So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

mellowsun

The warnings were not bollocks. This has not been thought through. 

Right now universities are losing research funding. People are having contracts terminated. You'll hear about this in the news over the coming days and weeks.

There's stuff that was never even discussed by either side. What's going to happen to Northern Ireland? If we want borders, what does that mean for the current open border between ROI and NI? Right now you can just walk across from the EU to the UK. If we leave the EU, it could be a disaster for peace there - here's one view here: 

https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362070576898048

paulmapp8306

So its all down to the F'in bankers again..............

prh777

45% of all UK exports go to the EU (roughly 227 billion)

Also we import intermediate goods from the EU that are then exported to the rest of the world .  By opting out of the single market these intermediate goods would go up in price (most likely) due to tariffs.  Thus making UK goods more expensive and less attractive to the rest of the world (non eu).

It would be a clusterf_ck of epic proportions if uk exports to the eu were to stop as proposed by some people.  How hard is this to understand?

To quote Sheldon 'I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.'

Heartfeltdawn

paulmapp8306 said:

Im also absolutely pissed off with those young people saying we have Fucked up their future.  Sorry guys, if more than 38% of you 18-25 year olds and been bothered to give a fuck in the first place, you may have had a better outcome.

Can you blame them for being pissed off? 

A young person in that age category has had huge uni fees applied by their elders. Their generation is being fucked over in the employment market courtesy of their elders. They see the sort of EU travel and work arrangements their elders had evaporate away in front of their eyes. I would agree that they are targeting their ire at the wrong group to a degree but that the anger shouldn't be dismissed outright. 

Like the working class Labour vote who went Leave, it's built-up anger that has aggregated over time. The working class Leavers feel forgotten by the politicians: lots of young people feel likewise. 

There is an element of divide and conquer going on. Let the voters argue among themselves and give the politicians some room.  

Chalky

prh777;1131089" said:

45% of all UK exports go to the EU (roughly 227 billion)

Also we import intermediate goods from the EU that are then exported to the rest of the world .  By opting out of the single market these intermediate goods would go up in price (most likely) due to tariffs.  Thus making UK goods more expensive and less attractive to the rest of the world (non eu).



It would be a clusterf_ck of epic proportions if uk exports to the eu were to stop as proposed by some people.  How hard is this to understand?

To quote Sheldon 'I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.'

But you could try understanding what you've just written. The devaluation of Sterling is higher than any punitive EU tariff so the latter becomes irrelevant. UK goods are neither more expensive nor unattractive - they are now far cheaper and will still be so after EU tariffs. We import a lot more so an equivalent punitive tariff on top of the devaluation will have a bigger impact on EU exports to us than on our exports to the EU. Furthermore, the increase in the cost of imports deters people from buying them, improving the balance of payments. Our service industry doesn't suck in much in the way of imports so it doesn't take a hit like our diminutive manufacturing base. So a much reduced trade deficit is on the way.

octatonic

prh777 said:

To quote Sheldon 'I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.'

Genius.

kjdowd

The thing that most winds me up is people saying that vey little will actually change. So then, pray tell, why subject the country to years of economic uncertainty, lose the veto and give the racists a voice? Seems a lot to pay for very little change...

paulmapp8306

Heartfeltdawn said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Im also absolutely pissed off with those young people saying we have Fucked up their future.  Sorry guys, if more than 38% of you 18-25 year olds and been bothered to give a fuck in the first place, you may have had a better outcome.

Can you blame them for being pissed off? 

errr yes.  If they had all voted and lost then no.  Should have got off their arses away from their PS4s and X Box's and voted.

prh777

Chalky said:

prh777;1131089" said:

45% of all UK exports go to the EU (roughly 227 billion)

Also we import intermediate goods from the EU that are then exported to the rest of the world .  By opting out of the single market these intermediate goods would go up in price (most likely) due to tariffs.  Thus making UK goods more expensive and less attractive to the rest of the world (non eu).



It would be a clusterf_ck of epic proportions if uk exports to the eu were to stop as proposed by some people.  How hard is this to understand?

To quote Sheldon 'I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.'

But you could try understanding what you've just written. The devaluation of Sterling is higher than any punitive EU tariff so the latter becomes irrelevant. UK goods are neither more expensive nor unattractive - they are now far cheaper and will still be so after EU tariffs. We import a lot more so an equivalent punitive tariff on top of the devaluation will have a bigger impact on EU exports to us than on our exports to the EU. Furthermore, the increase in the cost of imports deters people from buying them, improving the balance of payments. Our service industry doesn't suck in much in the way of imports so it doesn't take a hit like our diminutive manufacturing base. So a much reduced trade deficit is on the way.

Fair point, I should have added 'all things being equal' to my first statement.   

My somewhat narky Sheldon quote was in relation to the notion we would stop all trade with the EU which some people are holding out as a possibility.  This is, and remains, a crushingly daft thing to say.

However I would disagree that the tariffs are irrelevant due to the movement in sterling as there are further impacts.

