EU Referendum Vote - Poll

chillidoggy

Musing this morning on the reasoning behind Cameron and Co desperately wanting us to remain, I concluded that if we leave, they might actually have to do some serious work for a change instead of fannying around.

And on the same note, I also wonder what preparations the UK government has made for continuing to act in the British national interest should we get a vote to leave? If they've made none, then they really are a load of wankers.

Fortheloveofguitar

The amount of bollocks being spun now is pretty pathetic and mainly from the in camp

Fortheloveofguitar

19 point lead now for leave apparently

Despite being firmly in the leave camp I don't believe it but I do believe that leave will win by a bigger margin than most are currently predicting


http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679104/End-EU-rule-FINALLY-Leave-camp-take-19-POINT-lead-Britons-flock-Brexit

Fretwired

Fortheloveofguitar said:

19 point lead now for leave apparently

Despite being firmly in the leave camp I don't believe it but I do believe that leave will win by a bigger margin than most are currently predicting


http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679104/End-EU-rule-FINALLY-Leave-camp-take-19-POINT-lead-Britons-flock-Brexit

It will narrow. I don't think the unedifying sight of three women hurling personal insults at Boris in ITV's debate has done Remain any favours, together with their negative campaigning. Sturgeon is usually an astute politician, but even she got caught up in it.

Cameron has right to ask 'where's Labour' as Corbyn seems disinterested and on 'Labour day' (a day when Tories in the Remain camp shut up and let Labour MPs get all the airtime) he sent Ed Miliband into battle ... an odd choice given he's only recently lost a GE.

Fortheloveofguitar

Fretwired;1107599" said:

Fortheloveofguitar said:

19 point lead now for leave apparently



Despite being firmly in the leave camp I don't believe it but I do believe that leave will win by a bigger margin than most are currently predicting





http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679104/End-EU-rule-FINALLY-Leave-camp-take-19-POINT-lead-Britons-flock-Brexit





It will narrow. I don't think the unedifying sight of three women hurling personal insults at Boris in ITV's debate has done Remain any favours, together with their negative campaigning. Sturgeon is usually an astute politician, but even she got caught up in it.



Cameron has right to ask 'where's Labour' as Corbyn seems disinterested and on 'Labour day' (a day when Tories in the Remain camp shut up and let Labour MPs get all the airtime) he sent Ed Miliband into battle ... an odd choice given he's only recently lost a GE.

Totally agree that it will narrow but will still be a bigger margin than most think it will but not huge.

Farage has got it bang on at the moment too. His presentation is sitting well with more voters now that a lot of what he said in the past is now openly reported everywhere.

People are actually giving him a chance and taking the time to listen whether they like him or not.

I've been watching him on the younger generation discussions and he's come across well and definetly getting them thinking

Sambostar

Like I say, this referendum comes on the back of hard line Tory voters disillusion with voting Cameron in again, I think it has finally dawned on the Tory voting majority that the back benchers and UKIP are the modern Tory party and they have become more receptive to them.  Of course the polls help, because it means the likes of the BBC and Channel 4 have to show more impartiality, which typically is quite unusual.

Emp_Fab

Emp_Fab

BUT......

thebreeze

Fretwired said:

thebreeze said:

Fretwired said:

Interesting ... Farage was demonised on TV for suggesting this would happen ... and according to news reports the story was initially suppressed. The BBC new about it in May but didn't report it. I wonder why?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/four-syrian-immigrants-charged-sexual-assault-two-14-year-old-girls-newcastle-park-1564975

Sorry - but really why are you posting this?  "Interesting" because, like Farage, you can whip up the fervour of "us and them" and play to the racist lowest common denominator?  If you're so interested in injustices and the horrors of sexual assaults why aren't you posting links to all the examples of sexual assaults which are carried out by all the English people up and down the country on a daily basis.  The VAST majority of sexual assaults, rapes and child abuse are carried out and take place within the family - unpalatable but true.  I imagine you'll find most of them have been living here for generations, call themselves white and English.  I'd say that was a much more pressing issue just on the numbers alone.

