremes
    everybody appeared to be making money
    the price could only go up
    People began buying ...with leverage - using margined derivatives contracts to buy more than they could afford

    what could possibly happen next?


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  • So let's look at Doordash

    it's a good example because we can work through the business model more easily

    at IPO, initial share prices were very high, and nearly doubled instantly
    DoorDash shares jump 86% amid IPO frenzy | Financial Times (ft.com)
    At peak this valued the company at $60b

    At the IPO price (before the near-doubling), here's someone explaining how it was overvalued: DoorDash’s New Valuation Is Even More Ridiculous (forbes.com)

    DoorDash’s updated valuation implies it will:

    • Immediately improve its net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) margin to 8% compared to -67% in 2019 and an estimated -12% over the trailing-twelve months – unchanged from prior valuation
    • Grow revenue by 37% compounded annually for the next 11 years – up from 35% CAGR at prior valuation
    • Grow its share of global food delivery app market to 64% from ~16% over the trailing twelve months (TTM) – up from 56% market share at prior valuation.
    How likely do those things sound, but they were based on a share price of $95


    How much cash can you make per pizza delivery? it's clearly finite
    Even if automation reduces costs, competitors will automate too

    At the peak on IPO day, the stock market's valuation of Doordash, which is basically a website and some delivery vehicles  was $60b

    This would make it worth more than all but the top 8 of the FTSE 100 
    Table - FTSE 100 FTSE constituents | London Stock Exchange

    Does that sound realistic?
    A website and some bikes worth more than the 2 largest UK banks (Lloyds and Barclays) combined?

    It's clear to me that buying these Doordash shares can only be classed as speculation, there is no realistic chance of the company ever being worth the current market cap, or delivering significant earnings to shareholders as dividends.

    There are only so many pizzas to deliver in the world, There is no infinite demand
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  • https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-what-analysts-are-saying-about-apples-move-vehicles

    I assume everyone knows how much cash Apple holds?

    As Tesla Tanks, Here's What Analysts Are Saying About Apple's Move Into EVs

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  • Here's another reason I don't think Tesla is a good investment

    Branding
    Not many people with 6-figure salaries think Tesla is cool or stylish

    Car branding is still dominated by the classy top-notch German firms, amongst others
    These firms have huge brand loyalty, and image, with formula one teams, etc.
    Who is going to buy a Tesla when you can get a Merc, BMW or Audi for the same spec and same price?

    Look at how Mercedes (Daimler) are pushing these buttons in this advert 




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  • yep, Branding


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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12248
    edited December 2020
    You're looking through an English lens pre ban of new ICE sales, China and the US customers may see things very differently and are far larger markets.

    Personally, those Merc ads do nothing for me, in fact the opposite, it makes we want one less and a Tesla or a VW ID3 more. Tesla don't do any advertising yet are still selling a lot of cars which is increasing quarter on quarter.

    How many other cars allow you turn on the AC to pre warm the inside of the car from your phone before you go out the house and have driver profiles that allow you to set seat height and recline, mirror positioning, and steering height/rake, drive modes, audio preferences and a host of other car settings, that can be saved and set with one press of the display? The software and control updates delivered over the air to constantly improve their cars is a completely different strategy than traditional manufacturers.

    with regards Apple, I would say they are the only company with the imagination that could threaten Tesla, it's risky territory for Apple though, do they buy someone like Nissan to deliver an Apple EV or build their own factories? Either way they are years behind Tesla, unless they have been road testing extensively in complete secrecy. I wonder what charging port Apple will use and what national infrastructure can they roll out to rival what Tesla already has in place?

    Tesla will expand out of luxury vehicles with lower cost higher volume consumer models in next couple of years built out of the new China, Berlin and Texas factories. The Model 3 is mid range and not exactly a luxury model but there will be something around $25K released and a smaller European hatchback type model.

    The six figure salary crowd may have launched Tesla but it will be the 'every day Joe's' that guarantee Tesla's future...or otherwise.


