EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Fortheloveofguitar

Heartfeltdawn;1093382" said:

Fortheloveofguitar said:

Of course it's all could be and might be



They can't guarantee it as they're not in government. They can only point out what could be done with the money which is what they've done throughout



They've never claimed this will 100% happen if we vote to leave only the possibilities of what could be done with the money



When they start claiming that it's a given which they haven't then there's an argument here
















When a Tory-led Leave group uses the NHS in this way, throwing montages of old women in hospitals coupled with erotic snippets about how we could spend this on a new hospital each week and all the rest, I think it's completely dishonest when you put it up against the polices those same Tory Leavers voted in favour of. 

Obviously nobody can make promises. So let's go crazy. Let's have campaigns saying we could spend it on unicorn horns and fairy wings for everyone. It'd be a lot less distasteful than the above campaign broadcast. 

That wasn't your original argument though was it

Heartfeltdawn

Fortheloveofguitar said:That wasn't your original argument though was it

The original argument is there. It complains about the Leave group blaming the EU for VAT on fuel when it was a Conservative decision. It griped about this continual notion of massive extra spending on the NHS with close to no substance at all.

It's why this referendum is so disheartening, because both sides have so little meat to the arguments. Because I criticise Leave here doesn't mean Remain are wonderful and honest. 

If Leave win, I do not believe they would spend whopping sums on the NHS. It's used as an emotionally manipulative device in their campaign and nothing more. If you feel differently, then we'll just have to see what happens four years down the line. 

ICBM

Fretwired said:

Leave may be bending the truth, but they are nothing compared to the fear and shame faced lies of the Remain Group. War in Europe. Cameron should resign for making comments like that - disgraceful. 

Actually I think they're about equal. The scaremongering coming from the Leave camp about what the EU does and wants to do is at least equal to the doom and gloom predictions of the Remain camp about the economics of leaving, and the unjustifiably optimistic forecasts of the Leavers are at least as bad as as the nothing-will-change naivety of the Remainers.

Overall I'd say the Leave lot are worse, but only by a short head - they do seem to have a knack of reducing arguments to simplistic and emotive populist bullshit though, of which the £350m to spend on the NHS is one of the worst.

For what it's worth I agree about Cameron and the war in Europe nonsense. The UK being a part of NATO is a more important factor than being part of the EU.

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fortheloveofguitar said:That wasn't your original argument though was it

The original argument is there. It complains about the Leave group blaming the EU for VAT on fuel when it was a Conservative decision. It griped about this continual notion of massive extra spending on the NHS with close to no substance at all.

Now you're spinning untruths:

Mr Gove told the BBC it had been a "mistake" of the previous Major government to introduce the tax, adding: "The Conservative government at the time did so because of the economic damage that the exchange rate mechanism of the European Union had caused.

"I think it is now time to acknowledge that that was an error."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36414761

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

Leave may be bending the truth, but they are nothing compared to the fear and shame faced lies of the Remain Group. War in Europe. Cameron should resign for making comments like that - disgraceful. 

Actually I think they're about equal. The scaremongering coming from the Leave camp about what the EU does and wants to do is at least equal to the doom and gloom predictions of the Remain camp about the economics of leaving, and the unjustifiably optimistic forecasts of the Leavers are at least as bad as as the nothing-will-change naivety of the Remainers.

Overall I'd say the Leave lot are worse, but only by a short head - they do seem to have a knack of reducing arguments to simplistic and emotive populist bullshit though, of which the £350m to spend on the NHS is one of the worst.

For what it's worth I agree about Cameron and the war in Europe nonsense. The UK being a part of NATO is a more important factor than being part of the EU.

But part of the problem is nobody knows the exact figure. There's also a realistic possibility we'll have to pay something to trade with the club. Personally I think the Remain mob are far worse - it's all doom and gloom which they cannot back up with any certainty. No better than lies.

Here's a copy of a letter on the £350 million claim to the Leave camapign:

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Letter-from-Sir-Andrew-Dilnot-to-Mr-Cummings-10-May-2016-.pdf

karltone

What are forum members opinions on the Euro and its future effect on the EU economy

Fretwired

karltone said:

What are forum members opinions on the Euro and its future effect on the EU economy

The Euro will survive, the EU will expand further into Eastern Europe - Turkey will join. If we vote remain then we will move to the Euro within the next 20 years as the older anti-European section of the population dies and immigrants and young people, who have only ever known the UK to be part of the EU, embrace further integration and the Europeanisation of the UK.

TTony

It *is* interesting how close the numbers are on our poll, and also interesting how many people have voted against the number that have added a comment too.

Personally, I think the actual result will be similarly close.

The importance of the result then becomes that it was close, rather than which way the marginal majority goes.

With anything less than a *very* clear majority (60/40 min, probably 65/35) to stay, the dissatisfied half of the Tories will launch a putsch against Cameron/Osborne and the rest of the StayInners.  That'll either lead to a fracturing of the Tory party (and probably an alliance between the GetOutters half and UKIP), or removal of Cameron as PM.  Possibly both.

