What next after Trump?

ICBM

iseverynamegone said:

FWIW I reckon Trump will get in, I reckon Le Pen will get in and just hope Germany remains centre left. 

I don't think Le Pen will get in. The great advantage of the French two-round system is that it becomes very obvious who the enemy is in the second round. Last time when old Le Pen got to the second round, he was defeated by Chirac with the biggest landslide in French history because everyone even remotely to the left of Le Pen voted for Chirac, whether they liked him or not.

Mkjackary

RaymondLin said:

What I don't understand is how people are voting for him.

fair enough you can be right wing and find his political stance agreeable.

fair enough you can't stand the current establishment and you want to throw a stick into the cogs.

fair enough you like someone who seemingly shoot from the hips.

fair enough you like a bully who spends half his time coming up with nicknames for his opponents.

but are they so blind not to see through all the lies and bullshit and the general low IQ in both speech level and answers to questions in interviews? There have been various studies to show that on average 93% of the stuff he say are lies.  There have been studied to show his speech level is of a 9 year old.  There are many interviews where his answers just made no sense and he just simply make up words on the spot...."bigly"!

See I agree, but the alternative is a witch in sheep's clothing. Atleast with trump you instantly know he is a cunt. Some people think Hilary is all lovey and left and liberal, when tbh trump is probably the more liberal of the two.

Plus if trump does stupid shit, the republicans won't let it go through office, but if Hilary was doing stupid shit the democrats would let it through with the help of some republicans.

Like, he would get his wall, which isn't that bad tbh their borders need some updating, but Mexico won't pay for it. And all it will do is reduce illegal immigration and the flow of drugs.

Stuff like banning all Muslims "untill we know what is going on" wouldn't get through. 


Please don't start thinking I love trump, because I don't, I just *detest* Hilary. And trump is the lesser of the two evils.


Plus trump would make the world hate American a little bit more, so Chinese and Japanese who want western cars etc will buy a Bentley instead of a bummer say, maybe.

Garthy

ICBM said:

iseverynamegone said:

FWIW I reckon Trump will get in, I reckon Le Pen will get in and just hope Germany remains centre left. 

I don't think Le Pen will get in. The great advantage of the French two-round system is that it becomes very obvious who the enemy is in the second round. Last time when old Le Pen got to the second round, he was defeated by Chirac with the biggest landslide in French history because everyone even remotely to the left of Le Pen voted for Chirac, whether they liked him or not.

The political rule book has been ripped up. 18 months ago Le Pen, Trump and Brexit wouldn't have even got a passing mention. A far right Austrian party lost a general election by such a small amount there is a re-election soon. Personally I wouldn't bet against either candidates wining their respective elections.

ICBM

Garthy said:

The political rule book has been ripped up. 18 months ago Le Pen, Trump and Brexit wouldn't have even got a passing mention. A far right Austrian party lost a general election by such a small amount there is a re-election soon. Personally I wouldn't bet against either candidates wining their respective elections.

Not really. 18 months ago, Cameron had to promise an EU referendum to see off (as he saw it) UKIP and the vote was only very narrowly lost; 14 years ago Jean-Marie Le Pen got to the second round (which he thought was an achievement, but the humiliation of Chirac's landslide was worth it), and lunatic right-wing populist candidates in the US Presidential election go back to at least Sarah Palin (OK, only Vice-President in her case, but you just know her supporters were hoping John McCain would drop dead in office .) And the Austrian election was only for President, a largely ceremonial position.

Yes, things are maybe a bit less predictable now, but not *that* much less so.

I'm not going to promise to eat my hat if Le Pen wins though… I like my hat .

iseverynamegone

I'm not going to say I really know what is going on in France , what little I gather is from work colleagues in Paris, but the ones I talk to  are pretty worried about the right atm and view Brexit and Trump as bad news viewed through the Prism of French politics alone. 

skankdelvar

iseverynamegone said:

<snip> just hope Germany remains centre left </snip>

Not to add to your woes or anything but Germany's currently governed by a coalition comprising two centre-right parties and one centre-left party. This is why we hear apparently conflicting messages from Germany.

