24hrs later, It strikes me that ...

Chalky

siremoon;1125876" said:

mellowsun said:

There can be no second chance here. We've blown it, there are no deals to be had. The rest of the EU wants us out ASAP , we've wasted enough of their time.












Well they are going to be disappointed then.  The treaty binds all member states and gives rights to those states.  A member state cannot be compelled to invoke Article 50.  If it wasn't so serious I would be laughing at the hypocrosy of Juncker and his cronies wanting to break the rules they were so keen to say were unbreakable when Cameron was trying to get a better deal.  They made the ruddy rules, they can now play by them.

Juncker is panicking. Why else demand something over which he has zero power?

TTony

Richardj said:

What I cannot understand is how the UK has appeared to bow down to whatever the EU have said and France can openly pick and choose what it wants, whatever EU rulings and law say. 

That is a feature of the different cultures @richardj

The British - as a wonderful generalisation - will abide by rules, once made, whether they agree with them or not.

The French - ditto - are far more likely to agree with something and then do whatever they originally intended to do.

I say that with no insult intended to the French (nor the British).  I say that as a reasonably fluent French speaker who has spent and enjoyed time over there and worked for French companies.  I don't claim that one attitude is right, nor even more right, than the other.

I observe only that we have different attitudes based in our different cultures, borne out of our different histories.

Which is why a "one Europe" with one size-fits-all could never work.  Recognise national difference.  Respect national differences.  Enjoy national differences.  Don't try to trample all over them and homogenise something that can not be homogenised.

Richardj

Chalky said:

siremoon;1125876" said:

mellowsun said:

There can be no second chance here. We've blown it, there are no deals to be had. The rest of the EU wants us out ASAP , we've wasted enough of their time.












Well they are going to be disappointed then.  The treaty binds all member states and gives rights to those states.  A member state cannot be compelled to invoke Article 50.  If it wasn't so serious I would be laughing at the hypocrosy of Juncker and his cronies wanting to break the rules they were so keen to say were unbreakable when Cameron was trying to get a better deal.  They made the ruddy rules, they can now play by them.

Juncker is panicking. Why else demand something over which he has zero power?

Business is different here.  If they don't want to do business they won't, even if means losing out. 

What does the UK offer that the EU cannot provide for themselves internally?

Is it guaranteed that UK businesses will be able to compete with similar businesses still within the EU and the advantages they will obviously have? 

There are an awful lot of questions that no-one seems to have asked or have answers for. How much are willing to gamble on it?

Richardj

TTony said:

Richardj said:

What I cannot understand is how the UK has appeared to bow down to whatever the EU have said and France can openly pick and choose what it wants, whatever EU rulings and law say. 

That is a feature of the different cultures @richardj

The British - as a wonderful generalisation - will abide by rules, once made, whether they agree with them or not.

The French - ditto - are far more likely to agree with something and then do whatever they originally intended to do.

I say that with no insult intended to the French (nor the British).  I say that as a reasonably fluent French speaker who has spent and enjoyed time over there and worked for French companies.  I don't claim that one attitude is right, nor even more right, than the other.

I observe only that we have different attitudes based in our different cultures, borne out of our different histories.

Which is why a "one Europe" with one size-fits-all could never work.  Recognise national difference.  Respect national differences.  Enjoy national differences.  Don't try to trample all over them and homogenise something that can not be homogenised.

@TTony, I absolutely agree. The point I failed to make well enough was perhaps a cultural weakness in the UK to really stand up against the EU for the things that were detrimental to it.

My French example is based on having lived here for some time now and seeing how the things that are beneficial are embraced and not beneficial ignored, even if they are 'law'.

Naively I think that a common 'culture' needs to be agreed before everything else or, as you rightly say, it will always be on a knife edge and pretty much doomed.

I'm still 'remain', but from an idealistic standpoint where I think it should be better for everyone if we can sort our sh*t out.  I would rather work towards that than turn my back on it.

TTony

Richardj said:

@TTony, I absolutely agree. The point I failed to make well enough was perhaps a cultural weakness in the UK to really stand up against the EU for the things that were detrimental to it.

Yup.

Although I wasn't present at *all* the UK/EU negotiation sessions, I can imagine that there was some cultural insensitivity on the part of our negotiating team.  

And we definitely also need to learn how to shrug our shoulders.  Unfortunately, Etonians are taught how to box instead.

