EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Axe_meister

Modulus_Amps said:

@Axe_meister said:

But if we don't keep the jobs here, where possible they will go offshore.

They have been going offshore for years already, in the manufacturing sector parts of the EU have much better infrastructure and investment in mechanization and automation than has happened in the UK. I know of several firms in Scotland that have closed because EU based manufacturing firms with automated production lines have flooded the market with cheaper goods.

And for the time being cheap labour is keeping some of those jobs in this country.

Unfortunately the UK missed a great opportunity in internal infrastructure investment during the Blair/Brown years with one of the longest boom periods in history (as will all things, the economy balances itself out hence the long bust and recovery).

We had cash to burn unfortunately we did burn it, buy employing every tom/dick/harry into the public sector (and not even front line services where they can make a difference)  

Modulus_Amps

Comparatively , there is no such thing as cheap labour in the UK. We have one of the highest (2cnd highest last time I checked) minimum wages in the EU, hard to be competitive like that. Jobs will go where businesses can make money and if your business is labour intensive much cheaper to be elsewhere.

Fretwired

Modulus_Amps said:

Comparatively , there is no such thing as cheap labour in the UK. We have one of the highest (2cnd highest last time I checked) minimum wages in the EU, hard to be competitive like that. Jobs will go where businesses can make money and if your business is labour intensive much cheaper to be elsewhere.

It depends - we have two local companies that have world beating products and technology. They export all over the world and will continue to manufacture in the UK as they are selling an advanced product. There is a cachet in having British made products. It's about making products people want to buy. If you're making a mass produced commodity product then the only differentiator will be price.

Interesting to see companies are reshoring their businesses from China back to the UK - Golden Wonder has relocated its pot noodle factory back to Leeds.

ToneControl

karltone said:

Where do forum members feel the eurozone economy will be in 3 to 5 years time?

up

Shit Creek

ToneControl

Evilmags said:

Economists at big banks have to be remainers; a three line whip from above. Otherwise it the bin bag at your desk. Every hedge fund economist I know is a brexiter.

probably the most useful post I've seen so far

Axe_meister

Evilmags said:

Economists at big banks have to be remainers; a three line whip from above. Otherwise it the bin bag at your desk. Every hedge fund economist I know is a brexiter.

Is that not because they can do some really creative betting on stock values hitting rock bottom and make a stack of money out of it.

I'd trust a hedge fund economist less that any other one.

Modulus_Amps

Fretwired said:

It depends - we have two local companies that have world beating products and technology. They export all over the world and will continue to manufacture in the UK as they are selling an advanced product. There is a cachet in having British made products. It's about making products people want to buy. If you're making a mass produced commodity product then the only differentiator will be price.

Interesting to see companies are reshoring their businesses from China back to the UK - Golden Wonder has relocated its pot noodle factory back to Leeds.

not sure I get your point, so we are not interested in supporting "widget" makers? or we should only be pursueing advanced products for a sustainable business model?

I am not sure having an advanced product equates to staying loyal to the UK for production, doesn't work that way for allot of high tech equipment anyway... just not a sure thing is all I am saying.

interesting about GW Pot Noodles

chillidoggy

ToneControl said:

karltone said:

Where do forum members feel the eurozone economy will be in 3 to 5 years time?

up

Shit Creek

Sans paddle, too.

Fretwired

Modulus_Amps said:

not sure I get your point, so we are not interested in supporting "widget" makers? or we should only be pursueing advanced products for a sustainable business model?

I am not sure having an advanced product equates to staying loyal to the UK for production, doesn't work that way for allot of high tech equipment anyway... just not a sure thing is all I am saying.

interesting about GW Pot Noodles

A mass commodity product implies other countries are making it. There's no barrier to entry and therefore customers, like retailers, will, everything else being equal, look for a competitive price. A good example is the smartphone industry. Our phones are all made in the Far East - they are commodities which are easy to make and assemble so price is important.

The reverse is true with something like a Bentley. Although owned by a German car maker they are designed and manufactured in the UK. There would be no point building them in China as it would devalue the brand and kill sales. We also lead the world in satellite design and manufacture. Airbus has located it's Space Division in the UK to take advantage of our manufacturing and design skills and scientists.

The UK is innovative which is why the EU may huff and puff but we will get a deal. If we don't BMW will be in trouble. The engines for the 1 and 2 series and most of the 3 series are made in Oxford. And Siemens won't be too pleased as their north east offshore wind turbine plant aims to take advantage of British skills and expertise in designing, manufacturing and exporting blades all over the EU.

We make more things than you think and manufacturing output was up 2% last month. Its falling in most other EU countries (except Germany).

Evilmags

Axe_meister;1103794" said:

Evilmags said:

Economists at big banks have to be remainers; a three line whip from above. Otherwise it the bin bag at your desk. Every hedge fund economist I know is a brexiter.












Is that not because they can do some really creative betting on stock values hitting rock bottom and make a stack of money out of it.I'd trust a hedge fund economist less that any other one.

The bets are so obvious and would be covered by equity and debt analyst, not economists who are paid to provide views to clients of the fund and the manager.

