EU Referendum Vote - Poll

karltone

Don't forget we are a one of two net contributors (the other one being Germany) to the EU. It is quite serious black hole to fill financially if we were to leave. 

ToneControl

karltone said:

Don't forget we are a one of two net contributors (the other one being Germany) to the EU. It is quite serious black hole to fill financially if we were to leave. 

I thought that Holland puts a lot in too

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_statistics#EU_budget

Chalky

Mkjackary;1105560" said:

if we leave and the eu digs their heels in, I can see owning german cars/bikes becoming a lot less cool than it currently is. 

This is what @ICBM has lost the plot on. If Germany effectively declares a trade war against us (remember that nightly news term?) then it will very quickly turn nasty and German sales will easily plummet on hi-viz items like cars. Plenty of history of trade wars so this is not conjecture.

Fast forward the video - see the Germans causing unnecessary suffering to themselves and others because a democratic country voted for sovereignty. Sound familiar?

Ro_S

vote leave!!

ICBM

Chalky said:

This is what @ICBM has lost the plot on. If Germany effectively declares a trade war against us (remember that nightly news term?) then it will very quickly turn nasty and German sales will easily plummet on hi-viz items like cars. Plenty of history of trade wars so this is not conjecture.

They don't need to declare a trade war - they simply won't let us back into the single market.

Don't forget that one of the major reasons Japanese car makers are based in the UK is for easy access to the whole European market. If that becomes subject to tariffs, UK-made Japanese cars will also get more expensive in Europe and they will sell less. German (and French and Italian etc) car sales within Europe will actually increase as a result.

Check what the car manufacturers like Nissan and Toyota (who export 80% and 90% of their production respectively, almost all to the EU) have to say.

karltone

ToneControl said:

karltone said:

Don't forget we are a one of two net contributors (the other one being Germany) to the EU. It is quite serious black hole to fill financially if we were to leave. 

I thought that Holland puts a lot in too

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_statistics#EU_budget

I heard it on the telly must of been propaganda ;-)

 

chillidoggy

Now we've got Dyson for leave, and Scientists for remain.

This is getting to piss me off, why can't they all set their stalls out in one hit, instead of this drip-feeding malarkey? Have they only just made a decision after all this time? Or is it all a ploy?

Emp_Fab

NOBODY'S GOT A FECKING CLUE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN EITHER SCENARIO.  IT'S ALL GOBSHITES WITH VESTED INTERESTS TRYING TO KEEP THEIR OWN NESTS FEATHERED.  It's a complete gamble either way, so flip a coin, stick an X on the form somewhere and get back to what you enjoy.  There could be a huge meteor on a collision course out there for all we know.

The only thing that will change is the nationality of the dicks that are shafting us all.

ToneControl

Emp_Fab said:

NOBODY'S GOT A FECKING CLUE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN EITHER SCENARIO.  IT'S ALL GOBSHITES WITH VESTED INTERESTS TRYING TO KEEP THEIR OWN NESTS FEATHERED.  It's a complete gamble either way, so flip a coin, stick an X on the form somewhere and get back to what you enjoy.  There could be a huge meteor on a collision course out there for all we know.

The only thing that will change is the nationality of the dicks that are shafting us all.

I keep saying to people - voting should be on the core issue, not on vague predictions of short term small economic fluctuations

Do we want to be part of a political and currency union with all those disparate countries with huge variations in culture and wealth?

yes or no

but everyone wants to dwell on "will we be £5 better or worse off per week"

Ro_S

ToneControl said:

I keep saying to people - voting should be on the core issue, not on vague predictions of short term small economic fluctuations

absolutely

ToneControl

chillidoggy said:

Now we've got Dyson for leave, and Scientists for remain.

This is getting to piss me off, why can't they all set their stalls out in one hit, instead of this drip-feeding malarkey? Have they only just made a decision after all this time? Or is it all a ploy?

the scientists (i.e. people working in Unis) are just worried about their "EU grants", that are paid from "EU money"

Few of them seem to wonder where the "EU money" comes from

Dyson is right in all the comments he's made

But, what does he know about running a business and exporting?

ICBM

Emp_Fab said:

NOBODY'S GOT A FECKING CLUE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN EITHER SCENARIO.  IT'S ALL GOBSHITES WITH VESTED INTERESTS TRYING TO KEEP THEIR OWN NESTS FEATHERED.  It's a complete gamble either way, so flip a coin, stick an X on the form somewhere and get back to what you enjoy.  There could be a huge meteor on a collision course out there for all we know.

Classic false logic there Emp .

Just because neither outcome is predictable with 100% certainty doesn't mean they are equivalently unpredictable.

Nor does the possibility of either being trumped by an event of extremely small (though not zero) probability.

ToneControl said:

I keep saying to people - voting should be on the core issue, not on vague predictions of short term small economic fluctuations

Do we want to be part of a political and currency union with all those disparate countries with huge variations in culture and wealth?

yes or no

but everyone wants to dwell on "will we be £5 better or worse off per week"

I actually agree with this - although I think currency union is a long way off, and the depth of possible political union is exaggerated.

