So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

octatonic

richardhomer said:

quarky;1133674" said:

A fall in house prices is good for many existing home owners because it makes it easier to trade up. It is also good for first time buyers.

Theoretically right - but in practice wrong.

Those siting in bigger houses simply stay put until prices recover - thereby preventing people in smaller houses from moving up.

First time buyers were faced with the need to provide massive deposits in the Credit Crunch because high loan-to-value mortgages were unavaible, as banks aimed to cushion themselves against future falls in property values. 20% of 90% of today's prices is a lot more in pound-amount terms than 5% of current values....

Dramatic 'shock-driven' house-price falls always knacker the economy, in my experience.

Very much so.

And BTL landlords swoop in and pick up housing stock cheap.

The only people who sell when it drops tends to be people who have to- defaults/probates/relocations.

siremoon

Standard & Poor have just cut the EU's credit rating. 

exocet

siremoon;1133813" said:

Standard & Poor have just cut the EU's credit rating. 

That's no surprise, the impact of Brexit will be global.

quarky

richardhomer said:

quarky;1133674" said:

A fall in house prices is good for many existing home owners because it makes it easier to trade up. It is also good for first time buyers.

Theoretically right - but in practice wrong.

Those siting in bigger houses simply stay put until prices recover - thereby preventing people in smaller houses from moving up.

First time buyers were faced with the need to provide massive deposits in the Credit Crunch because high loan-to-value mortgages were unavaible, as banks aimed to cushion themselves against future falls in property values. 20% of 90% of today's prices is a lot more in pound-amount terms than 5% of current values....

Dramatic 'shock-driven' house-price falls always knacker the economy, in my experience.

We are not talking about dramatic shock-driven house prise falls though with "emergency budgets", "nobody to pick apples", "the coal mines having to open", "and MPs introducing new rules to make life more difficult." While we could well have a 2008 style crisis, things are looking fairly calm all thinks considered, at least here, now.

A rise interest rates isn't going to have that 2008 like effect (well, unless the Eurozone goes mental again, it is like a swamped boat), so a fall in house prices through rates rises is going to be fairly ordered in comparison, and unlikely to make people stay-put to the same degree.

paulmapp8306 said:

I cant see a fall in house prices though - isnt that price primarily determined by supply and demand?  Im pretty sure the demand is much higher than the supply is (covered on BBC4 a couple of days ago, that house price falls were very unlikley).

Yep. I said that before the referendum. Supply and demand makes a huge difference. Good for those of us who already have property, but we are screwing over our children in so many ways.

siremoon

exocet said:

siremoon;1133813" said:

Standard & Poor have just cut the EU's credit rating. 

That's no surprise, the impact of Brexit will be global.

Indeed.  A timely demonstration that the EU don't hold all the cards in this.

skankdelvar

Oh no! We've been downgraded! The shame!

At AA we're doomed to be languishing alongside those notorious basket-cases Belgium, France, New Zealand, South Korea and Kuwait. But at least we're still above festering economic hellholes like Poland, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Looking at those charts, Ken, Jez and Sean Penn should be very worried; Venezuela's rated CCC.

Viva la revolucion!

richardhomer

quarky;1133831" said:

We are not talking about dramatic shock-driven house prise falls though with "emergency budgets", "nobody to pick apples", "the coal mines having to open", "and MPs introducing new rules to make life more difficult." While we could well have a 2008 style crisis, things are looking fairly calm all thinks considered, at least here, now.

A rise interest rates isn't going to have that 2008 like effect (well, unless the Eurozone goes mental again, it is like a swamped boat), so a fall in house prices through rates rises is going to be fairly ordered in comparison, and unlikely to make people stay-put to the same degree.

No - I fundamentally disagree with you.

House price falls are never 'ordered' - they reflect a serve loss of economic confidence - if you've watched the news today, the Governor of the Bank of England is talking about cutting interest rates - not increasing them - if they thought everything was hunky dory, they would not be contemplating a rise.

A close friend of mine - who owns an estate agency business in a wealthy part of South Manchester told me today that 'the phone has stopped ringing' - both from new buyer and potential sellers. That's real feedback on the market, from someone who's lived and worked in the same town from over 10 years.

Just to remind you - rates have not gone up - and these a strong possibility they will fall. Brexit has brought about a dramatic change in sentiment. The question is how long it will last. Stagnant/stable prices are fine - falling ones indicate trouble ahead.

quarky

richardhomer said:

quarky;1133831" said:

We are not talking about dramatic shock-driven house prise falls though with "emergency budgets", "nobody to pick apples", "the coal mines having to open", "and MPs introducing new rules to make life more difficult." While we could well have a 2008 style crisis, things are looking fairly calm all thinks considered, at least here, now.

