EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Phil_aka_Pip

mellowsun said:

Ban second homes and we wouldn't have a housing crisis. I've just got back from East Sussex, in Rye and Winchelsea, 75% of the houses around there are second homes and are empty. In the whitesand development in Camber, this is as high as 90%

I'm sure we'd have less of one, but does anyone have figures (statistics!*) to show whether the problem would be solved?

* Disraeli said: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

BintyTwanger77

Fretwired said:

BintyTwanger77 said:

Fretwired said:

BintyTwanger77 said:

@Fretwired @quarky I supported the No vote in the referendum, I want Scotland to remain in the UK and I want the UK to remain as part of the EU. I can't stand the SNP. I'm not flagwaving, I'm just pointing out the depressing reality of the situation.

I'm not sure. Nicola Sturgen is no fool - a vote for independence could cause all sorts of problems for Scotland. Technically Scotland would have to take the Euro if it joined the EU as a sovereign state - would the people of Scotland want to join the Euro zone given the problems in countries like Greece and Spain?

She certainly isn't. However, I think being a majority pro-EU country, and with anti-Westminster fervour ramped up by the SNP in the event of a Brexit, voters are more likely to favour the Euro, despite all the potential risks...or maybe adopt the kroner and form some sort of Nordic pact with Norway? I don't know. The best thing would be for Scotland to keep the pound, and the only way to do that is remain in the UK, but the best thing by far would be for Britain to remain in the EU. Turbulent, depressing but interesting times ahead...

I don't think the Kroner is a goer as I'm not sure that Norway's central bank will want to stand as Scotland's guarantor and lender of last resort.

Yep, a tough one all round.

Fretwired

mellowsun said:

Ban second homes and we wouldn't have a housing crisis. I've just got back from East Sussex, in Rye and Winchelsea, 75% of the houses around there are second homes and are empty. In the whitesand development in Camber, this is as high as 90%

Not sure that would help - aren't those more like holiday resorts? People want homes in areas they can work in and unfortunately for areas like mine we have have people from London who sell a flat or semi detached house and move out of London to get a decent sized family home - they commute to London to work on the excellent train service. Demand for homes outstrips supply.

mellowsun

Phil_aka_Pip;1108602" said:

mellowsun said:

Ban second homes and we wouldn't have a housing crisis. I've just got back from East Sussex, in Rye and Winchelsea, 75% of the houses around there are second homes and are empty. In the whitesand development in Camber, this is as high as 90%





I'm sure we'd have less of one, but does anyone have figures (statistics!*) to show whether the problem would be solved?

1.6 million people have at least one additional property according to the 2012 census

chillidoggy

Phil_aka_Pip said:

mellowsun said:

Ban second homes and we wouldn't have a housing crisis. I've just got back from East Sussex, in Rye and Winchelsea, 75% of the houses around there are second homes and are empty. In the whitesand development in Camber, this is as high as 90%

I'm sure we'd have less of one, but does anyone have figures (statistics!*) to show whether the problem would be solved?

* Disraeli said: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

There's no work in Rye, unless you're an artist, an antique dealer or own a bijou tea-room. And Camber is like Midwich.

ICBM

BintyTwanger77 said:

If there is a vote to Leave, Europhile Scotland will hold a 2nd independence referendum, and Yes will win, thereby negating any talk of a Leave vote to protect British sovereignty, because the UK won't exist.

That's not as likely as you might think - or I thought originally.

There appears to be fairly little appetite for a second referendum soon, even in the event of Leave - the SNP have pointedly refused to speculate on it, since they know the polls have indicated it would still be too close to call. They won't have another one until they're absolutely certain they will win - I think they've said 60% in favour consistently for over a year, or it may be 66%, I can't remember.

I don't think this is devious, I think it's rational and sensible - no second referendum unless there is a clear and overwhelming point in having one, and enough support to make the result unarguable.

I also think it's designed to put off any Scots from voting Leave (who wouldn't otherwise, but want independence) in the hope of causing exactly that situation.

Fretwired

Just heard Salmond .. in the event of Brexit he doesn't think there would be a referendum for three years. A wise move - it could take two years to leave the EU, during which things would be the same, and it would give the SNP the chance to see what happens to the EU and the Euro zone as well as the world economy - the oil price might recover.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

Just heard Salmond .. in the event of Brexit he doesn't think there would be a referendum for three years. A wise move - it could take two years to leave the EU, during which things would be the same, and it would give the SNP the chance to see what happens to the EU and the Euro zone as well as the world economy - the oil price might recover.

Salmond is many things, but he is not (usually...) a fool. Sturgeon hasn't even put as possible a date on it as that.

Evilmags

Salmon and Sturgeon don't have that call to make, it is the UK PM and parliament.

ICBM

Evilmags said:

Salmon and Sturgeon don't have that call to make, it is the UK PM and parliament.

That's true, but in the event of another SNP full majority in Holyrood it would become difficult not to grant it - just like last time. The question would be, if the SNP does then want one because they're sure they would win, would Westminster try to block it?