For example: Mrs Merkel (right-wing CDU) is fairly emollient about Brexit whereas the vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel (left-wing SPD) is taking a tougher stance.

iseverynamegone

Tbh anywhere in the centre will do as far as Germany is concerned. :-)

RaymondLin

Mkjackary said:

RaymondLin said:

What I don't understand is how people are voting for him.

fair enough you can be right wing and find his political stance agreeable.

fair enough you can't stand the current establishment and you want to throw a stick into the cogs.

fair enough you like someone who seemingly shoot from the hips.

fair enough you like a bully who spends half his time coming up with nicknames for his opponents.

but are they so blind not to see through all the lies and bullshit and the general low IQ in both speech level and answers to questions in interviews? There have been various studies to show that on average 93% of the stuff he say are lies.  There have been studied to show his speech level is of a 9 year old.  There are many interviews where his answers just made no sense and he just simply make up words on the spot...."bigly"!

See I agree, but the alternative is a witch in sheep's clothing. Atleast with trump you instantly know he is a cunt. Some people think Hilary is all lovey and left and liberal, when tbh trump is probably the more liberal of the two.

Plus if trump does stupid shit, the republicans won't let it go through office, but if Hilary was doing stupid shit the democrats would let it through with the help of some republicans.

Like, he would get his wall, which isn't that bad tbh their borders need some updating, but Mexico won't pay for it. And all it will do is reduce illegal immigration and the flow of drugs.

Stuff like banning all Muslims "untill we know what is going on" wouldn't get through. 


Please don't start thinking I love trump, because I don't, I just *detest* Hilary. And trump is the lesser of the two evils.


Plus trump would make the world hate American a little bit more, so Chinese and Japanese who want western cars etc will buy a Bentley instead of a bummer say, maybe.

Trump won't get his wall.  Just watch this.  (Bush already built a "fence")

To put it simply, building a 30ft wall just means there is now a market for a 31ft ladder.  

thisisguitar

In response to the thread title

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--_whfIcdg--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/1813aqov5wc2jjpg.jpg

JezWynd

RaymondLin said:

....but are they so blind not to see through all the lies and bullshit and the general low IQ in both speech level and answers to questions in interviews? There have been various studies to show that on average 93% of the stuff he say are lies.  There have been studied to show his speech level is of a 9 year old.  There are many interviews where his answers just made no sense and he just simply make up words on the spot...."bigly"!

Being stupid never did George Bush any harm (plus a little help from some hanging chads).

RaymondLin

JezWynd said:

RaymondLin said:

....but are they so blind not to see through all the lies and bullshit and the general low IQ in both speech level and answers to questions in interviews? There have been various studies to show that on average 93% of the stuff he say are lies.  There have been studied to show his speech level is of a 9 year old.  There are many interviews where his answers just made no sense and he just simply make up words on the spot...."bigly"!

Being stupid never did George Bush any harm.

Except with Bush it seems he surrounded himself with smart people.

You think this far along the election, Trump would had had people briefed him on the most basic stuff, right thing to say, things you must not say.  Barely a week goes by without him alienating women, latinos, blacks, the Pope, praising Putin, Mussolini and Sadam Hussain !

And where the hell are those Tax Returns?!

digitalscream

RaymondLin said:

Moss said:

DesVegas said:

^4 years is a mighty long time though. Where were you in 2012?

Yup, easily long enough to start another war

I could see there being massive rioting and unrest within the country if he does get in

You need approval of congress to go into war.  That means support of the senate and the house, not something he can do by himself, fortunately.

I like your optimism, but I'm struggling to think of any situation in living memory where the USA collectively said "no" to a war.

It's good for business, it's good for keeping people in office, and it's good for the morale of the country (until your two terms are up, at which point it's usually pretty obvious that everything's gone to shit, but you can blame your successor for that).

Bucket

Mkjackary said:

 trump is the lesser of the two evils.

Ha. Ha. HA.

HAHAHAHAHA. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

hungrymark

Bucket said:

Mkjackary said:

 trump is the lesser of the two evils.

Ha. Ha. HA.

HAHAHAHAHA. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Trump is pretty liberal on a lot of issues, with an obvious exception being mmigration (on which, admittedly, he's pretty bloody illiberal). He wants to reduce the US's military presence abroad, for example, and legalise drugs. 

