EU Referendum Vote - Poll

eSully

Link here if you want to add your vote to the poll

Chalky

Please tell us again @UnclePsychosis - 88% of discredited 'experts' said what?

UnclePsychosis

chillidoggy;1091621" said:

UnclePsychosis said:



Phil_aka_Pip said:



UnclePsychosis said:

insulting to professional economists










Well, you could try "insulting" them. Or you could just point out that none of them have ever accurately predicted anything, and that if you asked n economists for the solution to a problem they'd give you as minimum of n different answers.










Ipsos Mori took n = 639 of them. 

And, instead of 639 different answers, 88% of them "thought it most likely that real GDP would be negatively impacted in the next 5 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. 4% thought GDP would be positively impacted over the same time period and the 7% thought GDP would be broadly unaffected." 

If that wasn't bad enough for Brexit, 73% of the 639 thought "that real household incomes in the UK would be lower over the next 10 to 20 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market. This compares with 10% who thought that incomes would rise and 13% who thought that incomes would be broadly unaffected."



So, economists are overwhelmingly against Brexit.

Scientists and Universities are overwhelmingly against Brexit

Immigrants are a net benefit to the UK economy and have "no negative effect on UK wages", thus demolishing another Brexit myth. 

Still, you guys carry on putting your fingers in your ears. "La la la la la, not listening, nasty economists, nasty scientists, nasty germans, la la la la la"....












I'm voting 'Out' just to piss you off!

Well, at least its a reason to vote for Leave that's actually accurate. That's something I suppose.

Drew_TNBD

Scottish Independence == Gud
UK Independence == Bad


....

Fuck off wi' that logic.

UnclePsychosis

Drew_fx;1091775" said:

Scottish Independence == Gud

UK Independence == Bad





....



Fuck off wi' that logic.

I don't want Scottish Independence.

Nice try, though.

Funnily enough a few pages ago I was told I was wrong when I said that "UK independence good, Scottish independence bad" was a tad hypocritical though.

ICBM

I didn't actually want Scottish 'independence' in the sense of being a totally separate nation, even though I voted Yes. What I wanted - and still want - is a federal UK. I thought a vote for independence - followed by a new, looser union sharing many UK-level agreements, which would almost certainly have happened since anything else would have been far too difficult to achieve for both sides - was a faster and surer route to that than 'Devo Max' (although that's the second best option).

And I want that federal UK to be part of a (more loosely) federal EU in the end. So I don't see there's any contradiction or hypocrisy there.

But if that isn't an option at all, I think I'd prefer to be in an independent Scotland that's part of the EU than in a UK that isn't - although I would prefer not to have to make that choice, since I think it will be worse for all parties.

Drew_TNBD

UnclePsychosis said:

Drew_fx;1091775" said:

Scottish Independence == Gud

UK Independence == Bad





....



Fuck off wi' that logic.

I don't want Scottish Independence.

Nice try, though.

Funnily enough a few pages ago I was told I was wrong when I said that "UK independence good, Scottish independence bad" was a tad hypocritical though.

Not aimed at you at all, Mr. Victim.

chillidoggy

I'm perfectly happy for Scottish independence, just as long as I don't have to pay for it in my taxes.

Fretwired

@UnclePsychosis

We were told by the great and the good that if the UK did not join the Euro, much of the City would decamp to Paris and Frankfurt, the Japanese carmakers would up sticks and our economy would be severely damaged. Never happened.

In 2013 the IMF’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, warned that Britain’s growth forecasts were very low. When challenged, the Chief Economist responded: ‘I am right and they are wrong’. His estimates turned out to be inaccurate and UK growth was much stronger than he predicted.

In June 2013, the IMF was forced to admit it had issued ‘economic projections that were too optimistic’ about its joint austerity programme with the EU in Greece.

Back in 1979 economists forecast Japan's economy would overtake the USA to become the biggest economy in the world - it never got close.

Irving Fisher, one of America's greatest ever economists, said in October 1929 that he believed equities had reached a "permanently high plateau." Less than two weeks later, stocks plunged and didn't reach the highs they fell from for 25 years.

Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel Prize in economics, said in 1961 that "the Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive." The Soviet economy collapsed.

In 2010, billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson issued a warning that "the next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch," predicting a severe supply shortage. Five years later, the price of oil is actually lower than it was then.

James Glassman and Kevin Hassett's 1999 book "Dow 36,000" predicted that the Dow Jones stock index would more than triple in the years ahead. Even now, 16 years later, the index is only just halfway to 36,000.

Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned in his 2007 book "The Age of Turbulence" that the world might need double digit interest rates to control inflation in the near future. Rates have been near zero for the vast majority of the time since.

Joan Robinson, one of the 20th century's most prominent Keynesian economists, visited the Koreas in 1964 and said "as the North continues to develop and the South to degenerate, soon or later the curtain of lies must surely begin to tear." South Korea is model of efficiency whilst North Korea is a basket case.

Professor Ravi Batra wrote a book called "The Great Depression of 1990," predicting global turmoil. It was a New York Times number one bestseller in 1987, yet the world's economy hit a boom period.

I could go on with examples of poor economic forecasts.

Universities and scientists have a vested interest as the first requires cash from foreign students and the second gets EU funding and access to EU projects.

The experts can just f**k off. They're irrelevant.

This debate is simple. Who do you want to govern the UK? Do you want to be part of an EU superstate and do you want the Euro? If we remain we will have to dump the pound and take the Euro to stay at the centre of the EU's decision making machinery - we will be stuck bailing out the likes of Greece, Spain and Portugal. These are facts. Greece will need a bailout in the Autumn.

UnclePsychosis

Fretwired said:

The experts can just f**k off. They're irrelevant.