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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12248
    edited December 2020
    With regards Tesla's share price pull back since joining S&P500, it's dropped 5% or so this week from it's highest price last Friday and I expected to see that roll through to my ISA as Tesla are top holding in Baillie Gifford American Fund but I've not seen any drop just more steady gains. I wonder if Baillie Gifford have sold off Tesla stock like they did earlier in the year? Unless there has been a year end dividend payout into the fund.

    I dd read a rumour that Berkshire Hathaway is building a large position in TSLA. Obviously not Warren Buffett doing the buying, but his successors. Did Baillie Gifford (SMT) sell their TSLA to Berkshire? time will tell

    The Baillie Gifford American fund is up 132% this year, I was only expecting around 15% based on last 20 years annualised performance. I thought about top slicing profits when it was 50% up in June but held on. I may do some rebalancing at year end as this exceptional performance has no right to continue....or will it?


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  • You're looking through an English lens pre ban of new ICE sales, China and the US customers may see things very differently and are far larger markets.

    Personally, those Merc ads do nothing for me, in fact the opposite, it makes we want one less and a Tesla or a VW ID3 more. Tesla don't do any advertising yet are still selling a lot of cars which is increasing quarter on quarter.

    How many other cars allow you turn on the AC to pre warm the inside of the car from your phone before you go out the house and have driver profiles that allow you to set seat height and recline, mirror positioning, and steering height/rake, drive modes, audio preferences and a host of other car settings, that can be saved and set with one press of the display? The software and control updates delivered over the air to constantly improve their cars is a completely different strategy than traditional manufacturers.

    with regards Apple, I would say they are the only company with the imagination that could threaten Tesla, it's risky territory for Apple though, do they buy someone like Nissan to deliver an Apple EV or build their own factories? Either way they are years behind Tesla, unless they have been road testing extensively in complete secrecy. I wonder what charging port Apple will use and what national infrastructure can they roll out to rival what Tesla already has in place?

    Tesla will expand out of luxury vehicles with lower cost higher volume consumer models in next couple of years built out of the new China, Berlin and Texas factories. The Model 3 is mid range and not exactly a luxury model but there will be something around $25K released and a smaller European hatchback type model.

    The six figure salary crowd may have launched Tesla but it will be the 'every day Joe's' that guarantee Tesla's future...or otherwise.
    Last I heard, Jaguar's biggest markets were USA and China

    I know without looking that it's the same for BMW for 7 series

    Let's check
    BMW:    29% of sales are in China, 15% in US, 13% in Germany, 9% UK, 3% Italy
    Merc: similar

    market in China
    wikipedia
    2017 Top 10 Brands by Passenger Car Sales[65]
    RankBrandManufacturer(s)Sales in 2017
    1VolkswagenFAWSAIC3,135,236
    2HondaGACDongfeng1,405,021
    3Geely AutoGeely1,248,004
    4BuickSAIC GM1,223,429
    5ToyotaFAWGAC1,131,616
    6NissanDongfeng1,116,709
    7Chang'anChang'an1,062,716
    8BaojunSAIC-GM-Wuling1,016,224
    9HavalGreat Wall851,855
    10FordChang'an840,946



    the features you mention have been available for years in ICE cars, and are available now in other brand electric cars, nothing new, nothing "special". I had the option to install remote pre-warming on my Jag in the mid-1990s

    I can see Tesla measured against many mature car brands who will be offering products at more price points, more cheaply at the bottom end, and higher-quality at the top end, I think they will struggle.

    I test drove the top notch Tesla. It was £100k, and looked like a Mondeo, interior was at best below mid-range BMW
    Handling? I doubt Tesla's lack of pedigree in fine tuning suspensions over 100 years will be an advantage

    Anyway, I really can't see why we'd assume that Tesla will be the global market leader in car manufacture, which is what the share price implies.

