EU Referendum Vote - Poll

Emp_Fab

I really wanted to watch that film all the way through, but once I saw they were relying on the likes of that arse Farage and Kelvin McKenzie I could watch no further.  They'd have done much better than to employ known gobshites with chequered pasts.

If anything, that film made me doubt my intended OUT vote, but I'm still voting out.

menamestom

Question for both sides.  Does your own financial situation affect how you might vote?

I.e., can you still afford mortgage payments if the interest rates go up?  Can you take some financial risk and uncertainty?

Just a thought, but if you bought your first house in the last 10 years or so you may be less inclined to rock the boat due to not having much scope to ride out any economic wobbles, even if leaving would be best in the mid to long term.

Many of the leave voters I see around where I live are older, bought their houses years ago and are sat on good equity.  Baby boomers voting out with no mortgage and masses of savings from great pensions etc.  Then there's a younger demographic, who are completely frozen out of the housing market due to current house prices and need to affect a change, because any chance of changing the equilibrium could increase opportunity.

Modulus_Amps

There is nothing helpful from any politician, so you may as well forget all there scare tactics of both sides.

This is very simple, spend 10 minutes looking up the Aims of the EU and the Purpose of the EU and see if they align with what you want for this country.

here are the main aims:

The European Union has four main aims:

• To establish European citizenship. This means protection of fundamental human rights and freedoms.
• To ensure freedom, security and justice. This means co-operation in the field of justice and home affairs.
• To promote economic and social progress. This involves the single market, the euro, environmental protection and social and regional development.
• To assert Europe's role in the world.

The first one is the one that made me change my vote, Definition of citizenship is :Citizenship is the status of a person recognized under the custom or law as being a member of a country.

It is clear that the EU is moving towards a "USA" system where the countries will become states, rather than countries. I don't have an issue with this per se, but we don't have the cultural homogeneity that they have in the USA.

Drew_TNBD

I don't want European citzenship. I don't feel European. I mean ffs... I feel more Japanese than I do European!!

ToneControl

menamestom said:

Question for both sides.  Does your own financial situation affect how you might vote?

I.e., can you still afford mortgage payments if the interest rates go up?  Can you take some financial risk and uncertainty?

Just a thought, but if you bought your first house in the last 10 years or so you may be less inclined to rock the boat due to not having much scope to ride out any economic wobbles, even if leaving would be best in the mid to long term.

Many of the leave voters I see around where I live are older, bought their houses years ago and are sat on good equity.  Baby boomers voting out with no mortgage and masses of savings from great pensions etc.  Then there's a younger demographic, who are completely frozen out of the housing market due to current house prices and need to affect a change, because any chance of changing the equilibrium could increase opportunity.

no, my finances don't affect my view - however they do mean I will be fine either way

It's because becoming part of a superstate with 100s of millions of vastly different people is scary, and I want better than that for my kids. The Irish endured 70 years of poverty as part of becoming independent, and people here are worried about being a few per cent worse off, MAYBE worse off. Could be better off, no one knows.

why do people imagine that "remain" that low risk and "leave" is high risk financially?

the figures from Osborne have been speculative, and presented in a completely deceitful way that makes them look many times worse

Also, they are based on the bizarre premise that the EU, from which we buy more than sell to, will be able to shaft us on future trade deals. How would this be the case? I've looked at each claim in turn, and they all look bogus to me

I checked online, and the first link I found offers a good explanation of how that "£4300 worse off" figure is a really blatant lie:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/

Everyone: Keep remembering this reality check:

• we are the 5th largest economy in the world
  
• we are massively subsidising poorer EU countries
• If we stay in the EU, this will happen more and more, and we will lose our independence completely
• Other similar cultures in smaller countries are doing fine outside the EU (Canada, Aus, NZ), we are stupid if we are frightened to be outside the EU, it is draining money from us, not helping. 
• We can trade with the EU and allow Polish plumbers into the UK without being in the EU

MrBump

eSully said:

I'm one of the 8 undecided. If I'm honest I'm surprised only 10% of the 80 votes in our poll are undecided. I don't see this as black and white at all. I see a lot of merit in both sides of the argument and I don't see the personalities fronting either campaign as a reason not to vote for that side. I'd rather deal with what is actually being put forward so from that front I've tried to educate myself, I watched the Brexit video that someone posted on another thread (I even lasted past that embarrassing umbrella company analogy section   ) - I've watched pro-remain videos from the likes of Owen Jones and read as many articles as I could from both sides. I've been lurking in the other threads, observing the points made by posters like @fretwired and @icbm ... and I'm still stumped as to how to vote.

