EU Referendum Vote - Poll

quarky

I would a step further and say I am voting leave *despite* the personalities. Actually, despite the personalities on both sides. A bunch of leftist dreamers from cloud cookoo land are fairly repulsive too.

Sporky

I was initially a "won't you all shut up", but then had a look at what the leave campaign were actually going to do. The official leave campaign leaflet specifically mentioned dropping the European Convention on Human Rights, and there's been a lot about getting rid of employee rights. It's not that I like either campaign or either set of campaigners, but seeing what they'd do without the EU keeping them in check I reckon it'd be a lot worse.

ToneControl

Going back to the Eurozone debt crisis, which has not been solved yet

Last year, we discussed the pension promises made by the Greek Govt in order to get elected over the last 10-15 years. Basically it's the same as my kids voting the final say on how much their Christmas present budget should be

I found: Many Greeks are retiring early, on pensions of 94% final salary

e.g. 

"Christos Bourdakis, a retired government accountant. Sitting in a dusty union hall in Athens, he is in no mood to offer any concession on his pension, regardless of the severity of the crisis.

He is a full-throated proponent of a system that pays him a yearly gross pension of 30,000 euros, or $41,000, more than he was making when he retired 13 years ago at the age of 60. He has even written a book in defense of it, “The Guide to Granting Civil Service Pensions in Greece.”

“We have to protect our standard of living,” Mr. Bourdakis said. “The pensioners should not have to pay for the crisis created by the bankers.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/12/business/global/12pension.html?_r=0

the pension promises made to Greeks mean their future liability is 875% of GDP. Hairdressers and some musicians can retire at 50 on almost full income

Do you know how many of us in the UK will get a $41k pension?

To retire at 65 would need a fund of $500k- at 55, it would be $930k

The average pension pot here in the UK is £72k  ($112k):    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/experts/article-2820476/How-big-pension-pot-people-buy-annuity-income-buy-them.html

This would get you a yearly pension of  $4.9k a year retiring at 55

That's a UK pension of £3.3k compared to a Greek civil servant pension of £27.9k - where cost of living is lower

the current pension promises in Greece will bankrupt the country, even if all current debt is written off. 

Who is going to pay for these promises?

Who believes that people in the Uk should be tax to subsidise these incredibly generous pensions?

Here are the proposed solutions to the debt crisis:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_debt_crisis#Proposed_long-term_solutions

some of these sound very scary

Notice in particular a point I have made many times, but which remainers say will not happen:

"The crisis is pressuring the Euro to move beyond a regulatory state and towards a more federal EU with fiscal powers"

Also:

Debt write-off financed by wealth tax

Debt write-off based on international agreement

now where does anyone think that cash will come from? The Germans already bailed out the Banks with "EU money" so the EU now holds the debt. Does that not mean that  joining the EU is joining a fiscal union that is massively, massively overdrawn?

chillidoggy

quarky said:

I would a step further and say I am voting leave *despite* the personalities. Actually, despite the personalities on both sides. A bunch of leftist dreamers from cloud cookoo land are fairly repulsive too.

A very perceptive view!

I don't watch TV debates, as I feel they achieve nothing and I can't stand an audience full of braying donkeys. It's worse than Strictly Come Dancing.

A glance at today's headlines proved I didn't miss much.

Heartfeltdawn

Brexit and BBC bashing in one cover? Peak Daily Mail bingo has been reached. 

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/87A5/production/_90052743_mail.jpg

holnrew

Sporky said:

I was initially a "won't you all shut up", but then had a look at what the leave campaign were actually going to do. The official leave campaign leaflet specifically mentioned dropping the European Convention on Human Rights, and there's been a lot about getting rid of employee rights. It's not that I like either campaign or either set of campaigners, but seeing what they'd do without the EU keeping them in check I reckon it'd be a lot worse.

Exactly this. I can't even begin to consider leaving because it's not simply voting to leave the EU, it's a turning point in the politics of the country and what the far right want to do after.