Removal of Cameron leads to BJ taking over, and another referendum with the GetOutters using the Govt resources to boost the Out vote.  With that extra support, referendum #2 will produce an "out" result.

If Cameron survives but the party fractures, it immediately loses its commons majority.  There's no LibDems left to form a coalition alliance, and I can't really see a ConLab pact happening.  Which means there'll be an early election, which will likely be indecisive, but *will* see the GetOutters coalescing around the exTory/UKIP alliance to the extent that they may well end up as the largest single party.  (Labour disappear as a good chunk of their tradititional voters will go to UKIP but that's not the main story here).  As the largest single party, first topic on their agenda will be referendum #2.

Lots of assumptions & presumptions in that analysis, but I can see it happening.

The upside is that Osborne never gets to be PM.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

Now you're spinning untruths:

Mr Gove told the BBC it had been a "mistake" of the previous Major government to introduce the tax, adding: "The Conservative government at the time did so because of the economic damage that the exchange rate mechanism of the European Union had caused.

"I think it is now time to acknowledge that that was an error."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36414761

Check your chronology. 

The VAT on fuel issue came out yesterday with a major Sun article based around Boris, Gove, and Gisela Stuart. Here it is. On that VAT issue, there is nothing said about how the Tories imposed it. This is what is written: 

"In 1993, VAT on household energy bills was imposed. This makes gas and electricity much more expensive. EU rules mean we cannot take VAT off those bills. The least wealthy are hit particularly hard. The poorest households spend three times more of their income on household energy bills than the richest households spend. As long as we are in the EU, we are not allowed to cut this tax. When we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax. It isn’t right that unelected bureaucrats in Brussels impose taxes on the poorest and elected British politicians can do nothing."

There is nothing written about how the Conservatives imposed it. The article doesn't mention Tory or Conservative at all. 

The Spectator had a reply article out by 8.43am which mentions Norman Lamont and the reasoning behind the decision.

The BBC article you linked to is 22 hours old, meaning a publishing date around 3pm. It features Gove's words about Major's government making a mistake. I have bene trying to find a timestamped video of Gove talking to the BBC and have been unable to find one. If it follows the similar time period to the publishing of that BBC article, then we're talking after lunchtime. 

Therefore it's right to say that when the Sun article was published, it did point the finger at EU for the imposition of VAT on fuel. It did not blame the Conservative government. It's as clear as fucking crystal. 

It is only later in the day that Gove mentioned the Tory government of the time imposing VAT, a nice opportunity to point the finger at a pro-EU former PM in Major.

TTony

karltone said:

What are forum members opinions on the Euro and its future effect on the EU economy

The inconsistencies / incompatibilities in the Euro currency were papered over by Germany, at great expense, the last time (roughly 2009-2013).

The underlying issues have not been resolved - divergent national economies, divergent attitudes to work & "entitlement" - and other pressures have grown - immigration, rise of less centrist political sentiment.

A further significant shock to the Global financial system (ie another crash), or the introduction of another strain on the Euro itself (attempts to integrate Turkey) will reveal those underlying issues again.  Another rescue, on the same scale, just wouldn't be possible given that we all spent-up last time and the same level of funds are not available this time around.

If - when - those wonderful "financial markets" get a sniff of weakness or possible disintegration of the currency, then it will rapidly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If a British exit triggers similar sentiment in other EU member countries - Euro-using other member countries - then the situation becomes even more complex and dangerous (for the Euro).

Heartfeltdawn

And Mr Fret, some more info. 

The timestamps for that Sun article are included in the source code. May 30th for the original article, modified in the early hours of May 31st. 

http://i.imgur.com/JMy9sQb.jpg

It's entirely right to say that the article went out pointing the finger at the EU and said absolutely fuck all about the Conservatives being the ones to impose it. Gove's later admission only comes after articles like that at the Spectator revealed the truth. 

ICBM

Fretwired said:

karltone said:

What are forum members opinions on the Euro and its future effect on the EU economy

The Euro will survive, the EU will expand further into Eastern Europe - Turkey will join. If we vote remain then we will move to the Euro within the next 20 years as the older anti-European section of the population dies and immigrants and young people, who have only ever known the UK to be part of the EU, embrace further integration and the Europeanisation of the UK.

I would say…

The Euro will survive but some of the weaker members may have to leave, or be part of some sort of second-tier arrangement. The UK will not join the Euro, certainly not in the next five to ten years and possibly a lot longer.

The EU will expand a little further eastwards, but not much - no further than the Balkans. Turkey will not join in the foreseeable future if ever, and Ukraine, Belarus and other ex-Soviet states will not join - Putin has demonstrated that he is willing to go to war to stop that if he has to, which gave the EU a very serious and fully-deserved fright.

I think the pace of 'ever closer union' will slow as it becomes increasingly difficult to sell to some of the nations, and it wouldn't surprise me if others have in/out referenda even if we vote to stay in.

I don't think voting to stay in will encourage the EU to think we'll accept further Europeanisation - not unless it was over at least 60% for Remain, which seems very unlikely. Anything less than 55% is a major warning shot against it.