Chalky

Take a serious look at previous Presidents. Trump might well be one of the better ones.  A protectionist US with a reduced military overseas is not all bad.  What matters is how Russia and China will react to that policy if Trump sticks to it.

ICBM

digitalscream said:

I like your optimism, but I'm struggling to think of any situation in living memory where the USA collectively said "no" to a war.

Syria, 2015.

Obama cleverly raised the requirement of needing to vote it through congress as a means to back out of it when it was obvious from polling that the public didn't support it. Congress would quite likely have voted it down in any event.

Chalky said:

Take a serious look at previous Presidents. Trump might well be one of the better ones.  A protectionist US with a reduced military overseas is not all bad.  What matters is how Russia and China will react to that policy if Trump sticks to it.

Hitler was not *all* bad either.

Trump's idea of 'making America great again' doesn't square with a reduced military overseas - not in the right way, anyway. It may mean less permanent bases - something I would welcome - but it won't mean a less aggressive foreign policy. His apparent willingness to lash out if he thinks American interests are threatened would make him extremely dangerous.

ToneControl

ICBM said:

Garthy said:

The political rule book has been ripped up. 18 months ago Le Pen, Trump and Brexit wouldn't have even got a passing mention. A far right Austrian party lost a general election by such a small amount there is a re-election soon. Personally I wouldn't bet against either candidates wining their respective elections.

Not really. 18 months ago, Cameron had to promise an EU referendum to see off (as he saw it) UKIP and the vote was only very narrowly lost; 14 years ago Jean-Marie Le Pen got to the second round (which he thought was an achievement, but the humiliation of Chirac's landslide was worth it), and lunatic right-wing populist candidates in the US Presidential election go back to at least Sarah Palin (OK, only Vice-President in her case, but you just know her supporters were hoping John McCain would drop dead in office .) And the Austrian election was only for President, a largely ceremonial position.

Yes, things are maybe a bit less predictable now, but not *that* much less so.

I'm not going to promise to eat my hat if Le Pen wins though… I like my hat .

if the  current stream of killings in France and Germany continues, I'm very concerned that we are going to see some scary changes to voting  in  the EU. It's not like they haven't done it before.  

As an aside, it's one of the reasons I want out of the EU - I can  imagine  some very unpleasant scenarios if  the rate of 3 attacks a week is maintained.  We've seen how states respond to  this sort of thing: curfews,  internment,  forcing people into  walled ghettos

Hopefully we can  maintain our  happier mix of cultures here,  notwithstanding the isolating effect of the single-faith schools that I have already moaned about

57Deluxe

...quick look to see if anyone noticed?

Chalky

ICBM said:

digitalscream said:

I like your optimism, but I'm struggling to think of any situation in living memory where the USA collectively said "no" to a war.

Syria, 2015.

Obama cleverly raised the requirement of needing to vote it through congress as a means to back out of it when it was obvious from polling that the public didn't support it. Congress would quite likely have voted it down in any event.

Chalky said:

Take a serious look at previous Presidents. Trump might well be one of the better ones.  A protectionist US with a reduced military overseas is not all bad.  What matters is how Russia and China will react to that policy if Trump sticks to it.

Hitler was not *all* bad either.

Trump's idea of 'making America great again' doesn't square with a reduced military overseas - not in the right way, anyway. It may mean less permanent bases - something I would welcome - but it won't mean a less aggressive foreign policy. His apparent willingness to lash out if he thinks American interests are threatened would make him extremely dangerous.

#bloodyeditor

Godwin's Law invoked by @ICBM?

Trump's rhetoric is a lot lighter on war than the vast majority of his predecessors.

Snap

I think Trump will win. Last week, I was working abroad, and the hotel was streaming the Republican convention live dueing breakfast, so I saw bits of it, a few speeches etc, including Ted Cruz (COCK). Trump's messages will resonate with lots of people- put Americans first, remove big government telling you waht to do, reduce taxes, stop being so PC, etc etc. He is positioning himself as the remover of state managed control - that's the core of the American Dream - you build your own desitny etc.

And I don't think he is anywhere near as right wing as he is portrayed. Its all theatre. But, every single person who I saw speaking was making a big deal about muslim terrorist threat. Strange that none of them talked about how many people had been killed by American gun toting lunatics, vs terror attacks.

They are though, absolutely false and full of shite. So fake, and glib.