EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Axe_meister

I was watching the Farage/Cameron debate with my 12 year old.

Now he has no interest in politics (what 12 year old does).

We generally don't talk about politics much at home we try to encourage our kids to
make up their own mind rather than us steering them in our direction

But boy did he form a bad opinion about Farage, to him Cameron came across as somebody you can trust.

UnclePsychosis

I think I'm going to start a Tinfoil hat company, because if Remain wins on the 23rd the conspiracy theories are going to get better and better.

Missed my opportunity with the independence referendum, won't make that mistake again!

hugbot

eSully said:

Fretwired said:

A question for the Remainers.

Supposing there's a recession in the EU (many banks are forecasting this) - what happens if the net 330,000 immigrants per annum increases to say 500,000 or 700,000 immigrants? What happens if because the UK is doing well the UK has to pay billions more (membership contributions to the EU are calculated on the basis of gross national income, if that goes up because the economy is doing well then so do the dues owed to Brussels).

Just interested to know if you think it a price worth paying for membership of the EU (serious question - not interested in a long debate on immigration as this is hypothetical). I just wondered if there's an upper limit on immigration that might sway people.

I think @DigitalScream kinda answered the question. Large scale Immigration is obviously becoming an increasing issue across the Eurozone and you can't help but feel something will have to give in the future whether the UK is in or out. What I would suggest is that immigration levels will not be effected by this vote. We will keep free movement. This dramatic closure of borders and Australian points system simply won't happen either way so moving to reform from within is the better option.

This is the thing, I can accept legitimate concern about immigration and the effects on workers from an influx of cheap labour etc.

But... I have a strong suspicion that leaving isn't going to get the leavers what they want. If we end up with a deal to trade with the EU like norway, we'll likely have to accept a free movement agreement like norway. We could have a big problem with illegal immigration if people wan't to come here that bad.

Chalky

@hugbot said -
But... I have a strong suspicion that leaving isn't going to get the leavers what they want. If we end up with a deal to trade with the EU like norway, we'll likely have to accept a free movement agreement like norway."

No. How can the EU force the UK to accept free movement of people? By threatening what?

By threatening to refuse to trade with us? Because of the trade deficit, that would hurt them more than us!

It would be like Juncker saying "Accept free movement or else.....I......will, er, shoot my own foot! That will teach you Brits!

This is beyond comical that people believe this rubbish.....

Chalky

Hands up all those people who think the EU can 'hurt' the UK if we vote Leave?

Hands up all those people who think the EU would TRY to 'hurt' the UK if we vote Leave?

digitalscream

Chalky said:

@hugbot said -
But... I have a strong suspicion that leaving isn't going to get the leavers what they want. If we end up with a deal to trade with the EU like norway, we'll likely have to accept a free movement agreement like norway."

No. How can the EU force the UK to accept free movement of people? By threatening what?

By threatening to refuse to trade with us? Because of the trade deficit, that would hurt them more than us!

It would be like Juncker saying "Accept free movement or else.....I......will, er, shoot my own foot! That will teach you Brits!

This is beyond comical that people believe this rubbish.....

It's easy - they'd do it by simply withholding favourable trade terms unless we agreed to it. That's the way negotiation works.

Without that...why do you think Norway would've agreed to it? They have higher immigration per capita than we do, so there would have to have been something in it for them in order for them to accept it.

Unless, of course, you just think that the Norwegians are idiots.

ICBM

ToneControl said:

Voting and politics is a sleazy business, and this is just another example of it, please don't try to dress it up as virtuousness on the part of the govt (i.e. the remain campaign)  

I'm not. I just don't think it's a deliberate conspiracy either.

As I said, I do find it funny that the Leave campaign is crying foul already when they haven't even lost yet - and are the ones who have actually been caught trying to manipulate the registration, which may well be illegal as well as immoral.

I really do want everyone to vote, whichever side they're on. The bigger the turnout, the more legitimate the result - whichever it is.

digitalscream

Chalky said:

Hands up all those people who think the EU can 'hurt' the UK if we vote Leave?