A rise interest rates isn't going to have that 2008 like effect (well, unless the Eurozone goes mental again, it is like a swamped boat), so a fall in house prices through rates rises is going to be fairly ordered in comparison, and unlikely to make people stay-put to the same degree.

No - I fundamentally disagree with you.

House price falls are never 'ordered' - they reflect a serve loss of economic confidence - if you've watched the news today, the Governor of the Bank of England is talking about cutting interest rates - not increasing them - if they thought everything was hunky dory, they would not be contemplating a rise.

I said ordered in comparison. Everything is definitely not hunky dory, there is still a lot of uncertainly, and who knows what could happen tomorrow/Monday/August/December. But at the moment at least, this is no 2008 style crash.

A close friend of mine - who owns an estate agency business in a wealthy part of South Manchester told me today that 'the phone has stopped ringing' - both from new buyer and potential sellers. That's real feedback on the market, from someone who's lived and worked in the same town from over 10 years.

Just to remind you - rates have not gone up - and these a strong possibility they will fall. Brexit has brought about a dramatic change in sentiment. The question is how long it will last. Stagnant/stable prices are fine - falling ones indicate trouble ahead.

Sure, but for a few days? A week? Let's see how things are in longer than 6 days..

ICBM

skankdelvar said:

Oh no! We've been downgraded! The shame!

At AA we're doomed to be languishing alongside those notorious basket-cases Belgium, France, New Zealand, South Korea and Kuwait. But at least we're still above festering economic hellholes like Poland, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

You can laugh and think it doesn't mean much, but it does matter. The downgrading of the rating will mean we're charged more interest on government borrowing. Considering that the interest payments on the national debt are the fourth largest single component of public spending, that directly impacts the relationship between tax and public services.

quarky

I thought borrowing was actually cheaper since Brexit. I will have to see if I can find a link.

octatonic

ICBM said:

skankdelvar said:

Oh no! We've been downgraded! The shame!

At AA we're doomed to be languishing alongside those notorious basket-cases Belgium, France, New Zealand, South Korea and Kuwait. But at least we're still above festering economic hellholes like Poland, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

You can laugh and think it doesn't mean much, but it does matter. The downgrading of the rating will mean we're charged more interest on government borrowing. Considering that the interest payments on the national debt are the fourth largest single component of public spending, that directly impacts the relationship between tax and public services.

Exactly.

And this illustrates the problem.

Some people are ridiculously ignorant of the consequences of voting out.

It should never have been put to the people to decide.

richardhomer

octatonic;1133912" said:

It should never have been put to the people to decide.

Spot on. I posted this on Facebook about this time last week:

'Final pre-result thought for the day....

I know a lot of people view this referendum as democratic - but democracy is being able to elect a government, which governs on our behalf. Today risks a bad decision being made, based on misinformation and emotive scare-mongering.

I hope I'm wrong....'

I wasn't. It's been the most almighty of political fuck-ups....

skankdelvar

ICBM said:

skankdelvar said:

Oh no! We've been downgraded! The shame!

At AA we're doomed to be languishing alongside those notorious basket-cases Belgium, France, New Zealand, South Korea and Kuwait. But at least we're still above festering economic hellholes like Poland, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

You can laugh and think it doesn't mean much, but it does matter. The downgrading of the rating will mean we're charged more interest on government borrowing. Considering that the interest payments on the national debt are the fourth largest single component of public spending, that directly impacts the relationship between tax and public services.

Ah, but the propositions are not mutually exclusive; I can laugh yet still think it matters. That's why I went and looked at the ratings to assess our relative position vis a vis other nations. Which, on scrutiny, suggest we're some way yet from flat-liner status.

Of course, one of the reasons we dropped a(nother) notch today was Carney's sensible and measured statement  that he may - note, may - deploy QE over the coming months. If he needs to. Which he hasn't. Yet.

Our downgrading is due not to an actual decline in our economic fundamentals (trade, productivity, GDP) but a shift in perceptions by distant analysts who can change their mind either way at the drop of a hat.

Glass half-full sort of chap, that's me. It's the only way to be. :-)

skankdelvar

quarky said:

I thought borrowing was actually cheaper since Brexit. I will have to see if I can find a link.