Chalky

Richardj;1125934" said:

Chalky said:

siremoon;1125876" said:mellowsun said:



There can be no second chance here. We've blown it, there are no deals to be had. The rest of the EU wants us out ASAP , we've wasted enough of their time.

























Well they are going to be disappointed then.  The treaty binds all member states and gives rights to those states.  A member state cannot be compelled to invoke Article 50.  If it wasn't so serious I would be laughing at the hypocrosy of Juncker and his cronies wanting to break the rules they were so keen to say were unbreakable when Cameron was trying to get a better deal.  They made the ruddy rules, they can now play by them.

Juncker is panicking. Why else demand something over which he has zero power?





Business is different here.  If they don't want to do business they won't, even if means losing out.  What does the UK offer that the EU cannot provide for themselves internally? Is it guaranteed that UK businesses will be able to compete with similar businesses still within the EU and the advantages they will obviously have? There are an awful lot of questions that no-one seems to have asked or have answers for. How much are willing to gamble on it?

What does the UK offer that the EU cannot provide for themselves internally? Er, a market for French and German goods. A big market, too. Lots of willing buyers in a country happy to have a trade deficit. Can you tell me where in the rest of the EU can provide a billion or two Euros per day?

johnnyurq

Chalky said:

bodhi;1125170" said:

Chalky said:

Truly staggered at the Remainers' attacks on basic democracy.





Maybe more an "attack" on what seems, in hindsight, a deeply flawed democratic exercise.  It should not have happened this way, and no-one saw it coming.  That doesn't mean it has to be accepted.  A second referendum based on actual facts and a healthy dose of reality will still be democratic.

You assert "no-one saw it coming", but those who voted Leave did.

The real problem is that "NONE OF THOSE WHO SHOULD HAVE" saw it coming. The politicians and other institutions (the Churches are an example) had dropped to having so little contact with the voting public that they didn't know what the public's views were and what they thought.

Not sure that is true even as the first results were coming in the main figures were feeling it had gone the way of remain and the attacks on the assertion that the Scots/London pact (lol) were gonna piss on leave's chips and indeed getting very angry about it, even some on here were displaying this "we have lost" before a single vote was counted, so sorry as per your assetions are not correct.

Richardj

Is that people in the UK buying continental products? Purely in terms of food and drink it isn't the same here. I'm not sure that people in the UK realise how lucky they are to have the level of choice as UK products are not so freely available here.  The trade is very much one way and there simply isn't the interest so I'm not sure how that supports UK businesses.

There isn't really a 'British' motor industry. Are there actually any British motor manufacturers anymore?  There aren't so many large engineering companies, globally prominent manufacturers really.  Most commerce seems to be services and financial services, I've already heard that some of those will move overseas if it isn't viable in the UK.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm fiercely British, but I worry about the implications of snap judgements that might have been made without an understanding of the greater picture.

Chalky

Richardj;1125997" said:

Is that people in the UK buying continental products? Purely in terms of food and drink it isn't the same here. I'm not sure that people in the UK realise how lucky they are to have the level of choice as UK products are not so freely available here.  The trade is very much one way and there simply isn't the interest so I'm not sure how that supports UK businesses.

There isn't really a 'British' motor industry. Are there actually any British motor manufacturers anymore?  There aren't so many large engineering companies, globally prominent manufacturers really.  Most commerce seems to be services and financial services, I've already heard that some of those will move overseas if it isn't viable in the UK.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm fiercely British, but I worry about the implications of snap judgements that might have been made without an understanding of the greater picture.

It isn't the same. We take twice as many imports from Germany as they take from us. Hence why Merkel doesn't want to be nasty.

dindude

Richardj said:

There isn't really a 'British' motor industry. Are there actually any British motor manufacturers anymore?  There aren't so many large engineering companies, globally prominent manufacturers really.  Most commerce seems to be services and financial services, I've already heard that some of those will move overseas if it isn't viable in the UK.

Very wrong. Ok, not many British owned car companies anymore but manufacturing wise it's in rude health. Nissan has turned out several million Qashqai's which were designed in London, tested in Birmingham and built in Sunderland.

Mini are built in the UK, Jaguar is having a resurgence, Honda manufacture in Swindon, and Vauxhall are still turning them out in the Ellesmere Port.

Then you have Lotus, Bently, Rolls Royce, Aston Martin etc etc.

TTony

Richardj said:

There isn't really a 'British' motor industry. Are there actually any British motor manufacturers anymore?  

Define "British"?

In terms of factories owned by companies domiciled in the UK, then no, we don't have many (although there are some).