Also it's sad that as one of the main nations that inspired the values of the convention, some people want to drop it so they can make more money at everybody else's expense.

Drew_TNBD

Sporky said:

I was initially a "won't you all shut up", but then had a look at what the leave campaign were actually going to do. The official leave campaign leaflet specifically mentioned dropping the European Convention on Human Rights, and there's been a lot about getting rid of employee rights. It's not that I like either campaign or either set of campaigners, but seeing what they'd do without the EU keeping them in check I reckon it'd be a lot worse.

Well the argument is that:

A - We already have a bunch of gaurantees in UK law for human rights
B - The EU definition of human rights has been stretched so thin that we now have to cater to the human rights of terrorists, meaning we can't deport them
C - Definitions of things like freedom of speech are totally inadequate with the ECHR, and without the act we can improve them

It's actually not as bonkers as you'd think. The problem is that everyone keeps throwing around terms like "a downgrading of human rights" without any sort of understanding about what is truly being proposed - the proposal is a replacement of the EU's Human Rights Act with a UK's Human Rights Act or "British Bill of Rights"

Which sounds like a good idea to me. We can basically clone parts of the American Constitution and actually have freedom of religion, freedom of speech, and freedom of expression enshrined in our UK law.

ToneControl

holnrew said:

Sporky said:

I was initially a "won't you all shut up", but then had a look at what the leave campaign were actually going to do. The official leave campaign leaflet specifically mentioned dropping the European Convention on Human Rights, and there's been a lot about getting rid of employee rights. It's not that I like either campaign or either set of campaigners, but seeing what they'd do without the EU keeping them in check I reckon it'd be a lot worse.

Exactly this. I can't even begin to consider leaving because it's not simply voting to leave the EU, it's a turning point in the politics of the country and what the far right want to do after.

Also it's sad that as one of the main nations that inspired the values of the convention, some people want to drop it so they can make more money at everybody else's expense.

The leave campaigns aren't a political party, the vote is not to put them into power

The MPs you elect would decide on laws in the future

Can I point out that the EU parliament is dominated by right wingers, and they have many more MEPs from far-right parties than you might expect. The EU is not a cosy socialist antidote to David Cameron

After much analysis, I can be 99% sure that the bulk of people wanting to make more money at other people's expense are the owners and leaders of large businesses which prosper very well in the EU, and find it increasingly easy to offshore jobs to new EU-assisted factories in Poland, Slovakia, etc

ToneControl

Drew_fx said:

Sporky said:

I was initially a "won't you all shut up", but then had a look at what the leave campaign were actually going to do. The official leave campaign leaflet specifically mentioned dropping the European Convention on Human Rights, and there's been a lot about getting rid of employee rights. It's not that I like either campaign or either set of campaigners, but seeing what they'd do without the EU keeping them in check I reckon it'd be a lot worse.

Well the argument is that:

A - We already have a bunch of gaurantees in UK law for human rights
B - The EU definition of human rights has been stretched so thin that we now have to cater to the human rights of terrorists, meaning we can't deport them
C - Definitions of things like freedom of speech are totally inadequate with the ECHR, and without the act we can improve them

It's actually not as bonkers as you'd think. The problem is that everyone keeps throwing around terms like "a downgrading of human rights" without any sort of understanding about what is truly being proposed - the proposal is a replacement of the EU's Human Rights Act with a UK's Human Rights Act or "British Bill of Rights"

Which sounds like a good idea to me. We can basically clone parts of the American Constitution and actually have freedom of religion, freedom of speech, and freedom of expression enshrined in our UK law.

Some people have talked themselves into a belief that UK voters and UK MPs aren't capable of making those sorts of decisions, and they are best referred to expert unelected officials in Brussels

Emp_Fab

@Mkjackary

...a "pussy arse" reason ??  )  That's a new one on me.