The devaluation of sterling is not fixed and it may strengthen in a short period of time but tariffs typically take many years to adjust.  

Many of the goods we import cannot be substituted with domestic products therefore the cost of the consumer's shopping basket (all goods not just food) will typically rise more quickly than any pick up in income due to greater exports.

Many of the intermediate goods we import cannot be substituted with domestic products therefore the cost of the business' supply chain will typically rise more quickly than any pick up in income due to greater exports requiring a greater working capital base to maintain output at the same level.

There are a number of economic analysis of tariffs and the net welfare loss to economies.  Disclaimer here : I do not know the relative levels of tariffs the uk will be subject to under standard WTO rules.

I agree a reduced trade deficit is on the way (a positive) but it is my opinion that it will not make up for the impact on confidence and inward investment caused by brexit.

mellowsun

I just wanted to reiterate the point that I made on another thread. As members of the EU, any of us could move to the another EU country and set up a business and start trading, because we have the same rights as all EU citizens. That's what free trade and free movement mean in this context.

This option has now gone or has been made much more difficult.

And it's the same for companies. That's why many are reconsidering the UK as a base. Because they won't get the same freedom once we are out of the UK.

Troy

I've seen first hand what the EU done to our fishing industry, practically destroyed it!

RaymondLin

mellowsun;1131175" said:

I just wanted to reiterate the point that I made on another thread. As members of the EU, any of us could move to the another EU country and set up a business and start trading, because we have the same rights as all EU citizens. That's what free trade and free movement mean in this context.

This option has now gone or has been made much more difficult.



And it's the same for companies. That's why many are reconsidering the UK as a base. Because they won't get the same freedom once we are out of the UK.

The new place I'm starting at end of July have their base in Dublin, but trade all over Europe, no doubt some restructuring for the UK division will be needed because of this.

Handsome_Chris

kjdowd said:

The thing that most winds me up is people saying that vey little will actually change. So then, pray tell, why subject the country to years of economic uncertainty, lose the veto and give the racists a voice? Seems a lot to pay for very little change...

@KJDowd, didn't the racists always have a voice, just like anyone else who is eligible to vote?

siremoon

kjdowd said:

The thing that most winds me up is people saying that vey little will actually change. So then, pray tell, why subject the country to years of economic uncertainty, lose the veto and give the racists a voice? Seems a lot to pay for very little change...

The veto is worth far less than it's actually cracked up to be.  The EU has moved and is moving more towards qualified majority voting.  That makes it harder and harder for an individual member to block anything.  That is one of the main reasons I voted to get out. 

Sporky

Chalky said:

The devaluation of Sterling is higher than any punitive EU tariff so the latter becomes irrelevant. 

Except that it's money people spend on our stuff that we don't get.

our diminutive manufacturing base

Dimished, yes, but still 11% of GDP, and (coinky-dentally) we're the 11th biggest manufacturer in the world. Manufacturing is a significant part of the UK economy.

siremoon

I also see that the odd crack is starting to appear in the EU position.  Both the Polish and Czech governments have called on Juncker to resign.

Clarky

paulmapp8306 said:

RaymondLin said:

How are you do certain that there are long term benefits? Show me an example of the world where they have a similar size population with a better economy that doesn't trade with their nearest neighbour.

A weak pound means bugger all if we don't trade!

You are living in a bubble if you think we can go it along.

This is the bollocks Ive heard before.  Europe is not the be all and end all. 

you're quite right in that respect… it's not the be all and end all

however.. you could say that taking a 30% [for example] cut in pay isn't the be all and end all either..

sure you can still pay the bills and maybe have enough over for a beer and a little GAS once in a while

but you'd certainly notice the missing dosh..

pulling out of the EU will do exactly this to the UK.. it'll be a pay cut for our country

not the sort that will totally floor us, but certainly the sort that will be felt..

I am not a fan of many of the people that run the EU or for the way it wants to head towards a Federation

so my heart says to leave..

but my brain says to keep the money coming in and keep working on the EU from the inside [and never give in] to try to make it a better place.. which is why I voted to remain..

my personal opinion:

I doubt the UK's choice to leave the EU will be catastrophic, but it seems to be a pretty stupid thing to do

Heartfeltdawn

paulmapp8306 said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

Can you blame them for being pissed off? 

errr yes.  If they had all voted and lost then no.  Should have got off their arses away from their PS4s and X Box's and voted.

Mmmm. Stereotyping. Cosy and comforting. 

fretmeister

Purely in response to an idiot on Facebook claiming that Churchill would have voted Leave...

kjdowd

Handsome_Chris;1131197" said:

kjdowd said:

The thing that most winds me up is people saying that vey little will actually change. So then, pray tell, why subject the country to years of economic uncertainty, lose the veto and give the racists a voice? Seems a lot to pay for very little change...





@KJDowd, didn't the racists always have a voice, just like anyone else who is eligible to vote?

Yes, but it had become a rather ashamed whisper. I fear now that a vocal minority feel they have a mandate to shout about these opinions and make the UK an uncomfortable place to live for some people.