So here's where I stand right now (and I'm open to having my mind changed), I don't agree with ever closer union or the power of the European commision, I've never believed a one size fits all approach works for an area as diverse as the eurozone. Don't want to join the Euro. I can see the benefits to small businesses if a certain amount of de-regulation allows them to become more competitive. I do believe that the UK can very successfully go it alone in the global economy although I would expect a period of recession after a leave vote. I also think some of the scare mongering from the remain campaign is utter shit, as if we'll suddenly tear up the human rights act, boot out every non-british academic or worker from the Eu, and suddenly all trade with the Eu will stop dead, what utter tosh, surely even they don't believe some of the crap they're coming out with. 

So going on that I probably I sound like I'm voting leave but actually I'm veering slightly towards remain for a few reasons. For one, I agree with Yanis Varoufakis, we should look to reform and improve from within. I think there are encouraging signs across the Eurozone of the people taking control, I hope this continues, the protests against TTIP would be an example of this, I think if this movement flourishes and continues and we hold the EU and particularly the commision more accountable then the EU can work better for the people. My best friend runs an ecology company and he's very worried about what will happen if we leave the EU, he reckons he's already seeing the damage from an Environmental point of view the Tories are wrecking and that could get a lot worse without the EU to reign back excessive enviromental deregulation. Lastly, I have no confidence in the political leadership we have right now, and I don't just mean the Tories, Cameron and Gideon might be a pile of shite but the ones looking to replace them aren't much better and then we get onto the other parties, Corbyn, Fallon, Farage, that dope from the green party. I don't see strong leadership there at all and I think we'd need extremely strong leadership, particularly in the first few years, if leaving the EU was to be a success. I think we'd have to fight tooth and nail to keep reasonably favourable terms of trade with the EU and the French/Germans will be vindictive.

There's probably massive holes in my argument but I'm sure someone will point them out  

You just summarised perfectly how I feel.

Modulus_Amps

Drew_fx said:

I don't want European citzenship. I don't feel European. I mean ffs... I feel more Japanese than I do European!!

Just how many Japanese do you feel?

Drew_TNBD

Modulus_Amps said:

Drew_fx said:

I don't want European citzenship. I don't feel European. I mean ffs... I feel more Japanese than I do European!!

Just how many Japanese do you feel?

One mostly, but there are a few many others.

menamestom

ToneControl said:

 

why do people imagine that "remain" that low risk and "leave" is high risk financially?

Any change is risk, might end up being an opportunity, but in the short term there will be uncertainty which is not good for financial markets, interest rates, cost of living etc.  It is a gamble and unknown.  If you are at the peak of your expenses in life (Young children, relatively big mostly unpaid mortgage), it is a bigger risk than if you are financially set in life and want better return for your investments.

 My point is the gamble might pay off but if you are not in a position with sufficient funds to ride through the initial uncertainty, it may be a consideration in your thinking.

ToneControl said:

 

no, my finances don't affect my view - however they do mean I will be fine either way

I think you've answered my question

Drew_TNBD

Change is exactly what we need.

Phil_aka_Pip

ToneControl said:

Did anyone in the UK vote for this political union?

No. The last vote was for the European Economic Community (my italics). If they had come clean and told us it would inevitably lead to political integration we'd have voted NO. They didn't, they hid the truth, they lied about it being purely economic. The IN people are lying again this time too.

