EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Modulus_Amps

Rocker said:

There is no way that the EU will allow a free border between the UK and the EU following a Brexit. Not a chance my friend.

I imagine this is part of the issue for many. The EU telling neighboring countries what they can and cannot do.

I don't think this will be the case anyway, it will need navigated for sure, but the interests of RoI, NI and the UK will come first.

Fretwired

Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has slammed the door on Britain retaining access to the single market if it votes to the leave the European Union.

In an interview in a Brexit-themed issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the influential veteran politician ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model where it could enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member.

“That won’t work,” Schäuble told Der Spiegel. “It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw.

“If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.” Apparently the UK only accounts for 7% of German exports so Germany wouldn't be too badly damaged.

I'm still voting out as I'm now adding not being threatened by the Germans on my list of reasons to leave.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

ToneControl

Rocker said:

Fretwired said:

Nitefly said:

ToneControl said:

Rocker said:

http://www.rte.ie/aertel/desktopxhtml/112-1.html, seems everybody has 'forgotten' about Northern Ireland in the Brexit debate.

tbh, more people emigrated to the UK recently than the entire population of NI

That's a tad dismissive, @ToneControl - I think @Rocker 's point is that, if UK leaves EU, the border between NI and the Republic becomes an EU entry point.

It's been confirmed that the UK and Ireland have a special agreement dating from 1923 that removes border controls. Should the UK leave the EU there would be no border controls netwen N. Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Such agreements were fine in 1923 or whenever, but the landscape has changed a lot since then. The border between NI and ROI is now bigger than merely between two countries. There is no way that the EU will allow a free border between the UK and the EU following a Brexit. Not a chance my friend. The biggest sufferes will be the people of NI and ROI. And business will become more difficult......

what was the link anyway? it just led me to the homepage for rte

chillidoggy

Fretwired said:

Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has slammed the door on Britain retaining access to the single market if it votes to the leave the European Union.

In an interview in a Brexit-themed issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the influential veteran politician ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model where it could enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member.

“That won’t work,” Schäuble told Der Spiegel. “It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw.

“If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.” Apparently the UK only accounts for 7% of German exports so Germany wouldn't be too badly damaged.

I'm still voting out as I'm now adding not being threatened by the Germans on my list of reasons to leave.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

I agree.

Plus, I refer you to my earlier point about the rows and rows of unsold BMWs and Audis. How's he going to explain that one away? A perfect demonstration of how German ministers can be equally as dense as our homegrown tossers.

ICBM

chillidoggy said:

Plus, I refer you to my earlier point about the rows and rows of unsold BMWs and Audis. How's he going to explain that one away?

Fretwired said:

Apparently the UK only accounts for 7% of German exports so Germany wouldn't be too badly damaged.

There's your answer.

We're much less important to the Germans than the Leavers seem to think we are - or that the EU won't impose tariffs on the UK in case we return the favour, as the Leavers keep telling us.

Bidley

ICBM said:

chillidoggy said:

Plus, I refer you to my earlier point about the rows and rows of unsold BMWs and Audis. How's he going to explain that one away?

Fretwired said:

Apparently the UK only accounts for 7% of German exports so Germany wouldn't be too badly damaged.

There's your answer.

We're much less important to the Germans than the Leavers seem to think we are - or that the EU won't impose tariffs on the UK in case we return the favour, as the Leavers keep telling us.

That's 7% of German exports, not EU exports.

Fretwired

The UK is Germany's third largest export market behind the USA and France.

Fretwired

I wonder if he spoke to the French before making his comments. The UK is a major market for its farmers (we were the biggest at one point).

Bidley

ICBM said:

We're much less important to the Germans than the Leavers seem to think we are

Is that even a reason to stay? Sounds like a massive incentive to leave to me. Why remain in a union in which we're unimportant and clearly of little value?

Modulus_Amps

Well at least according to that German minister if it doesn't all go to plan we can rejoin, so there is very little risk, may as well give it a try.....

ICBM

Bidley said:

That's 7% of German exports, not EU exports.

OK, so how about the other countries? France appears to be 7% too, Italy is 5%. The only countries which send more than 10% of their exports to the UK are Ireland and Cyprus, and the overall total for the whole EU is 16%.

On the other hand 45% of our exports are to the EU.

The Leave idea that the EU won't impose tariffs on the UK in case we retaliate is optimistic. We need them, both individually and collectively, far more than they need us.

(Source: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V1rB5OnhEyF )

Mkjackary

Your source states that we would be the EU's largest export market.

Canada and the EU have no customs duties or tarrifs, and they aren't even in the EU's top 10 countries they export to, we import over ten times more than canada, you see how much of a fuss was made about the canadian deal, how long they fought to get a good deal for both sides.

Why would they do that for canada and then not do that with someone who buys 10 times more...

dtr

Modulus_Amps said:

Well at least according to that German minister if it doesn't all go to plan we can rejoin, so there is very little risk, may as well give it a try.....

Do you think that we could rejoin with all our current opt-outs? 

If we ever do rejoin but have to do it as a standard member with the Euro and all, that would be a world-class fuckup.

ICBM

Mkjackary said:

Why would they do that for canada and then not do that with someone who buys 10 times more...

Because Canada hasn't gone out of its way to piss them off.

dtr said:

Do you think that we could rejoin with all our current opt-outs? 

If we ever do rejoin but have to do it as a standard member with the Euro and all, that would be a world-class fuckup.

But poetic justice...

Bidley

Well the EU sounds like an organisation that has our best interests at heart, we should definitely stay part of it.

/s

ToneControl

ICBM said:

chillidoggy said:

Plus, I refer you to my earlier point about the rows and rows of unsold BMWs and Audis. How's he going to explain that one away?

Fretwired said:

Apparently the UK only accounts for 7% of German exports so Germany wouldn't be too badly damaged.

There's your answer.

We're much less important to the Germans than the Leavers seem to think we are - or that the EU won't impose tariffs on the UK in case we return the favour, as the Leavers keep telling us.

I don't care whether we stay in EFTA, or leave completely

The EU's WTO tariffs are already set at 1.5%, as mentioned previously - not a big deal

ToneControl

ICBM said:

Mkjackary said:

Why would they do that for canada and then not do that with someone who buys 10 times more...

Because Canada hasn't gone out of its way to piss them off.

dtr said:

Do you think that we could rejoin with all our current opt-outs? 

If we ever do rejoin but have to do it as a standard member with the Euro and all, that would be a world-class fuckup.

But poetic justice...

we're all doomed.... I get the message

Modulus_Amps

@dtr said:

Modulus_Amps said:

Well at least according to that German minister if it doesn't all go to plan we can rejoin, so there is very little risk, may as well give it a try.....

Do you think that we could rejoin with all our current opt-outs? 

If we ever do rejoin but have to do it as a standard member with the Euro and all, that would be a world-class fuckup.

Of course not, You missed my flippant sense of humour there, but stay as a 1 foot in 1 foot out member isn't going to work long term either (for the EU) and that is not on the EU agenda.

hugbot

Bidley said:

Well the EU sounds like an organisation that has our best interests at heart, we should definitely stay part of it.

/s

Dealings between nations can't really be thought off as a personal thing. Like "how could you do this! I thought we had a real connection! ". You gotta put that stuff aside and think of it terms of straight up game theory: we leave > it puts them in a position where they can't be seen to give us a better deal out than in, lest it signal the end of the EU project > negotiations get messy when both parties are know those stakes.

Mkjackary

Modulus_Amps said:

@dtr said:

Modulus_Amps said:

Well at least according to that German minister if it doesn't all go to plan we can rejoin, so there is very little risk, may as well give it a try.....

Do you think that we could rejoin with all our current opt-outs? 

If we ever do rejoin but have to do it as a standard member with the Euro and all, that would be a world-class fuckup.

Of course not, You missed my flippant sense of humour there, but stay as a 1 foot in 1 foot out member isn't going to work long term either (for the EU) and that is not on the EU agenda.

I agree, I would rather leave, fail, then rejoin as a full member with euro and everything than stay as a half arsed member.

Better to either leave fully or join fully than our current arrangement. In my opinion atleast.