    The market "values" Tesla at $610b
    Compare that with Business - NYTimes.com

    GM $60b
    Honda $52b
    Toyota $245b
    Merc $75b
    Ford $35b
    Nissan $23b

    and
    BMW €46b
    VW €80
    etc


    Current Tesla car sales market share is 
    386k cars in 2019
    world sales were 65m
    so Tesla has 0.6% of world car sales

    What rationale would be needed to conclude that Tesla is worth more than pretty much something like the total of all of the "old"  car makers in the world put together? It has less than 1% of car sales


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  • Amongst Electric cars, Tesla sells just 18% of EV cars Tesla has 18% market share in global EV sales. But rivals are hoping to catch up (hindustantimes.com)


    Tesla (TSLA) still holds impressive 18% market share of global EV sales, but that's about to change - Electrek

    Pl.BrandsSept salesYear-to-Date salesMarket share
    1Tesla65,814316,82018%
    2Volkswagen24,035113,0916%
    3BYD18,631104,1766%
    4BMW15,525101,2706%
    5Renault13,30068,9284%
    6Mercedes-Benz17,83668,8554%
    7Volvo11,83867,5614%
    8Audi12,38567,3044%
    9Hyundai11,51063,6794%
    10Kia10,93759,8403%
    11SGMW19,02358,7853%
    12SAIC9,96751,2753%
    13Peugeot6,99443,4982%
    14Nissan6,93642,1812%
    15GAC7,08339,8332%
    16Toyota5,14431,1012%
    17Ford2,94430,4322%
    18Mitsubishi3,41728,2082%
    19Porsche4,20327,9282%
    20Nio4,20326,4981%
    Others73,177371,03021%
    Total345,5191,784,293100%
    I can't see any reason to assume that Tesla market share of the car market will ever get near to 18% Therefore, I can't see that Tesla shares can be considered an "investment", it's pure speculation at present
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  • With regards Tesla's share price pull back since joining S&P500, it's dropped 5% or so this week from it's highest price last Friday and I expected to see that roll through to my ISA as Tesla are top holding in Baillie Gifford American Fund but I've not seen any drop just more steady gains. I wonder if Baillie Gifford have sold off Tesla stock like they did earlier in the year? Unless there has been a year end dividend payout into the fund.

    I dd read a rumour that Berkshire Hathaway is building a large position in TSLA. Obviously not Warren Buffett doing the buying, but his successors. Did Baillie Gifford (SMT) sell their TSLA to Berkshire? time will tell

    The Baillie Gifford American fund is up 132% this year, I was only expecting around 15% based on last 20 years annualised performance. I thought about top slicing profits when it was 50% up in June but held on. I may do some rebalancing at year end as this exceptional performance has no right to continue....or will it?


    Berkshire Hathaway does Value investing, Tesla is the opposite of that, Buffet and the VP have both said in interviews that they would never buy Tesla

    For your US fund
     well, it seems far more likely to "return to the mean"
    I'd cash in
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  • For your US fund
     well, it seems far more likely to "return to the mean"
    I'd cash in
    Cash in?

    Nah, not my style. At best I would rebalance back to 50% of my ISA alongside Polar Capital Global Tech. I'm in it for the long run, I don't need jam today.


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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12248
    edited December 2020

    Amongst Electric cars, Tesla sells just 18% of EV cars Tesla has 18% market share in global EV sales. But rivals are hoping to catch up (hindustantimes.com)


    Tesla (TSLA) still holds impressive 18% market share of global EV sales, but that's about to change - Electrek