Welcome to Brexit: where you should ignore educated opinion. Even if those experts come from different fields, and have come to the same conclusion for vastly different reasons.

The rise of anti-intellectualism is fast becoming a serious threat it seems. See also Donald Trump.

Phil_aka_Pip

"educated opinion" is only of use if its predictions are accurate. A homeopathist may be highly educated, as may be an astrologer, but it doesn't mean you should trust them

Fretwired

UnclePsychosis said:

Fretwired said:

The experts can just f**k off. They're irrelevant.

Welcome to Brexit: where you should ignore educated opinion. Even if those experts come from different fields, and have come to the same conclusion for vastly different reasons.

The rise of anti-intellectualism is fast becoming a serious threat it seems. See also Donald Trump.

Educated opinion ... ever studied economics? I did it for four years - it's not an exact science. In this case you cannot predict anything as to start with an economic forecast will depend on what sort of deal we might get from the EU or whether they just leave us on the WTO deal (2.5% tariff) - we won't know that until we leave. It will also depend on what happens to the Euro - if problems with Greece remain the Euro could collapse and cash would flow into London. Being out of the EU would allow us to trade with other countries. The bottom line is no economist on Earth can forecast what will happen with any reliability. Cannot be done. The IMF consistently get things wrong and they have some of the best economists on the planet.

And who pays these economists? Who do they work for?

UnclePsychosis

Twice now you've questioned whether people only hold their opinions because of vested interests.

You're right, it's all a big conspiracy. Everyone against Brexit is in on it. Paid up EU conspiracy members.

It's amazing they kept it secret for so long.

Tinfoil hats at the ready, chaps!

Drew_TNBD

UnclePsychosis said:

Twice now you've questioned whether people only hold their opinions because of vested interests.

You're right, it's all a big conspiracy. Everyone against Brexit is in on it. Paid up EU conspiracy members.

It's amazing they kept it secret for so long.

Tinfoil hats at the ready, chaps!

More insults. At least some of are aware when we're being dickheads!

slacker

The whole debate is like a Lee and Lance sketch. Is that what you want? Cos that's what'll happen. 

Chalky

UnclePsychosis;1091897" said:

Fretwired said:



The experts can just f**k off. They're irrelevant.














Welcome to Brexit: where you should ignore educated opinion. Even if those experts come from different fields, and have come to the same conclusion for vastly different reasons. The rise of anti-intellectualism is fast becoming a serious threat it seems. See also Donald Trump.

You see yourself as an intellectual?

)

Bidley

UnclePsychosis said:

Fretwired said:

The experts can just f**k off. They're irrelevant.

Welcome to Brexit: where you should ignore educated opinion. Even if those experts come from different fields, and have come to the same conclusion for vastly different reasons.

The rise of anti-intellectualism is fast becoming a serious threat it seems. See also Donald Trump.

Dude, you completely ignored @Fretwired's post and cherry-picked a sentence that best suits the impression you want to give people of the Brexit campaign. Much like the rest of the Remain campaign

If your argument for Remain is that "anyone who thinks anything else is a dumbass", then you're not doing anyone any favours. Equally "these clever people think we should stay in, so should you" is silly.

Fretwired

UnclePsychosis said:

Twice now you've questioned whether people only hold their opinions because of vested interests.

You're right, it's all a big conspiracy. Everyone against Brexit is in on it. Paid up EU conspiracy members.

It's amazing they kept it secret for so long.

Tinfoil hats at the ready, chaps!

It's politics - there are always vested interests. According to leaks from within the Tory Party many big business leaders are supporting Cameron in return for a gong. And I work with a number of universities that rely on funding from foreign students and the EU for research. I'd have thought they'd have a vested interest in remaining. The decision to remain or leave will be based on a combination of emotion and vested interests for all us.

I'm just curious as to why you put so much store in economic experts? We have no idea what happens next should we vote to leave. The EU believes it could take two years to negotiate exit during which time we would remain members. There are too many variables to make any reliable economic forecast so at best these economists are offering a worthless opinion.

The ECB's near two-year long experiment with negative interest rates has been a complete failure, and deflationary pressures across the Eurozone are actually getting worse, not better, despite the efforts of Europe's central bank to try and boost growth.Economic research group Markit says France and Germany hover close to stagnation - if Europe was to fall back into recession it would be the worst possible scenario: a recession and deflation at the same time. Maybe it's time we left the sinking ship.

The UK doesn't have a trade agreement with China and yet we sell them billions of pounds worth of goods each year. The national airline has just ordered billions of pounds of aircraft engines from Rolls Royce. There is a big wide world outside the EU.

UnclePsychosis

Drew_fx said:

UnclePsychosis said:

Twice now you've questioned whether people only hold their opinions because of vested interests.

You're right, it's all a big conspiracy. Everyone against Brexit is in on it. Paid up EU conspiracy members.

It's amazing they kept it secret for so long.

Tinfoil hats at the ready, chaps!

More insults. At least some of are aware when we're being dickheads!

I'm fully aware that I'm being a dickhead. I'm just fed up of attempting to be reasonable or polite to inward-looking nationalists and conspiracy theorists. They're not interested in a debate---post expert opinion and they either ignore it or claim its part of some gigantic conspiracy. Its tedious and frustrating.

UnclePsychosis

Chalky said:

UnclePsychosis;1091897" said:

Fretwired said:



The experts can just f**k off. They're irrelevant.














Welcome to Brexit: where you should ignore educated opinion. Even if those experts come from different fields, and have come to the same conclusion for vastly different reasons. The rise of anti-intellectualism is fast becoming a serious threat it seems. See also Donald Trump.

You see yourself as an intellectual?

)

I wasn't referring to myself. You're not very smart, are you?