Hands up all those people who think the EU would TRY to 'hurt' the UK if we vote Leave?

The EU don't have to try to hurt us (although they can, by simply refusing to give favourable terms in trade agreements - and any other negotiations - en-masse). The financial markets are already doing that - £59bn of investment capital left the country in March, which equates to 3% of our GDP. Compare that to £0.16bn the previous year.

How sustainable do you think that is?

Chalky

digitalscream;1103344" said:

Chalky said:

@hugbot said -

But... I have a strong suspicion that leaving isn't going to get the leavers what they want. If we end up with a deal to trade with the EU like norway, we'll likely have to accept a free movement agreement like norway."



No. How can the EU force the UK to accept free movement of people? By threatening what?



By threatening to refuse to trade with us? Because of the trade deficit, that would hurt them more than us!



It would be like Juncker saying "Accept free movement or else.....I......will, er, shoot my own foot! That will teach you Brits!



This is beyond comical that people believe this rubbish.....














It's easy - they'd do it by simply withholding favourable trade terms unless we agreed to it. That's the way negotiation works.

Without that...why do you think Norway would've agreed to it? They have higher immigration per capita than we do, so there would have to have been something in it for them in order for them to accept it.

Unless, of course, you just think that the Norwegians are idiots.

How can they withhold favourable trade terms? You are still talking this nonsense that trade is something THEY do with us!

Trade is birectional and bilateral. We get to lay out the terms as much as they do. THAT is the way negotiation works.

Be honest, you've never done any peer-to-peer negotiation, have you?

Evilmags

Economists at big banks have to be remainers; a three line whip from above. Otherwise it the bin bag at your desk. Every hedge fund economist I know is a brexiter.

digitalscream

Chalky said:

How can they withhold favourable trade terms? You are still talking this nonsense that trade is something THEY do with us!

Trade is birectional and bilateral. We get to lay out the terms as much as they do. THAT is the way negotiation works.

Be honest, you've never done any peer-to-peer negotiation, have you?

Yes I have, and here's the thing - they've already set out their stall as to how those negotiations will go should we leave (because Europe needs to prevent others leaving). Hell, they could refuse to even come to the table; even in being fair to us, they'd have much more to lose than just the negotiated terms.

Besides, such trade will be far more important to us than it is to them (in simple percentage terms), so they have more to bargain with.

Still, you won't accept any argument which doesn't agree with yours anyway, so we'll just see how it goes.

karltone

Where do forum members feel the eurozone economy will be in 3 to 5 years time?

hugbot

Chalky said:

Be honest, you've never done any peer-to-peer negotiation, have you?

Chalky, is it within the realm of possibilities that you debate an issue impartially without sounding like a condescending cunt? 

Modulus_Amps

digitalscream said:

Still, you won't accept any argument which doesn't agree with yours anyway, so we'll just see how it goes.

much wisdom.....27 pages of it so far, don't think any one here is changing there mind now

Mkjackary

So if we leave, tariffs could be put on imports and exports, that means german cars and spanish omelettes etc would be more expensive than before.... Right? 

Therefore would it be fair to say that english cars and scottish omelets etc would be better priced in comparison, therefore will be bought more (by the british public), first of all boosting the british companies, and second of all, due to the increased production of british products they can be made cheaper which will increase the price difference more.  

Of course this would go the other way too, british products would be more expensive in the eu, but the rest of the world have tariffs and trade deals with us (albeit via the eu). Potentially even we could negotiate better deals with countries that the eu have failed for years to make deals with, or countries we have a great history with that we could form better deals with as we are closer than the eu is with them. 

Is that fair to say or is that wrong somewhere?

Fretwired

digitalscream said:

Chalky said:

@hugbot said -
But... I have a strong suspicion that leaving isn't going to get the leavers what they want. If we end up with a deal to trade with the EU like norway, we'll likely have to accept a free movement agreement like norway."