    Pl.BrandsSept salesYear-to-Date salesMarket share
    1Tesla65,814316,82018%
    2Volkswagen24,035113,0916%
    3BYD18,631104,1766%
    4BMW15,525101,2706%
    5Renault13,30068,9284%
    6Mercedes-Benz17,83668,8554%
    7Volvo11,83867,5614%
    8Audi12,38567,3044%
    9Hyundai11,51063,6794%
    10Kia10,93759,8403%
    11SGMW19,02358,7853%
    12SAIC9,96751,2753%
    13Peugeot6,99443,4982%
    14Nissan6,93642,1812%
    15GAC7,08339,8332%
    16Toyota5,14431,1012%
    17Ford2,94430,4322%
    18Mitsubishi3,41728,2082%
    19Porsche4,20327,9282%
    20Nio4,20326,4981%
    Others73,177371,03021%
    Total345,5191,784,293100%
    I can't see any reason to assume that Tesla market share of the car market will ever get near to 18% Therefore, I can't see that Tesla shares can be considered an "investment", it's pure speculation at present
    I'm still going to seriously consider buying a Tesla when I next change my car, all other cars are as boring as shite and look just like they did in the 1970s. I will look at all EVs in my budget range at the time though, probably 5 years or longer from now so a lot is going to change between now and then.


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  • I'm doing a chip that's going in most new EVs... super interesting. 

    Buy Supply@Me... massive potential there. I expect a 100-bagger over 3-5 years. 
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  • I'm doing a chip that's going in most new EVs... super interesting. 

    Buy Supply@Me... massive potential there. I expect a 100-bagger over 3-5 years. 
    what can you tell us about Supply@Me.?
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12248
    edited February 24
    crunchman said:
    Who knows? Tesla share price has been wavering for a few weeks and dropped sharply over the last few days as part of what looks like a bit of a global sell off/rotation which has hit growth/tech stocks quite hard, we saw something similar last September. The Asia markets have opened sharply lower again this morning, UK markets still trundling along in the cautious doldrums and US futures are flat overnight. At the moment, Tesla is forecast to open with a 2.5% gain this afternoon. However, US trading has been pretty volatile within session so while it may start with a gain there's no telling where it will go by end of session.

    Tesla stock is hugely over valued based on all traditional measures and there are plenty of people on both bear and bull sides calling for it to plummet or continue exponential growth. It's up 75% over the last 6 months even with the 20% drop over the last month.

    Even though Tesla is held as part of the portfolio in a couple of funds I invest in, which are managed, I wouldn't be looking to invest directly in Tesla either as a short sell or a long buy, it's way too unpredictable.


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9143
    wow

    Tesla is 33% down in 5 weeks, that's pretty serious
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12248
    edited March 5
    wow

    Tesla is 33% down in 5 weeks, that's pretty serious
    Yep. Although there is a general market wide sell-off in growth stocks in progress at present, Tesla has been hit harder than most. Baillie Gifford and a few other institutional investors have sold off significant amounts recently to lock in profits. I wonder how the Robin Hood brigade that brought in at high prices last year are feeling now? It's easy to hold a stock that’s rising but your convictions and rationale for buying and holding it are given a thorough examination when it declines. That sinking feeling can trigger a powerful emotional response.



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  • meltedbuzzboxmeltedbuzzbox Frets: 9273
    I'm doing a chip that's going in most new EVs... super interesting. 

    Buy Supply@Me... massive potential there. I expect a 100-bagger over 3-5 years. 
    what can you tell us about Supply@Me.?
    I can tell you the shares are under temporary suspension 
    The Bigsby was the first successful design of what is now called a whammy bar or tremolo arm, although vibrato is the technically correct term for the musical effect it produces. In standard usage, tremolo is a rapid fluctuation of the volume of a note, while vibrato is a fluctuation in pitch. The origin of this nonstandard usage of the term by electric guitarists is attributed to Leo Fender, who also used the term “vibrato” to refer to what is really a tremolo effect.
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9143
    wow

    Tesla is 33% down in 5 weeks, that's pretty serious
    Yep. Although there is a general market wide sell-off in growth stocks in progress at present, Tesla has been hit harder than most. Baillie Gifford and a few other institutional investors have sold off significant amounts recently to lock in profits. I wonder how the Robin Hood brigade that brought in at high prices last year are feeling now? It's easy to hold a stock that’s rising but your convictions and rationale for buying and holding it are given a thorough examination when it declines. That sinking feeling can trigger a powerful emotional response.