ToneControl

eSully said:

I'm one of the 8 undecided. If I'm honest I'm surprised only 10% of the 80 votes in our poll are undecided. I don't see this as black and white at all. I see a lot of merit in both sides of the argument and I don't see the personalities fronting either campaign as a reason not to vote for that side. I'd rather deal with what is actually being put forward so from that front I've tried to educate myself, I watched the Brexit video that someone posted on another thread (I even lasted past that embarrassing umbrella company analogy section   ) - I've watched pro-remain videos from the likes of Owen Jones and read as many articles as I could from both sides. I've been lurking in the other threads, observing the points made by posters like @fretwired and @icbm ... and I'm still stumped as to how to vote.

So here's where I stand right now (and I'm open to having my mind changed), I don't agree with ever closer union or the power of the European commision, I've never believed a one size fits all approach works for an area as diverse as the eurozone. Don't want to join the Euro. I can see the benefits to small businesses if a certain amount of de-regulation allows them to become more competitive. I do believe that the UK can very successfully go it alone in the global economy although I would expect a period of recession after a leave vote. I also think some of the scare mongering from the remain campaign is utter shit, as if we'll suddenly tear up the human rights act, boot out every non-british academic or worker from the Eu, and suddenly all trade with the Eu will stop dead, what utter tosh, surely even they don't believe some of the crap they're coming out with. 

So going on that I probably I sound like I'm voting leave but actually I'm veering slightly towards remain for a few reasons. For one, I agree with Yanis Varoufakis, we should look to reform and improve from within. I think there are encouraging signs across the Eurozone of the people taking control, I hope this continues, the protests against TTIP would be an example of this, I think if this movement flourishes and continues and we hold the EU and particularly the commision more accountable then the EU can work better for the people. My best friend runs an ecology company and he's very worried about what will happen if we leave the EU, he reckons he's already seeing the damage from an Environmental point of view the Tories are wrecking and that could get a lot worse without the EU to reign back excessive enviromental deregulation. Lastly, I have no confidence in the political leadership we have right now, and I don't just mean the Tories, Cameron and Gideon might be a pile of shite but the ones looking to replace them aren't much better and then we get onto the other parties, Corbyn, Fallon, Farage, that dope from the green party. I don't see strong leadership there at all and I think we'd need extremely strong leadership, particularly in the first few years, if leaving the EU was to be a success. I think we'd have to fight tooth and nail to keep reasonably favourable terms of trade with the EU and the French/Germans will be vindictive.

There's probably massive holes in my argument but I'm sure someone will point them out  

I agree with most of the first part of what you say

My problem with the second part is:

• I don't feel I have the right to saddle my kids with being part of something awful, just because it might help other people in other countries
• The idea that the EU shields us from UK politicians we dislike is a really bad idea: Because the EU is in such crisis, more and more extreme right-wing parties are winning huge sections of the votes across the EU. You might find that instead of a Centre-right Cameron government, we end up with a far-right EU one

karltone

MrBump said:

eSully said:

I'm one of the 8 undecided. If I'm honest I'm surprised only 10% of the 80 votes in our poll are undecided. I don't see this as black and white at all. I see a lot of merit in both sides of the argument and I don't see the personalities fronting either campaign as a reason not to vote for that side. I'd rather deal with what is actually being put forward so from that front I've tried to educate myself, I watched the Brexit video that someone posted on another thread (I even lasted past that embarrassing umbrella company analogy section   ) - I've watched pro-remain videos from the likes of Owen Jones and read as many articles as I could from both sides. I've been lurking in the other threads, observing the points made by posters like @fretwired and @icbm ... and I'm still stumped as to how to vote.

So here's where I stand right now (and I'm open to having my mind changed), I don't agree with ever closer union or the power of the European commision, I've never believed a one size fits all approach works for an area as diverse as the eurozone. Don't want to join the Euro. I can see the benefits to small businesses if a certain amount of de-regulation allows them to become more competitive. I do believe that the UK can very successfully go it alone in the global economy although I would expect a period of recession after a leave vote. I also think some of the scare mongering from the remain campaign is utter shit, as if we'll suddenly tear up the human rights act, boot out every non-british academic or worker from the Eu, and suddenly all trade with the Eu will stop dead, what utter tosh, surely even they don't believe some of the crap they're coming out with. 