No. How can the EU force the UK to accept free movement of people? By threatening what?

By threatening to refuse to trade with us? Because of the trade deficit, that would hurt them more than us!

It would be like Juncker saying "Accept free movement or else.....I......will, er, shoot my own foot! That will teach you Brits!

This is beyond comical that people believe this rubbish.....

It's easy - they'd do it by simply withholding favourable trade terms unless we agreed to it. That's the way negotiation works.

Without that...why do you think Norway would've agreed to it? They have higher immigration per capita than we do, so there would have to have been something in it for them in order for them to accept it.

Unless, of course, you just think that the Norwegians are idiots.

Norway is a small country with a big resource - oil. They need highly skilled migrants to keep the oil platforms and infrastructure running and like the UK they need people to work in bars, restaurants and healthcare.

The UK needs immigrants - not even the Leave mob are saying we don't. I just think we should have a say on who comes in and have the ability to cap numbers for a particular year if we are swamped. Migrants have flooded to my area - local businesses needed them which is fine. I have no problem with people coming to the UK to work. However where I live the roads are congested and can't cope at rush hour, our only motorway is two lanes for a large section and in the mornings/evenings can have 20 mile tailbacks and slow moving traffic. Our nearest hospital has been forced to close AE a number of times (I say local as my town had a good hospital - it got closed). It's just chaos due to a lack of infrastructure.

Due to the way our planning laws work it will be 2030 before anything might be done with the motorway and the 67,000 new houses that are needed and that are in a local plan will take years to build as most will be on Green Belt land so there are the usual suspects trying to block it.

Some bright spark has suggested a new town but it's on Green Belt land and by the time it's designed and built it will be 2040.

It's a quality of life issue.

Chalky

hugbot;1103415" said:

Chalky said:





Be honest, you've never done any peer-to-peer negotiation, have you?





Chalky, is it within the realm of possibilities that you debate an issue impartially without sounding like a condescending cunt? 

If someone talks out their arse, then its hard not to. When they talk out their arse and refuse to get even vaguely detailed about their argument ("they could refuse to come to the table", what the hell does that mean?) then its even harder.

I get it that lots of arse-talkers think the EU could hurt us if we vote Leave, I'd just like them to plug their arse-water for a moment and say in true practical terms exactly what the EU would do.

Trade happens today and will happen after voting day. What will the EU practically do that will hinder UK goods & services going to them and EU goods & services coming here.

Sans arse-water, merci! )

Mkjackary

as I stand I am 75% for leave.

Staying in is less risky but the outcome isn't in our control.

Leaving is a lot more risky, but we at least have the potential to govern ourselves to minimise the risk, and the potential for the UK, I believe, is greater.

However the fate of the UK if we leave is partially in our hands due to being able to govern our selves fully, but is then also potentially more out of our hands than when in the EU as it entirely hinges on how countries like china, india, japan, and the EU treat us post EU exit. If they decide to dig their heels in and make it awkward, and if the EU are resentful, then we will almost certainly be getting worse deals than when in the EU, especially with countries inside the EU.

Their decision isn't in our control, but then again if we stay in the EU none of the trade deals are in our control (well, all are at most 8% in our control, potentially a considerable amount less depending on how you calculate it).

Axe_meister

To me immigration in itself is not a concern. 

It is how we manage it. Our biggest problem being our centralised society.

i.e. London/Birmingham being the major hubs. Hence all the issues we are seeing.

If we could disperse the jobs around the country We'd hardly even know.

As I've said before. They are coming here for jobs, yes at the expense of overall wage deflation.

But if we don't keep the jobs here, where possible they will go offshore.

Modulus_Amps

@Axe_meister said:

But if we don't keep the jobs here, where possible they will go offshore.

They have been going offshore for years already, in the manufacturing sector parts of the EU have much better infrastructure and investment in mechanization and automation than has happened in the UK. I know of several firms in Scotland that have closed because EU based manufacturing firms with automated production lines have flooded the market with cheaper goods.