There is no excuse for sexual assaults or abuse but equally that article makes no inquiry and no consideration.  The accused teenagers were from Syria ffs.  How much horror and abuse have they had to endure, witness etc?  Do they have parents or have they been raped and murdered?  Perhaps if we were a bit more helpful, rather than making them feel unwelcome, displaced and foreign (in the whole sense of the word) - and btw the EU can do a lot more on this, perhaps war-traumatised children (16-20) wouldn't be so susceptible to acting out in this alleged way.  The comments which follow that article are exactly the kinds of responses that these articles are trying to provoke.  We can put all our shit onto these "foreigners", then we won't have to look at any of our own. 

Most sexual assaults are reported in the press. This attack happened ages ago but was suppressed by the police. Why? My post is about about the suppression of news by the establishment scared it might affect a referendum result so reel your neck in.

I think how you try to present how you come across and what you're actually doing are two entirely different things dude.

Rocker

@Sambostar, [pedant] it is "give an inch and they will take an ell". An ell is around a yard and a half [/pedant]

ToneControl

It occurred to me that it was strange that (given that lots of people voting to leave are mostly concerned with immigration), that I haven't seen anything about projected future migration effects

I thought I'd do a quick google on the official stats

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2014-based-projections/sty-2.html

These state that, with zero further net migration, population in 25 years - we'd have just under 68m (this includes the kids of everyone here already).

With current (2014) immigration rates, the projection is just under 10% more people

Personally, I wonder how this plays out:

in 1850 the USA had the same population as the UK, and then had many waves of immigration 

If we have lots of immigration of people who add to the economy, would this boost just our total GDP, or also could it enable our GDP per person to increase, if we are attracting the more motivated immigrants?

The trouble is building the infrastructure, and changing our antiquated planning laws, which put the preservation of the status quo in our countryside (which is not natural, it's mostly intensively farmed)

Hopefully, this time we could have planned where people are going to live, and avoid creating ghettos. I'm fantasizing, of course 

Fretwired

ToneControl said:

It occurred to me that it was strange that (given that lots of people voting to leave are mostly concerned with immigration), that I haven't seen anything about projected future migration effects

I thought I'd do a quick google on the official stats

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2014-based-projections/sty-2.html

These state that, with zero further net migration, population in 25 years - we'd have just under 68m (this includes the kids of everyone here already).

With current (2014) immigration rates, the projection is just under 10% more people

Personally, I wonder how this plays out:

in 1850 the USA had the same population as the UK, and then had many waves of immigration 

If we have lots of immigration of people who add to the economy, would this boost just our total GDP, or also could it enable our GDP per person to increase, if we are attracting the more motivated immigrants?

The trouble is building the infrastructure, and changing our antiquated planning laws, which put the preservation of the status quo in our countryside (which is not natural, it's mostly intensively farmed)

Hopefully, this time we could have planned where people are going to live, and avoid creating ghettos. I'm fantasizing, of course 

GDP isn't everything. What about our quality of life? Are we going to concrete over the whole southern of England? We need to be building new cities which will need rail and road links - where are they going to go?

digitalscream

Fretwired said:

ToneControl said:

The trouble is building the infrastructure, and changing our antiquated planning laws, which put the preservation of the status quo in our countryside (which is not natural, it's mostly intensively farmed)

Hopefully, this time we could have planned where people are going to live, and avoid creating ghettos. I'm fantasizing, of course 

GDP isn't everything. What about our quality of life? Are we going to concrete over the whole southern of England? We need to be building new cities which will need rail and road links - where are they going to go?

Given that the urban landscape is 10.6% of England, 1.9% of Scotland, 3.6% of NI and 4.1% of Wales..."concrete over the whole southern of England" is a patently ridiculous statement.

Fretwired

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

ToneControl said:

The trouble is building the infrastructure, and changing our antiquated planning laws, which put the preservation of the status quo in our countryside (which is not natural, it's mostly intensively farmed)

Hopefully, this time we could have planned where people are going to live, and avoid creating ghettos. I'm fantasizing, of course 

GDP isn't everything. What about our quality of life? Are we going to concrete over the whole southern of England? We need to be building new cities which will need rail and road links - where are they going to go?

Given that the urban landscape is 10.6% of England, 1.9% of Scotland, 3.6% of NI and 4.1% of Wales..."concrete over the whole southern of England" is a patently ridiculous statement.

No it isn't. I live in a town that's doubled in size in 15 years. There are plans to add another 67,000 houses around it. Check the map. There are large parts of England where you can't build anything or where there's no infrastructure or work. The county council have put up a plan to build a new town of 150,000 people. We have one shit motorway and one train line into London. This is a reality where I live.

FarleyUK

I'm interested in, if we leave the EU, what the OUT camp plans to do with non-EU immigration.

Is it going to be points based? Or if you have family here, can you just bowl-up and enter?

Basically, is it going to harder for everyone to get in, or just our old EU chums?

Fretwired

FarleyUK said:

I'm interested in, if we leave the EU, what the OUT camp plans to do with non-EU immigration.

Is it going to be points based? Or if you have family here, can you just bowl-up and enter?

Basically, is it going to harder for everyone to get in, or just our old EU chums?

They claim it will be easier for those from Commonwealth countries to come here if they have family. Everything else will be on a points based system.

stickyfiddle

The Express reports a 19-point lead but not on the same basis as the 10 point lead reported in the Independent, as that one was a strict 55/45 leave/remain, whereas this is 52/33/17 leave/remain/unsure. 

Still, I'm going to pay off my student loan while the pound tanks amidst the horror...

quarky

That would be for the Government of the time to decide. The "out" camp won't be the Government.

Hopefully a points based system will be introduced, and having family will undoubtedly increase your score to some degree.

digitalscream

Fretwired said:

digitalscream said:

Fretwired said:

ToneControl said:

The trouble is building the infrastructure, and changing our antiquated planning laws, which put the preservation of the status quo in our countryside (which is not natural, it's mostly intensively farmed)

Hopefully, this time we could have planned where people are going to live, and avoid creating ghettos. I'm fantasizing, of course 

GDP isn't everything. What about our quality of life? Are we going to concrete over the whole southern of England? We need to be building new cities which will need rail and road links - where are they going to go?

Given that the urban landscape is 10.6% of England, 1.9% of Scotland, 3.6% of NI and 4.1% of Wales..."concrete over the whole southern of England" is a patently ridiculous statement.

No it isn't. I live in a town that's doubled in size in 15 years. There are plans to add another 67,000 houses around it. Check the map. There are large parts of England where you can't build anything or where there's no infrastructure or work. The county council have put up a plan to build a new town of 150,000 people. We have one shit motorway and one train line into London. This is a reality where I live.

And, given that only 10% of England is populated, it's not exactly difficult to figure out that such places are the exception, not the norm.

Chalky

digitalscream;1108262" said:

Fretwired said:



ToneControl said:The trouble is building the infrastructure, and changing our antiquated planning laws, which put the preservation of the status quo in our countryside (which is not natural, it's mostly intensively farmed)Hopefully, this time we could have planned where people are going to live, and avoid creating ghettos. I'm fantasizing, of course 





GDP isn't everything. What about our quality of life? Are we going to concrete over the whole southern of England? We need to be building new cities which will need rail and road links - where are they going to go?










Given that the urban landscape is 10.6% of England, 1.9% of Scotland, 3.6% of NI and 4.1% of Wales..."concrete over the whole southern of England" is a patently ridiculous statement.

My mate flies a small aeroplane and has taken me and my family for various flights in southern England. He flies most weekends and takes friends out for a spin, see the sites etc. And the comment he always gets is how much green there is.

So I have to agree that the concept of "concreting over the whole of southern England" is a strong emotional feeling but is factually and evidently silly.