EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Fortheloveofguitar

I believe leave are ahead now but not by 10%

Mkjackary

I think we will stay in, leave voters are louder, similarly to the Scottish referendum.

Sambostar

I beg to differ, all the quiet old conservative people I talk to and trust me, I talk to a lot, are all voting out.  That's your silent majority right there, the very same who all voted the Tories in for a second round and regret it.

littlegreenman

Either way it's going to be close, and not conclusive.

If it's Remain by a few %, we'll get another referendum in a few years. We get an "are you sure" vote if it's Leave in 2 years anyway. (unless I got that the wrong way around).

Nothing's written in stone as far as I can tell.

frictionfraction

If there are a lot of people like me around then it will go to the wire.. I've been in , out, in, out and shake it all about.

eSully

littlegreenman said:

Either way it's going to be close, and not conclusive.

If it's Remain by a few %, we'll get another referendum in a few years. We get an "are you sure" vote if it's Leave in 2 years anyway. (unless I got that the wrong way around).

Nothing's written in stone as far as I can tell.

That's a good point, the basic truth is, with the vote this close I doubt this referendum will resolve anything. Another referendum in the next 5 years either way I reckon. Vote Remain - Well there are MP's already saying they'll refuse to accept it and have an "Are you sure" referendum. Vote Leave - UKIP grows, far right grows. A new Leave campaign starts.

Sambostar

That is in a Tory Stronghold of Salisbury with most ex military BTW.  Last time they had a non Tory Council was in the '30's.  Hope that helps.  If anyone swings it, it will be the imaginary postal votes from the imaginary newly enrolled.

TTony

ISambostar said:

it will be the imaginary postal votes from the imaginary newly enrolled.

I hear that Cami has just managed to get agreement that the deadline for registration can be extended to the day after polling day.

Just in case ...

It's been agreed by the European Supreme Court, so no arguing.

ToneControl

littlegreenman said:

Either way it's going to be close, and not conclusive.

If it's Remain by a few %, we'll get another referendum in a few years. We get an "are you sure" vote if it's Leave in 2 years anyway. (unless I got that the wrong way around).

Nothing's written in stone as far as I can tell.

My theory is that if we vote leave,

the EU will offer us all sorts of new concessions that were previously impossible, rather than being arsey

Sambostar

I think if we leave the first we should do is a Nuclear exercise on the coasts of Dover and blockade the channel tunnel.

littlegreenman

ToneControl said:

littlegreenman said:

Either way it's going to be close, and not conclusive.

If it's Remain by a few %, we'll get another referendum in a few years. We get an "are you sure" vote if it's Leave in 2 years anyway. (unless I got that the wrong way around).

Nothing's written in stone as far as I can tell.

My theory is that if we vote leave,

the EU will offer us all sorts of new concessions that were previously impossible, rather than being arsey

Question being, what types of concessions, and with what strings attached? I can't see it all going our way with no consequences.

I'm about 50-50 at the mo'.

ToneControl

littlegreenman said:

ToneControl said:

littlegreenman said:

Either way it's going to be close, and not conclusive.

If it's Remain by a few %, we'll get another referendum in a few years. We get an "are you sure" vote if it's Leave in 2 years anyway. (unless I got that the wrong way around).

Nothing's written in stone as far as I can tell.

My theory is that if we vote leave,

the EU will offer us all sorts of new concessions that were previously impossible, rather than being arsey

Question being, what types of concessions, and with what strings attached? I can't see it all going our way with no consequences.

I'm about 50-50 at the mo'.

I think a lot of us underestimate how screwed the "European project" is without us

We might be flapping about a "possible" small dip in GDP

They are worrying about a collapsed currency, and other wealthy northern EU states bailing out

ToneControl

I saw a piece on Facebook, assuming that the only motivation to leave was immigration concerns or economics

I can see that many are worried about immigration, but it went on to imply that we'd be ashamed to admit to our kids that we voted "out"

However, I would feel guilty telling my kids in 2030 "yes I voted to stay in the EU, because I was told I would be £500 or whatever a year better off, I'm sorry that our economy is now about same +/- 4% than it would have been if we left, but that I've condemned you to indefinitely pay 5% or 10% every year in tax to rebuild the economies of southern Europe after the Euro collapsed "

Seriously, why are we quibbling about whether the long term GDP will be up or down a tiny bit?