Bond yields went down a couple of days ago then went back up today when Carney mentioned quantitative easing. The more I see of that fellow the more I like him.

Markets schmarkets.

octatonic

ICBM

skankdelvar said:

Ah, but the propositions are not mutually exclusive; I can laugh yet still think it matters. That's why I went and looked at the ratings to assess our relative position vis a vis other nations. Which, on scrutiny, suggest we're some way yet from flat-liner status.

Of course, one of the reasons we dropped a(nother) notch today was Carney's sensible and measured statement  that he may - note, may - deploy QE over the coming months. If he needs to. Which he hasn't. Yet.

Our downgrading is due not to an actual decline in our economic fundamentals (trade, productivity, GDP) but a shift in perceptions by distant analysts who can change their mind either way at the drop of a hat.

Glass half-full sort of chap, that's me. It's the only way to be. :-)

Point taken . I've been getting quite surrealist about some of this too .

Of course it's also worth pointing out that the reason the rating matters more here than in some other countries is because of the colossal amount of debt we're in. It's only because the national debt is more than one and a half trillion pounds, or over 80% of GDP, that the interest on it is so enormous and such a large part of expenditure. Thanks, Gordon.

skankdelvar

octatonic said:

And this illustrates the problem.

Some people are ridiculously ignorant of the consequences of voting out.

It should never have been put to the people to decide.

richardhomer said:

Spot on. I posted this on Facebook about this time last week:

'Final pre-result thought for the day....

I know a lot of people view this referendum as democratic - but democracy is being able to elect a government, which governs on our behalf. Today risks a bad decision being made, based on misinformation and emotive scare-mongering.

I hope I'm wrong....'

Just as well I voted Remain, then. I really wouldn't want to be bracketed with the stupid, uneducated poor people who've simply ruined things for the pampered bourgeoisie and their gun dogs.

I mean, the awful rabble have got nothing to live for so they decide to take it out on 'well-educated', well-travelled high status people like me. God knows, I may have to sell little Athena's pony and cancel her Mandarin Chinese lessons.

octatonic

skankdelvar said:

octatonic said:

And this illustrates the problem.

Some people are ridiculously ignorant of the consequences of voting out.

It should never have been put to the people to decide.

Just as well I voted Remain, then. I really wouldn't want to be bracketed with the stupid, uneducated poor people who've simply ruined it for the pampered bourgeoisie and their gun dogs.

I mean, the awful rabble have got nothing so they decide to spoil it for 'well-educated', well-travelled high status people like me. God knows, I may have to sell little Athena's pony and cancel her Mandarin Chinese lessons.

Hmmmm Strawman- I must have touched a nerve.

I don't have a gun dog- I have a bulldog.

Isn't she a cutey?

skankdelvar

octatonic said:

skankdelvar said:

octatonic said:

And this illustrates the problem.

Some people are ridiculously ignorant of the consequences of voting out.

It should never have been put to the people to decide.

Just as well I voted Remain, then. I really wouldn't want to be bracketed with the stupid, uneducated poor people who've simply ruined it for the pampered bourgeoisie and their gun dogs.

I mean, the awful rabble have got nothing so they decide to spoil it for 'well-educated', well-travelled high status people like me. God knows, I may have to sell little Athena's pony and cancel her Mandarin Chinese lessons.

Hmmmm Strawman- I must have touched a nerve.

I don't have a gun dog- I have a bulldog.

Isn't she a cutey?

She's a lovely dog for sure. :-)

As for the strawman thing - well,  I'm not the one suggesting that certain people are ridiculously ignorant and should not be allowed to vote. Mind you, you're not the one celebrating his prescience and quoting himself off facebook; so you've got that in your favour. 

On another matter: did anyone ever suggest if you shaved your beard off you'd look a bit like Michael Gove? That's a compliment, by the way, honest. I like the chap.

richardhomer

skankdelvar;1133954" said:

Just as well I voted Remain, then. I really wouldn't want to be bracketed with the stupid, uneducated poor people who've simply ruined things for the pampered bourgeoisie and their gun dogs.

I mean, the awful rabble have got nothing to live for so they decide to take it out on 'well-educated', well-travelled high status people like me. God knows, I may have to sell little Athena's pony and cancel her Mandarin Chinese lessons.

Listen mate - you've picked the wrong person for that kind of shit.

I was born in one of the poorest parts of Manchester - I was decrying no one voting - my concern was with the campaign.

I do not - and never will - equate being poor with being stupid.

You are bang out of order.