So going on that I probably I sound like I'm voting leave but actually I'm veering slightly towards remain for a few reasons. For one, I agree with Yanis Varoufakis, we should look to reform and improve from within. I think there are encouraging signs across the Eurozone of the people taking control, I hope this continues, the protests against TTIP would be an example of this, I think if this movement flourishes and continues and we hold the EU and particularly the commision more accountable then the EU can work better for the people. My best friend runs an ecology company and he's very worried about what will happen if we leave the EU, he reckons he's already seeing the damage from an Environmental point of view the Tories are wrecking and that could get a lot worse without the EU to reign back excessive enviromental deregulation. Lastly, I have no confidence in the political leadership we have right now, and I don't just mean the Tories, Cameron and Gideon might be a pile of shite but the ones looking to replace them aren't much better and then we get onto the other parties, Corbyn, Fallon, Farage, that dope from the green party. I don't see strong leadership there at all and I think we'd need extremely strong leadership, particularly in the first few years, if leaving the EU was to be a success. I think we'd have to fight tooth and nail to keep reasonably favourable terms of trade with the EU and the French/Germans will be vindictive.

There's probably massive holes in my argument but I'm sure someone will point them out  

You just summarised perfectly how I feel.

I don't think there is a possibility to reform the EU. The EU has been on a road which was always the same road virtually since its inception, it may of had a few minor diversions, but its still on the same road. The choice is whether you want to go to the that destination or to change path and go in a different direction. 

Because of the Euro i also think the EU has no other choice and will not reform but carry on with their objective of ever close union, fiscally as well as politically.

ToneControl

Gassage said:

How anyone with half a brain can even consider leaving is beyond me. Truly.

In that case, you'll need to spend more time reading the analyses, rather than assuming there is a clear case for remain

The more I've researched, the more I've been convinced to vote "leave"

ToneControl

karltone said:

MrBump said:

eSully said:

h the Eu will stop dead, what utter tosh, surely even they don't believe some of the crap they're coming out with. 

So going on that I probably I sound like I'm voting leave but actually I'm veering slightly towards remain for a few reasons. For one, I agree with Yanis Varoufakis, we should look to reform and improve from within. I think there are encouraging signs across the Eurozone of the people taking control, I hope this continues, the protests against TTIP would be an example of this, I think if this movement flourishes and continues and we hold the EU and particularly the commision more accountable then the EU can work better for the people. 

You just summarised perfectly how I feel.

I don't think there is a possibility to reform the EU. The EU has been on a road which was always the same road virtually since its inception, it may of had a few minor diversions, but its still on the same road. The choice is whether you want to go to the that destination or to change path and go in a different direction. 

I haven't seen any analysis that is optimistic about reforming the EU

I have seen analyses that say it will collapse anyway, so I guess we could remain in it, to take part in that crisis and rebuilding.

What's in it for me and my kids, and the other residents of the UK?

ToneControl

There has been a shortage of reasonable argument on TV and radio about this

I've heard lots of grandstanding, lies and propaganda, but very little genuine-sounding personal analysis

This Radio 4 interview offers more interesting thoughts, play from 8:30:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07cm32v#play

The opinions of the German-born UK MP are probably the most striking

menamestom

Drew_fx said:

Change is exactly what we need.

In the broader sense yes, always.  In the specifics, if that change is interest rates go up 5% and you can't afford your mortgage you probably don't want that kind of change.  If you have money to invest that would be good change.

Perhaps you could argue in any step for positive change, somebody somewhere will feel some pain and it is part of the process.

He who dares wins, as they say.

 

ToneControl

I don't particularly like Farage, but he's not an idiot

This was quite a pertinent speech, does anyone have any comments on it?

ToneControl

menamestom said:

Drew_fx said:

Change is exactly what we need.

In the broader sense yes, always.  In the specifics, if that change is interest rates go up 5% and you can't afford your mortgage you probably don't want that kind of change.  If you have money to invest that would be good change.

Perhaps you could argue in any step for positive change, somebody somewhere will feel some pain and it is part of the process.

He who dares wins, as they say.

 

what if the price of remain is high interest rates when we bail out the Euro again?

I can't believe that people think there is no risk to the UK if we remain

ToneControl

this video is good fun: