Corbyn - I don't get it

jpfamps

I can't see how Corbyn won't win; Angela Eagle is not a convincing candidate, and although the NEC has tried to prevent entryism by putting a deadline for £3 members voting, I think there is already enough support amongst the Labour Party members to see him home.

There is talk of mass resignation of moderate MPs to provoke by-elections. Whether they will stand as Labour Party candidates or a new party, who knows.

Any split from the Labour Party is likely to much more substantial than the Gang of Four in 1981.

It's all very reminiscent of the early 80s.......

ESchap

Labour had a severe case of the Trots and I fear it will now be terminal.

Philly_Q

jpfamps said:

I can't see how Corbyn won't win; Angela Eagle is not a convincing candidate, and although the NEC has tried to prevent entryism by putting a deadline for £3 members voting, I think there is already enough support amongst the Labour Party members to see him home.

I'm beginning to wonder if it's even possible to unseat him as leader.

He's determined to stay on because he has an overwhelming mandate from the members of the party - which seems, if anything, to be growing.  He apparently doesn't give a hoot that 80% of the parliamentary party want him out, or that the general, non-affiliated voting public don't seem to see him as a credible potential PM.

Even if he loses a general election I suspect the party members will still support him, so will he stick to his guns even then?  It could be a job for life.

axisus

Once again, the Tories trump labour. Disarray after the referendum and yet they have sorted a new leader already and all looks positive. Labour look like total chumps

Clarky

I think the prob with most of the Labour party MP's is that they look like shite in the pics and on the telly
the last elected Labour leader didn't look like shite
but he ended up being shite
and although he looks like shite today by his own standards, he still looks less shite than what's on offer today..

Garthy

Clarky said:

I think the prob with most of the Labour party MP's is that they look like shite in the pics and on the telly
the last elected Labour leader didn't look like shite
but he ended up being shite
and although he looks like shite today by his own standards, he still looks less shite than what's on offer today..

I couldn't listen to Ed without retching. He just sounded like he needed to swallow lots of phlegm when he spoke but didn't want to interrupt himself.

Ro_S

jpfamps said:

There is no evidence of any achievements in Jeremy Corbyn's career to date (either academically or politically)

But he never had a career as an academic?

octatonic

Labour are a mess- Owen Smith is running now.
Can't they see that this is splitting the vote?

ICBM

octatonic said:

Labour are a mess- Owen Smith is running now.
Can't they see that this is splitting the vote?

No, it's the other way round.

If Corbyn doesn't win outright in the first round - unlikely anyway - the last-place candidate's second preference votes are redistributed, and it's a near certainty that they won't be for Corbyn.

More candidates actually gives more chance of beating him, if there's one who unexpectedly proves popular with the party.

octatonic

ICBM said:

octatonic said:

Labour are a mess- Owen Smith is running now.
Can't they see that this is splitting the vote?

No, it's the other way round.

If Corbyn doesn't win outright in the first round - unlikely anyway - the last-place candidate's second preference votes are redistributed, and it's a near certainty that they won't be for Corbyn.

More candidates actually gives more chance of beating him, if there's one who unexpectedly proves popular with the party.

Ah, that makes more sense.
So the Labour party uses a PR/AV/2nd pref style voting system for its own party but doesn't support it for the country?

ToneControl

jpfamps said:

I can't see how Corbyn won't win; Angela Eagle is not a convincing candidate, and although the NEC has tried to prevent entryism by putting a deadline for £3 members voting, I think there is already enough support amongst the Labour Party members to see him home.

There is talk of mass resignation of moderate MPs to provoke by-elections. Whether they will stand as Labour Party candidates or a new party, who knows.

Any split from the Labour Party is likely to much more substantial than the Gang of Four in 1981.

It's all very reminiscent of the early 80s.......

I read it's going to be £25 this time to vote, including for the people who joined since January

I agree, Eagle is only a little better than Corbyn . I can't see her as a leader, or as an election -winner

I'm not sure  what tactic would be best for the PLP. I have heard that Momentum are plotting deselection for any or all of the anti-Corbyn-PLP. If so, I think this would provoke resignations from the party - why wait for 2020 when you can try to bed-in something new?

If 170 of them went,  I think they'd stand more chance of retaining their seats as a new party that   joining the Libs  - they'd inherit all the Clegg crap, and would  need to take it over entirely.    
What name? "independent labour",   was used already. I think "People's party" would do it

ICBM

octatonic said:

So the Labour party uses a PR/AV/2nd pref style voting system for its own party but doesn't support it for the country?

Of course. Where would they be without a little hypocrisy?

Actually in a better position now, they may be in a coalition government or at least there wouldn't be a Tory majority. Short-termism at its finest when they helped defeat electoral reform.

ToneControl said:

If 170 of them went,  I think they'd stand more chance of retaining their seats as a new party that   joining the Libs  - they'd inherit all the Clegg crap, and would  need to take it over entirely.    
What name? "independent labour",   was used already. I think "People's party" would do it

Apart from sounding trite and meaningless, I think there's at least one far-right party in Europe that uses that name.

I assume the Lib Dems still own the SDP name, but I'm not sure - if they don't it would still be a good choice since that's the usual name for a centre-left party elsewhere too.

I still think a better idea would be to join the Lib Dems and then take it over. There's four years to go until the election, plenty of time to dump Farron.

ToneControl

ToneControl said:

If 170 of them went,  I think they'd stand more chance of retaining their seats as a new party that   joining the Libs  - they'd inherit all the Clegg crap, and would  need to take it over entirely.    
What name? "independent labour",   was used already. I think "People's party" would do it

Apart from sounding trite and meaningless, I think there's at least one far-right party in Europe that uses that name.

I assume the Lib Dems still own the SDP name, but I'm not sure - if they don't it would still be a good choice since that's the usual name for a centre-left party elsewhere too.

I still think a better idea would be to join the Lib Dems and then take it over. There's four years to go until the election, plenty of time to dump Farron.

I think the Libs are too tainted
Better to start something new  and woo the Lib ex-voters and voters
Hard work to find a name though: can't really use democrat, worker's, social, Labour
"National party" worked for the Scots though....

Clarky

Garthy said:

Clarky said:

I think the prob with most of the Labour party MP's is that they look like shite in the pics and on the telly
the last elected Labour leader didn't look like shite
but he ended up being shite
and although he looks like shite today by his own standards, he still looks less shite than what's on offer today..

I couldn't listen to Ed without retching. He just sounded like he needed to swallow lots of phlegm when he spoke but didn't want to interrupt himself.

it matters…
people really do read the book by the cover

ICBM

ToneControl said:

"National party" worked for the Scots though....

Way too dangerous to be potentially associated with 'English nationalism' - even in Scotland the 'national socialist' jibe is sometimes used.

Something to do with Progressive, maybe… it would set them apart from Conservative, at least.

ToneControl

someone had fun writing this:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/12/labour-leadership-nec-jeremy-corbyn

Ro_S

ICBM said:

More candidates actually gives more chance of beating him, if there's one who unexpectedly proves popular with the party.

i dont see it that way. it depends who the candidates are, but that isn't what happened year: several similar candidates meant the anti-corbyn vote was split.   

TTony

ToneControl said:

What name? "independent labour",  

How about ...


... New Labour??



I think it will end up as a split.  The positions are too entrenched now for either side to allow the other to win, or even to appear to win.

So, Corbyn carries on with the union's backing as the "democratically elected leader" of a small pressure group party that eventually disappears because the electorate realise that a pressure group party actually needs to have some credibility and presence to be able to exert pressure.

The majority of the current Labour MPs leave to form a new party because they want to keep their jobs as MPs and realise that standing as candidates as part of a Corbyn "led" party means that they'll probably be beaten by the Tories, UKIP, the LibDems, the independent candidate, the save our hedgehogs party candidate and anyone else who chose to stand in the constituency.

The interesting thing is who inherits the current Labour Party machinery.  So, all the local constituency organisation, the "brand", the HQ offices, any funds that they have in the bank, et al.  I'm guessing that the leavers forfeit the right to any of the tangible assets (which will be formally owned by the Labour Party), and have to persuade the intangibles (members, local organisations, etc) to move with them.

They then need to agree on what their manifesto (etc) is - it's easy to agree on what you don't like/want, but far less easy to agree on what you do like/want - without creating further splinter groups.  That will require real leadership, credibility and popularity, both within the PLP (or what that becomes) and then with the general electorate via the media.  That can't really be achieved by a committee (think gang of 4 for anyone old enough to remember) - it needs the Blair / Johnson style charisma and ability to be popular.

I'm not aware of anyone within the current Labour Party with that sort of personality / ability.

ToneControl

Ro_S said:

ICBM said:

More candidates actually gives more chance of beating him, if there's one who unexpectedly proves popular with the party.

i dont see it that way. it depends who the candidates are, but that isn't what happened year: several similar candidates meant the anti-corbyn vote was split.   

it made no difference,  it's done on STV, and he got more than half the votes anyway

Probably an idea to throw up some candidates who might appeal to the Corbyn voters

Ro_S

ToneControl said:

it made no difference,  

It very almost did, though.  He polled only just over half; it could easily have been different.

ToneControl said:

Probably an idea to throw up some candidates who might appeal to the Corbyn voters

i dont see that happening.  the real lefty MPs are almost all Corbyn supporters and wont want to stand to compete against him.