We could indeed be paying a "reconstruction tax" for 30+ years to pay for all the abandoned southern countries

the "remain" projections are based on our GDP being larger, and population being larger in 2030

Let's reflect on that: we're talking about many more people from the southern EU living in the UK, changing the face of UK society permanently, a small GDP gain, but a massive subsidy then being needed to fund the depopulated countries of Eastern and southern Europe. Does everyone here understand the level of poverty in Eastern Europe? It's like the great depression in the US, or post ww2 in Europe. Many people there will be heading for the wealthy few countries in North-west Europe, some will have skills, some not.

Anyone doubting this should take a long hard look at history: the number of Irish immigrants to the USA and UK,

the starving Italians who moved mostly to the US. When people can't feed their families, they will move a long way. this will leave depopulated ghost countries, needing massive investment to re-attract their diaspora. Ireland has already experience one (failed) iteration of this

In summary, 

• increasing the GDP based on increased population will not be likely to affect the quality of life for UK residents
  
• GDP increase may well further line the pockets of the rich, but not the average man
• Most people in the Uk do not want large-scale social upheaval - so would wonder where the benefit was
• staying in the EU, we could end up paying more tax to reconstruct the states from which we stole these workers

Fretwired

ToneControl said:

littlegreenman said:

Either way it's going to be close, and not conclusive.

If it's Remain by a few %, we'll get another referendum in a few years. We get an "are you sure" vote if it's Leave in 2 years anyway. (unless I got that the wrong way around).

Nothing's written in stone as far as I can tell.

My theory is that if we vote leave,

the EU will offer us all sorts of new concessions that were previously impossible, rather than being arsey

I agree. There was a leaked report about the Germans wanting a quick post Brexit deal to keep Britain on side - a long drawn out and acrimonious divorce will damge the EU. I don't think Cameron will go. In the event of a close referendum and a small majority for Brexit I think he will win further concessions and decide to remain. The issue of immigration is easily fixed with an annual cap - this is something other countries want.. The EU's politicians aren't that dumb. Offer the children some sweeties and they'll behave.

Modulus_Amps

ToneControl said:

I saw a piece on Facebook, assuming that the only motivation to leave was immigration concerns or economics

I can see that many are worried about immigration, but it went on to imply that we'd be ashamed to admit to our kids that we voted "out"

I think regardless of what we vote this time, we are putting a date stamp on "guesses" as to what could happen, if/when another vote comes around we will be able to reflect with hindsite and I think people will be able to choose more easily. if we are being forced down the EU route and greater political union then I would guess people will be happier to vote out.... unless the EU is doing smashingly well of course... but thats not going to happen... now is it?

Fortheloveofguitar

Cameron will go whatever the outcome.

His own party have lost faith in him with reports now of putting him on the sidelines as he's allegedly making things worse for the remain camp every time he opens his mouth.

Whatever happens he's finished

Drew_TNBD

I have a question, and I mean it sincerely:

Why the fuck has the car market suddenly become a barometer of economic success? There are plenty of other things that are bought and sold, but everyone keeps talking about fuckin' BMW's!!

Chalky

Drew_fx;1107025" said:

I have a question, and I mean it sincerely:



Why the fuck has the car market suddenly become a barometer of economic success? There are plenty of other things that are bought and sold, but everyone keeps talking about fuckin' BMW's!!

German car makers buy from lots of medium size German engineering companies. And German engineering is world famous. So German car makers output - BMW, VW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche - is a rough guide to German economy.

ICBM

What happens in Europe is going to affect us whether we like it or not. Leaving the EU will simply take away any influence we have over it, weaken the EU and probably make the worst-case scenarios more likely and us all poorer. It's certainly true that as one of the richest countries in Europe we need to help support the weaker countries, but it's for our benefit as well… although I have to admit it's not being managed well at the moment.

The problem now is if there's a result which is obviously supported by less than half the electorate, even with a high turnout. I think this is likely to be true whichever side wins, so the arguments are just going to go on and on. A second referendum at some point has become inevitable, I think - neither side is going to accept a small losing margin. The only question is how long it will be and how much change in the relationship between the UK and the EU (in either direction) would change anyone's minds. I agree with Modulus_Amps about that.

Unless something radical happens in the next ten days and there's a 60%+ vote one way or the other with an 80%+ turnout and the result is clear beyond doubt… but that doesn't seem very likely.

Fretwired

Drew_fx said:

I have a question, and I mean it sincerely:

Why the fuck has the car market suddenly become a barometer of economic success? There are plenty of other things that are bought and sold, but everyone keeps talking about fuckin' BMW's!!

For most people a car is a major purchase only made (public and business leaders) when people think the economy is doing well and they feel they can afford the repayments (not about to lose their jobs). It's a good indicator as when car sales fall the economy contracts - one reason is the number of people employed from the supply chain to manufacturing and sales in the showrooms.