    Have you seen the psychology the WSB guys promote? e.g. "Diamond-hands"?
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  • RaymondLinRaymondLin Frets: 7334
    Long Term Index Fund...that's my plan and i am sticking to it.
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12248

    Have you seen the psychology the WSB guys promote? e.g. "Diamond-hands"?
    No! I had to look it up, I feel like a right 'boomer.

    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1046492-markus-heitkoetter/5551655-paper-hands-vs-diamond-hands-boomer-s-guide-to-wallstreetbets-lingo


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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9143
    wow

    Tesla is 33% down in 5 weeks, that's pretty serious
    Yep. Although there is a general market wide sell-off in growth stocks in progress at present, Tesla has been hit harder than most. Baillie Gifford and a few other institutional investors have sold off significant amounts recently to lock in profits. I wonder how the Robin Hood brigade that brought in at high prices last year are feeling now? It's easy to hold a stock that’s rising but your convictions and rationale for buying and holding it are given a thorough examination when it declines. That sinking feeling can trigger a powerful emotional response.


    btw my long-term investor expert mate told me 3 or 4 weeks ago that the increasing 10 year treasury note prices were going to cause a drop in the US markets

    it's worth reading up on that stuff, Cramer mentions it
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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Frets: 12248
    Long Term Index Fund...that's my plan and i am sticking to it.
    Nothing wrong with that Raymond. "Don't just do something...stand there"

    As Warren Buffet once calculated if he had invested $10,000 in an S&P500 Index Fund (although they didn't exist at the time) in 1941, when he started investing and just left it, it would be worth $53,000,000 now. No trading, no spending hours researching companies, no worrying about the news, or the economy, just left it.


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  • RaymondLinRaymondLin Frets: 7334
    edited March 5
    Long Term Index Fund...that's my plan and i am sticking to it.
    Nothing wrong with that Raymond. "Don't just do something...stand there"

    As Warren Buffet once calculated if he had invested $10,000 in an S&P500 Index Fund (although they didn't exist at the time) in 1941, when he started investing and just left it, it would be worth $53,000,000 now. No trading, no spending hours researching companies, no worrying about the news, or the economy, just left it.
    I tried day trade Crypto yesterday (I made 20% gain in the week prior), I only put in like £500 to for fun, I pretty much lost 3/4 of all the gains I made in a day from trying to time to market.  Although pretty much all the crypto went south yesterday across the board so I am not sure I would have done any better had it left it either.

    But that's crypto for you more than anything else.
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  • ToneControlToneControl Frets: 9143
    Long Term Index Fund...that's my plan and i am sticking to it.
    Nothing wrong with that Raymond. "Don't just do something...stand there"

    As Warren Buffet once calculated if he had invested $10,000 in an S&P500 Index Fund (although they didn't exist at the time) in 1941, when he started investing and just left it, it would be worth $53,000,000 now. No trading, no spending hours researching companies, no worrying about the news, or the economy, just left it.
    I tried day trade Crypto yesterday (I made 20% gain in the week prior), I only put in like £500 to for fun, I pretty much lost 3/4 of all the gains I made in a day from trying to time to market.  Although pretty much all the crypto went south yesterday across the board so I am not sure I would have done any better had it left it either.

    But that's crypto for you more than anything else.
    crypto price moves are much less predictable than S&P, FTSE, etc
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  • ThePrettyDamnedThePrettyDamned Frets: 5583
    Half of my isa is in an active Baillie Gifford fund which is being hammered and the other half is in a Blackrock passive fund, which is being affected also.

    Luckily I was not intending to sell anytime soon, but this is reassuring to me in a way - putting all eggs into one basket is risky. My funds are already pretty risky, but are managed by people who have a greater understand of this world than I. 


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