Well, you talk about reading this and that and making my own decision etc..  Don't you think I would prefer that ?  Do you think I'm contemplating voting based on celebrity endorsement because I haven't bothered to research myself ?  At the risk of repeating myself, it's precisely because my research has left me to decide between two piles of absolute bullshit propaganda that, instead of helping make a decision, has left me unequivocal that both sides are blurting out anything they think might work, with almost no reference to the truth.  I'm surrounded by people shouting all kinds of bollocks about a subject very very few of us have any real understanding of.  Trying to find genuinely impartial advice on the subject is like trying to find a unicorn that shits rocking-horse poo.

Everyone has an agenda.

And that's the problem with this referendum...  Unlike general elections where people are being asked to vote for situations they already have experience of - a labour govt, a conservative one etc, and can base their decisions on that as well as the campaigns being reined-in by it too, this is effectively a vote between one partially-known option (remain) and a complete unknown (leave).  Nobody really knows what would happen if we leave, and the campaigns play on that with their wild swinging statements.

Almost everything I've read about it has ultimately revealed itself to have an agenda of its own.  I genuinely haven't got any trustworthy data that I can base a decision on, and I think a hell of a lot of people are in the same boat.

Sporky

Drew_fx said:

Well the argument is that:

A - We already have a bunch of gaurantees in UK law for human rights
B - The EU definition of human rights has been stretched so thin that we now have to cater to the human rights of terrorists, meaning we can't deport them
C - Definitions of things like freedom of speech are totally inadequate with the ECHR, and without the act we can improve them

It's actually not as bonkers as you'd think.

And put like that it doesn't sound enormously bonkers - in the leaflet we got it sounded very hang-em-all-and-let-god-decide.

I don't think that either leaving or remaining is a suicidal decision; I think a good part of my reaction is that it just seems that a lot of people are shouting at each other, and (believe it or not) I am conflict-averse, and I'm also pretty confident that whatever the outcome, the actual effect on my day-to-day life won't be massive once any initial turmoil is over and done with.

It's also very hard to get over my dislike of the politicians heading up each side. I know that it is irrational but I don't want to endorse either campaign, despite knowing that it is an important decision.

ToneControl

Emp_Fab said:

@Mkjackary

...a "pussy arse" reason ??  )  That's a new one on me.

Well, you talk about reading this and that and making my own decision etc..  Don't you think I would prefer that ?  Do you think I'm contemplating voting based on celebrity endorsement because I haven't bothered to research myself ?  At the risk of repeating myself, it's precisely because my research has left me to decide between two piles of absolute bullshit propaganda that, instead of helping make a decision, has left me unequivocal that both sides are blurting out anything they think might work, with almost no reference to the truth.  I'm surrounded by people shouting all kinds of bollocks about a subject very very few of us have any real understanding of.  Trying to find genuinely impartial advice on the subject is like trying to find a unicorn that shits rocking-horse poo.

Everyone has an agenda.

And that's the problem with this referendum...  Unlike general elections where people are being asked to vote for situations they already have experience of - a labour govt, a conservative one etc, and can base their decisions on that as well as the campaigns being reined-in by it too, this is effectively a vote between one partially-known option (remain) and a complete unknown (leave).  Nobody really knows what would happen if we leave, and the campaigns play on that with their wild swinging statements.

Almost everything I've read about it has ultimately revealed itself to have an agenda of its own.  I genuinely haven't got any trustworthy data that I can base a decision on, and I think a hell of a lot of people are in the same boat.

in that case - fall back on "reality check" data

what other countries are most similar to the UK, and how do they fare outside the EU

Fretwired

Heartfeltdawn said:

Some people have talked themselves into a belief that UK voters and UK MPs aren't capable of making those sorts of decisions, and they are best referred to expert unelected officials in Brussels

If you look at the polls and analysis I think the shift to Remain has more to do with Osborne's dire threats of tax rises and jobs cuts and a massive austerity budget. The best Sadiq Khan could come up with in last nights debate was "lies, lies, lies" every time Boris spoke. I suppose being London mayor he's now in the pocket of the bankers and the City of London - he needs their tax money and generosity for good causes.