I also hope that any result of at least 55% for Remain should put the question to bed for at least a generation - but I expect there will be cries of foul and calls for a re-run if it is Remain, and especially if it's by less than that.

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

Fretwired said:

Now you're spinning untruths:

Mr Gove told the BBC it had been a "mistake" of the previous Major government to introduce the tax, adding: "The Conservative government at the time did so because of the economic damage that the exchange rate mechanism of the European Union had caused.

"I think it is now time to acknowledge that that was an error."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36414761

Check your chronology. 

The VAT on fuel issue came out yesterday with a major Sun article based around Boris, Gove, and Gisela Stuart. Here it is. On that VAT issue, there is nothing said about how the Tories imposed it. This is what is written: 

"In 1993, VAT on household energy bills was imposed. This makes gas and electricity much more expensive. EU rules mean we cannot take VAT off those bills. The least wealthy are hit particularly hard. The poorest households spend three times more of their income on household energy bills than the richest households spend. As long as we are in the EU, we are not allowed to cut this tax. When we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax. It isn’t right that unelected bureaucrats in Brussels impose taxes on the poorest and elected British politicians can do nothing."

There is nothing written about how the Conservatives imposed it. The article doesn't mention Tory or Conservative at all. 

The Spectator had a reply article out by 8.43am which mentions Norman Lamont and the reasoning behind the decision.

The BBC article you linked to is 22 hours old, meaning a publishing date around 3pm. It features Gove's words about Major's government making a mistake. I have bene trying to find a timestamped video of Gove talking to the BBC and have been unable to find one. If it follows the similar time period to the publishing of that BBC article, then we're talking after lunchtime. 

Therefore it's right to say that when the Sun article was published, it did point the finger at EU for the imposition of VAT on fuel. It did not blame the Conservative government. It's as clear as fucking crystal. 

It is only later in the day that Gove mentioned the Tory government of the time imposing VAT, a nice opportunity to point the finger at a pro-EU former PM in Major.

Aha ... you're using the Sun .. now that is desperate .. the Sun can print what it likes and judging from the general press Leave issued a press release which the Sun cherry picked from. This actually came up in April and remember Gove saying the Tories made a mistake. Everyone of a certain age remembers it's the Tories - it helped Labour win the election. Major wanted 17.5% but was defeated in the Commons and had to stick with 8% - Brown then reduced it to 5%.

Edit: I can find no evidence that the Leave campaign blame the EU for domestic fuel duty.

Fretwired

My postal vote has arrived .....

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said: Aha ... you're using the Sun .. now that is desperate .. the Sun can print what it likes and judging from the general press Leave issued a press release which the Sun cherry picked from. This actually came up in April and remember Gove saying the Tories made a mistake. Everyone of a certain age remembers it's the Tories - it helped Labour win the election. Major wanted 17.5% but was defeated in the Commons and had to stick with 8% - Brown then reduced it to 5%.

"The Sun can print what it likes" - If I replied in that way to every Telegraph link you put up, you'd accuse me of being a complete imbecile/an absolute prick/whatever your choice. 

The Sun article was endorsed by all three members. Two of those individuals, Boris and Gove, have written articles in the Sun previously. Another Vote Leave backer, Priti Patel, has an article today. Stuart and Gove are co-convener's of the Leave Committee; Stuart is also the Chairman of the Board. Vote Leave provides a list of links: they have used the Sun many times already as a tool for opinion making.  

The idea that the Sun has somehow gone in there and been given free reign to compose this piece with no Vote Leave input is outstandingly ludicrous. 

1. Why is it desperate to provide a Sun article which was contributed to and supported by the Leave campaign?  

2. Where is this press release that the Sun cherry picked from? A link please.

3. If the fuel/VAT issue came up in April, why does a Google search for "Gove VAT fuel" for the month of April 2016 provide absolutely nothing?  Going further, from 1st April to 20th May, the only link that comes up on a search for "Gove fuel VAT leave" features an article in the Sun on Boris talking about petrol and VAT. If the VAT issue was around previously, why is it absolutely nowhere to be seen in the official Vote Leave brochure (the online version)? 

There, I'll leave that for now and go for a run instead. 

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

Edit: I can find no evidence that the Leave campaign blame the EU for domestic fuel duty.

Then why did Gove think it timely to acknowledge that error of the Major government? I think they got caught out by that Sun article in terms of people being able to bring up the Tory government of the day. 

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

Edit: I can find no evidence that the Leave campaign blame the EU for domestic fuel duty.

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_energy

"The EU forces us to increase taxes on energy which particularly hits poorer families."

http://i.imgur.com/LOEQVnH.jpg

I'm more than happy to be proven completely wrong here. Blow me away with a fact bomb, smear me over the landscape with truth grenades, anything. 

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

My postal vote has arrived .....

In with the nutjobs, out with the nutjobs. Either way, it's a good election for nutjobs. 

TTony

Fretwired said:

My postal vote has arrived .....

Sorry, I don't get it.

Where's the choice???

Heartfeltdawn

TTony said:

Sorry, I don't get it.

Where's the choice???

That comes next time when Mr Blair offers his Third Way on an EU referendum...