The important thing right now is that the Scots appear to have accepted that the EU result for the whole UK is binding on Scotland - which is good because it reduces the risk of a problem if there's a narrow Leave with Scotland voting Remain. I am still slightly worried by a possible very narrow Remain with England actually voting Leave but being overruled by Scotland.

Phil_aka_Pip

ICBM said:

I am still slightly worried by a possible very narrow Remain with England actually voting Leave but being overruled by Scotland.

I would be very pissed off about that!

ICBM

Phil_aka_Pip said:

ICBM said:

I am still slightly worried by a possible very narrow Remain with England actually voting Leave but being overruled by Scotland.

I would be very pissed off about that!

I think a lot of people in England would be, which is why it slightly worries me - not that I expect civil war to break out or anything, but it would certainly cause a lot of bad feeling. I wouldn't regard it as much of a victory if it happens - and it is a real possibility.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Evilmags said:

Salmon and Sturgeon don't have that call to make, it is the UK PM and parliament.

I am still slightly worried by a possible very narrow Remain with England actually voting Leave but being overruled by Scotland.

But that's how it works. We're either a united kingdom in which each persons vote counts or we're not. If the Scottish people vote remain and swing the vote then fine.

I bet more people in London vote to remain in the EU so it could be argued London won the Remain Group victory were that to be the result.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

But that's how it works. We're either a united kingdom in which each persons vote counts or we're not. If the Scottish people vote remain and swing the vote then fine.

I bet more people in London vote to remain in the EU so it could be argued London won the Remain Group victory were that to be the result.

I agree, but since some Scots have been so vocal about firstly wanting independence and then appearing to want to dictate what the UK does afterwards when they didn't get it - it was a mistake for Sturgeon to say that a Leave should be unanimous for all four nations, too - that's not how it will likely be seen, or can be spun by anyone with an anti-Scottish agenda. London may be a larger voting region, but it hasn't tried to gain independence or to set itself apart as a more pro-EU nation.

Evilmags

The SNP have peaked. The press love Ruth Davidson and St Nicola Krankie has outflanked labour on the left leaving the right wide open. Unionists (around 35%) are starting to see labour as useless, they know the lib dems are gutless so will vote Tory, as they did at last electiion. Many SNP voters were taken from the Tories (Perthshire, Desire ect) and look likely to go back to them.

Mkjackary

ICBM;1108669" said:

I am still slightly worried by a possible very narrow Remain with England actually voting Leave but being overruled by Scotland.

See, as someone who wants to leave I'd not have a problem with that. This isn't an English decision, this is a UK decision.

ICBM

Evilmags said:

The SNP have peaked. The press love Ruth Davidson and St Nicola Krankie has outflanked labour on the left leaving the right wide open. Unionists (around 35%) are starting to see labour as useless, they know the lib dems are gutless so will vote Tory, as they did at last electiion. Many SNP voters were taken from the Tories (Perthshire, Desire ect) and look likely to go back to them.

I agree… although the SNP have pulled off a clever trick by appearing to be more left-wing than Labour, whereas they really aren't (or certainly not compared to the real Labour, they may be compared to New Labour) - they're actually turning out to be more pragmatic centrists.

It's interesting to remember that in the 1950s, the Tories actually had a majority of the popular vote in Scotland, something that seems almost unbelievable now given the last few decades. That's just within living memory for older voters, so it probably won't seem so strange to go back there.

(Edit for mistake!)

I also see some disillusionment with the unseemly haste with which the SNP have abandoned their principles in Westminster, even by the standards of politics. In particular, voting against the English Sunday trading changes purely to kick Cameron was childish and hypocritical.

Mkjackary said:

See, as someone who wants to leave I'd not have a problem with that. This isn't an English decision, this is a UK decision.

I'm pleased that seems to be the case with people here… just unconvinced it will apply to most.

For what it's worth I agree, the other way round - if it's a narrow Leave with Scotland voting Remain, then it's Leave. Scotland will then later have to decide whether to become independent and try to rejoin the EU, if it still wants to.

Sambostar

This is my solution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TygtL5ma3kE

johnnyurq

Phil_aka_Pip said:

ICBM said:

I am still slightly worried by a possible very narrow Remain with England actually voting Leave but being overruled by Scotland.

I would be very pissed off about that!

So I understand you you woudl be pissed off wiht Scots but not the many more Millions in England and Wales voting such that it is narrow enough for a mere 10% of the country lke Scotland can influence it, but if it is a narrow leave and Scots vote overwhelmingly for in that is OK?

Holy shitcakes Batman that logic is just bourne of the need to pass the buck.

To be clear the way Scotland votes will oinly impact if and only if the other parts of the UK make the vote tight enough so you may want to have a word and be pissed off with them eh!! Cos you know arithmetic etc.

Sambostar

All the decent Scots have moved to Australia or the South East or live on the borders, that is all there is to it.  The rest are soft lads with massive chips on their shoulder.  That is all there is to it.