The quality of the debate has been poor and the FUD from Remain is enough for me to vote Leave just to wipe the smug satisfied smiles off the faces of Cameron and Osborne. The 'we can reform Europe - but only if we stay in' slogan is the biggest load of bullshit ever spoken by a politician.

For me the decision is simple - it's about sovereignty and who makes our laws. Immigration isn't a major issue for me. I'd like control over who is let in, but the only person talking about limits has been Cameron. I doubt immigration will fall as we have massive skills shortages. Our Supreme Court should be the highest court in the land not the ECJ and if our PM wants to raise tax to fund the NHS they should be able to do so without big business going to the ECJ to get our tax laws repealed.

But hey, we must have cheap holidays in the sun and who wants to queue in the non-EU queue with all the Americans ...

Interesting blog ...

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/14742/?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=ff1ee7b706-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-ff1ee7b706-71637429

Sporky

Fretwired said:

For me the decision is simple - it's about sovereignty and who makes our laws.

But that's a choice between one bunch of politicians who don't care about you or me, and two bunches of politicians who don't care about you or me. To me the sovereignty thing seems very much about the principle rather than any likely reality.

Mkjackary

@Emp_fab I called it that because imo it is, you can't make a judgement that you feel comfortable with, so you go for something that has no effect on anything. You don't want to make the wrong decision that you will regret so you make a shit one instead.

As I have said, daily politics has been pretty good at supporting both sides equally, and calling both sides out on the bs. You have fact checkers too, they are useful, but there are only a few facts in the referendum, the rest is guesses, and whose guess you trust the most.

What I did is throughout all the daily politics and stuff, listened to both sides, listened to the points I liked about each side, then did my independant research to find out whether the things I like about the campaign are bs. And if they are then what are the real figures.

Remain in a sense we fully know, but we only control 3-8% of it's future. We know where it wants to go, but we also know we have vetos and voting power.

Leave we know some stuff about, and we know some things will happen within a certain range. Ie we know there is probably going to be a short term drop in the pound, we know it could effect long term GDP figures, but in even the worst case scenario we are still growing financially. The realistic figures are growth rates changed by -0.8% to +0.6%. by 2030. http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

If it makes a difference, what swung it for me was that the most convincing argument for remain is "Risk", for me that isn't good enough.

Mkjackary

Sporky;1120611" said:

Fretwired said:



For me the decision is simple - it's about sovereignty and who makes our laws.





But that's a choice between one bunch of politicians who don't care about you or me, and two bunches of politicians who don't care about you or me. To me the sovereignty thing seems very much about the principle rather than any likely reality.

I completely agree, but when one bunch of politicians screw us over we can vote them out, when the other bunch do, we can't do anything

ICBM

ToneControl said:

what other countries are most similar to the UK, and how do they fare outside the EU

A faded superpower with delusions of grandeur despite the loss of its empire and a failed war in Afghanistan, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, nuclear weapons, oil and gas, an issue with home-grown Islamic terrorism, football hooliganism, paranoia about the EU and Germany's ambitions and always harking back to beating them in WWII…

So how is Russia doing outside the EU?

Fretwired

Sporky said:

Fretwired said:

For me the decision is simple - it's about sovereignty and who makes our laws.

But that's a choice between one bunch of politicians who don't care about you or me, and two bunches of politicians who don't care about you or me. To me the sovereignty thing seems very much about the principle rather than any likely reality.

Our governments can be kicked out and people power has shown the politicians can be forced into U-turns - look at disability benefits plans and the junior doctors dispute. No such joy with the EU. And TTIP is not off the agenda - Tusk and co want a bigger budget so we'll be paying more .. the EU is a journey not an organisation. If we stay we will have the Euro - continually opting out cannot continue as fiscal union and tax harmonisation with be required to save the Euro.

Sporky

Hmm.

Thanks!

I will have a think. I do appreciate the calm and reasoned arguments.

fretmeister

Just in case anyone has missed it.

The Good Friday Peace agreement REQUIRES the continuing application of the Convention on Human Rights.

Leaving the convention will breach the Good Friday agreement automatically.