But I think the economic arguments are missing the wood for the trees - I'm quite sure the UK would survive outside the EU, although my guess is that we'd be worse off, but by how much or for how long is really a complete unknown.

If anything, voting Leave for nationalistic or emotive reasons actually makes more sense, so if that's how you feel then say so and don't try to dress it up in economics.

(That's not a put-down, by the way.)

Fretwired

mellowsun said:

I don't get the leave argument. As members, we are part of the decision making process. We have a huge influence on what happens, in the European Parliament and in the Commission. The idea that it's a bunch of dictators over which we have no control and under whose command we are powerless is ludicrous. We are seen as leaders in Europe.

Right now we have a better deal than pretty much any other EU country, in terms of our opt outs and exemptions. To throw this all away over genuine concerns about EU migration makes no sense to me.

We'd still need to sign up to the vast majority of EU trade, employment and H&S regulations that we are currently signed up to (and that we were involved in creating) if we want to be part of the EEA.

The fact we need opt outs shows the system is flawed. Our opt outs are at risk. Cameron's deal has not been ratified. Most members want our veto and rebate removed and that's before you get to the EU rules, court and the monumental waste of money, mass immigration etc. The EU is becoming a superstate that nobody voted for .. time to leave.

ToneControl

ICBM said:

Emp_Fab said:

NOBODY'S GOT A FECKING CLUE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN EITHER SCENARIO.  IT'S ALL GOBSHITES WITH VESTED INTERESTS TRYING TO KEEP THEIR OWN NESTS FEATHERED.  It's a complete gamble either way, so flip a coin, stick an X on the form somewhere and get back to what you enjoy.  There could be a huge meteor on a collision course out there for all we know.

Classic false logic there Emp .

Just because neither outcome is predictable with 100% certainty doesn't mean they are equivalently unpredictable.

Nor does the possibility of either being trumped by an event of extremely small (though not zero) probability.

ToneControl said:

I keep saying to people - voting should be on the core issue, not on vague predictions of short term small economic fluctuations

Do we want to be part of a political and currency union with all those disparate countries with huge variations in culture and wealth?

yes or no

but everyone wants to dwell on "will we be £5 better or worse off per week"

I actually agree with this - although I think currency union is a long way off, and the depth of possible political union is exaggerated.

But I think the economic arguments are missing the wood for the trees - I'm quite sure the UK would survive outside the EU, although my guess is that we'd be worse off, but by how much or for how long is really a complete unknown.

If anything, voting Leave for nationalistic or emotive reasons actually makes more sense, so if that's how you feel then say so and don't try to dress it up in economics.

(That's not a put-down, by the way.)

my motives for leave are not nationalistic or emotional

I think we are immense long term economic and social risk staying in the EU

Phil_aka_Pip

karltone said:

Don't forget we are a one of two net contributors (the other one being Germany) to the EU. It is quite serious black hole to fill financially if we were to leave. 

ergo they need us more than we need them. The fact that DC couldn't get them to budge on the deals he was aiming at (despite the possible threat of UK withdrawal from the EU) shows how intransigent they are and how committed they are to political integration at any cost, and IMO explains why we should leave. NOW.

ICBM

Why is it that the Leave side often feel the need to shout?

You see OUT, LEAVE and NOW in capitals, but very rarely (or never) IN, REMAIN, or AFTER CAREFUL CONSIDERATION.

Just an observation.

Chalky

ICBM;1105744" said:

Chalky said:This is what @ICBM has lost the plot on. If Germany effectively declares a trade war against us (remember that nightly news term?) then it will very quickly turn nasty and German sales will easily plummet on hi-viz items like cars. Plenty of history of trade wars so this is not conjecture.





They don't need to declare a trade war - they simply won't let us back into the single market.

Don't forget that one of the major reasons Japanese car makers are based in the UK is for easy access to the whole European market. If that becomes subject to tariffs, UK-made Japanese cars will also get more expensive in Europe and they will sell less. German (and French and Italian etc) car sales within Europe will actually increase as a result.

Check what the car manufacturers like Nissan and Toyota (who export 80% and 90% of their production respectively, almost all to the EU) have to say.

But changing from no tariffs to tariffs WILL be seen as a trade war. Or do you think they'll just say "Thems the rules", put themselves and us into recession, and everyone else will just go "Oh ok"?

You think like a councillor.

Phil_aka_Pip

for EMPHASIS? it isn't necessarily shouting. THIS IS SHOUTING!

littlegreenman

ToneControl said:

Dyson is right in all the comments he's made

But, what does he know about running a business and exporting?

That you have to offshore in order to be successful?

ToneControl

littlegreenman said:

ToneControl said:

Dyson is right in all the comments he's made

But, what does he know about running a business and exporting?

That you have to offshore in order to be successful?

sometimes, yes

some companies do it well, some do it badly

what's that got to do with this topic?