In terms of factories & expertise, then there are a few ...

Like Nissan in Sunderland.

Or Toyota in Derby.

Mini make a few cars in Oxford.

JLR are quite popular - Liverpool, and Coventry (IIRC).

There's a posh factory just outside Crewe too.

And RR of course.

Lotus just outside Norwich.

Then throw in that *most* F1 teams have engineering bases along the M40 somewhere ...

That might count as "a few"

DaevidJ

As far as I understand it Toyota make certain models in this country and certain ones in France... Both with variations on drive...

Richardj

dindude said:

Richardj said:

There isn't really a 'British' motor industry. Are there actually any British motor manufacturers anymore?  There aren't so many large engineering companies, globally prominent manufacturers really.  Most commerce seems to be services and financial services, I've already heard that some of those will move overseas if it isn't viable in the UK.

Very wrong. Ok, not many British owned car companies anymore but manufacturing wise it's in rude health. Nissan has turned out several million Qashqai's which were designed in London, tested in Birmingham and built in Sunderland.

Mini are built in the UK, Jaguar is having a resurgence, Honda manufacture in Swindon, and Vauxhall are still turning them out in the Ellesmere Port.

Then you have Lotus, Bently, Rolls Royce, Aston Martin etc etc.

OK, but how much of the profits end up in the UK?

Made in the UK, yes, with subsidies from the UK government to generate employment. UK companies, no.

Isn't Jaguar/Landrover and possibly Aston Martin owned by TATA in India, who are currently crapping all over what is left of the UK steel industry?  Lotus is I think Malaysian owned, Bentley owned by VAG, Rolls Royce is owned by BMW.  Ford is a US company, what is left of Vauxhall is still owned by General Motors in the US. Both Ford and Vauxhall have vastly more production on the continent than the UK.

What's left? 

TTony

Richardj said:

OK, but how much of the profits end up in the UK?

The profit is a small % of the overall benefit.

You're right, those companies are largely owned by companies that are domiciled overseas.  But they'll have shareholders (who ultimately benefit) who are spread globally, either directly or via pension fund holdings.

But putting aside the ultimate beneficiaries of those profits, the profits are 5% in a good year.

The other 95% of turnover is accounted for by production/marketing/R&D/etc costs, and a large part of those costs are incurred locally, so the benefit is received locally.

[edit]

And the extent of subsidies available from the UK government is controlled by *EU* legislation ... 

Drew_TNBD

mellowsun said:

There can be no second chance here. We've blown it, there are no deals to be had. The rest of the EU wants us out ASAP , we've wasted enough of their time.

Fortunately for us, only WE can decide when to declare article 50.

octatonic

Drew_fx said:

mellowsun said:

There can be no second chance here. We've blown it, there are no deals to be had. The rest of the EU wants us out ASAP , we've wasted enough of their time.

Fortunately for us, only WE can decide when to declare article 50.

I read something earlier that indicated that we don't know if that is the case.

Article 50 states that 'A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.'

'Notify' is, apparently, up to interpretation.

It could be argued that holding a referendum and the result being that the majority of people voting to leave constitutes notification.

It was assumed that there would have to be a letter drafted, but that is just an assumption.

If it is the case then the 2 year negotiation clock began on Friday.

We should know if this is the case sometime next week when Cameron meets with the member state leaders.

I'll see if I can dig out the news story tomorrow.

Richardj

Drew_fx said:

mellowsun said:

There can be no second chance here. We've blown it, there are no deals to be had. The rest of the EU wants us out ASAP , we've wasted enough of their time.

Fortunately for us, only WE can decide when to declare article 50.

But what is the point of delaying it when it has clearly been stated that the UK doesn't want to be part of the EU?  IN or OUT, not 'ah, well, lets just wait a bit'.  Will of the people and all that.

Garthy

We may find out on Tuesday after the '27' have their meting about our exit. I seem to remember talk of Greece facing expulsion if it didn't meet its financial obligations in 2014. If Greece could be expelled then I can't see what would prevent us from being so too. Conversely a Belgian & an  Austrian politician was on CNBC earlier saying that only we could dictate when we leave so who knows?

Richardj

The UK isn't being expelled, it has chosen to leave.  Why then doesn't it want to leave asap?

Drew_TNBD

Richardj said:

The UK isn't being expelled, it has chosen to leave.  Why then doesn't it want to leave asap?

It's our right to decide when. It's a long complicated process, and no-one ever said it would happen overnight. Stop rabble rousing.