If you think Brexit wins. Go short UK until about two weeks after the referendum. The go short the weak eurozone countries, especially France, afterwards. Use short funds to invest in the UK.

If you think remain wins buy euros and pounds, then sell post referendum.

A graduate trainee could figure that out. Of course unlikely to predict the referendum result.

Rocker

http://www.rte.ie/aertel/desktopxhtml/112-1.html, seems everybody has 'forgotten' about Northern Ireland in the Brexit debate.

chillidoggy

Reference the talk of having to accept free movement with a trade deal if Brexit happens, it might just be the decider where the intransigent EU mandarins would decide they actually DO need to change the constitution. That's what's at the heart of it all - their total unwillingness to change.

Bidley

I've had a few thoughts about this whole thing, and about how remain doesn't appeal to me at all.

Everything I've heard from remain is how Britain couldn't survive outside the EU, how we have nothing to offer the world without the EU holding our hand, and how even the slightest sense of national pride is racism or xenophobia, and should be stamped out.

Obviously I'm making a vast generalisation, and very little of this applies to any of the posts in this thread, but that really is the image I'm getting on social media.

ToneControl

Evilmags said:

Axe_meister;1103794" said:

Evilmags said:

Economists at big banks have to be remainers; a three line whip from above. Otherwise it the bin bag at your desk. Every hedge fund economist I know is a brexiter.












Is that not because they can do some really creative betting on stock values hitting rock bottom and make a stack of money out of it.I'd trust a hedge fund economist less that any other one.

The bets are so obvious and would be covered by equity and debt analyst, not economists who are paid to provide views to clients of the fund and the manager.

If you think Brexit wins. Go short UK until about two weeks after the referendum. The go short the weak eurozone countries, especially France, afterwards. Use short funds to invest in the UK.

If you think remain wins buy euros and pounds, then sell post referendum.

A graduate trainee could figure that out. Of course unlikely to predict the referendum result.

all my pension funds are in OEICs in my SIPP

but I can access 1000+ funds

Would any of them feature shorting in such a narrow way, or is that too tricky to do in a SIPP pension?

ToneControl

Rocker said:

http://www.rte.ie/aertel/desktopxhtml/112-1.html, seems everybody has 'forgotten' about Northern Ireland in the Brexit debate.

tbh, more people emigrated to the UK recently than the entire population of NI

ToneControl

chillidoggy said:

Reference the talk of having to accept free movement with a trade deal if Brexit happens, it might just be the decider where the intransigent EU mandarins would decide they actually DO need to change the constitution. That's what's at the heart of it all - their total unwillingness to change.

I think that if leave win,

the EU will be bending over backwards with ideas that are all intended to get us to stay in the EFTA zone or the EU

They know that we have 2 years to reconsider, so acting like arses from the outset would be idiotic

Also they sell more to us than vv, so it would be idiotic to be arsey

Also the WTO tariffs for the EU are only averaging 1.5% - Big deal, That won't change much in the flow of trade, when compared to currency fluctuations

Evilmags

How a country that pays billions in fees to subsidise wealthy industrial farmers to overproduce, while placing high tariffs on poorer third world agriculture hence artificially raising the price of food for UK consumers loses economically by leaving I don't know. How staying part of such a corporatist racket is thrilling the virtue signallers is even harder to understand.

The two richest countries in Europe are not EU members. Coincidence?

hungrymark

One interesting thing I've noticed is that many people are treating it like a general election, in the sense that they expect people's voting intentions to be influenced by the behaviour of people running the respective campaigns. This isn't about leadership, so just because the leave / remain camps have been manipulating data or fibbing about ramifications doesn't mean that you're stupid to be voting in that direction, provided you have taken these into account when using information to make your decision.

Mkjackary

Evilmags said:

The two richest countries in Europe are not EU members. Coincidence?

Two richest countries in europe are germany (4th), then UK (5th) if going on GDP. Both currently in the EU.

Going by per capita isn't really fair when you have a tiny tax haven like luxembourg with a small population who are 2nd. Also if you are going by per capita then the USA is 13th and china is 88th. Something obviously wrong there.

TTony

I'm just back from a (business) trip to that there "Europe".

In a highly unscientific and unrepresentative sample of the European population (ie the people at the same meeting), the view was that if/when the UK voted "OUT", there'd likely be a domino effect of other countries also voting to leave.

They saw the Germans, French & neighbouring countries (ie Benelux) likely staying together, but the more distant (geographically, economically and culturally) such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc, all heading for an exit due to one pressure or another.  Once that happened, the economic support and attraction that's currently available to the Eastern Europeans & Balkan waiting list would disappear, and the drive to enlarge the EU would be neutralised.

The implication that Europe is some sort of rock-solid integrated group that we'd be daft to leave is flawed.  It's been pulled in many directions, with the Brussels/Strasbourg eurocrats trying to keep it together with their attempts at ever-closer integration to make it harder for it to break apart.  Of course, that means that any break-up just becomes a lot messier.

As I said, not statistically representative, thats the discussion conclusion from a bunch of middle-aged native-European business people.