so ....... are we leaving or not????

Fretwired

Snap said:

Fretwired said:

I think we'll be staying. The EU is ratcheting up the pain and we've got no leader - well done Cameron.

Merkel says 'no special deal with the UK' - well have to take a Norway style deal or nothing (big fees, free movement, bound by the rules but get free market access)

The EU and Belgium has set up a group/company to get British companies to relocate to the EU, especially banks. Funds will be available.

Sturgeon is meeting EU leaders on Friday - Junker thinks a way can be found for Scotland to Remain in the EU.

The pound and markets will plunge tomorrow.

Not so sure about that. FTSE is doing rather nicely so far, up 1.67%.

You'd need some steel balls to be a trader atm. Market seems to have a will of its own right now. I thought we'd have seen a drop today too.

So, at present, the impact of our decision in terms of the FTSE and the pound is not as bad as predicted. Very early days but all the same very interesting.

We should never forget that the UK economy is relatively good, especially when compared to the EU nations.

@Snap good points well made. Having thought about it I'm for out - I wouldn't even bother negotiating. Just take the WTO tariffs. More bile and crap from Junker and Hollande this morning. They obviously don't want us around.

Snap

Modulus_Amps said:

^^ probably all boosted by the USA saying they want a trade deal as soon as we are out the EU.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684164/Brexit-Barack-Obama-hysteria-US-UK-trade-deal-Norway-option-EU-referendum

 yes, seems to be being overlooked this - we will be able to deal directly with some massive markets, at deals negotiated by us.

Huge potential

Fretwired

Modulus_Amps said:

^^ probably all boosted by the USA saying they want a trade deal as soon as we are out the EU.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684164/Brexit-Barack-Obama-hysteria-US-UK-trade-deal-Norway-option-EU-referendum

I guess Boeing and co are putting on the pressure - we're buying lots of military hardware from the US right now so jobs are on the line. And once out of the EU we can partner with the US rather than the EU on projects like the disastrous transport plane.

jaygtr

We're not going to leave.

The majority of MPs don't want to leave. By now the majority of the population don't want to leave. The EU (despite some tough talk) don't want us to leave.

All that needs to be found is a way to do it without to much egg left on faces, and without to much support transferring to ukip!
It'll just take some time.

Moe_Zambeek

Junker and Hollande aren't talking to us, they're trying to maintain order in their own constituencies. Junker may be feeling a little insecure (and so he should) and Hollande is the least well-liked French pres in living memory, facing an election where he said 'judge me on employment' (fail!), where the country has become a terrorist favourite, and under intense pressure from the FN. Uncertainty is not their ally at the moment. 

 The market turmoil may now volte-face and start considering in more detail the still-present issues in an EU about to lose its second largest economy. The problems in Greece were not resolved, Italy remains problematic (and 'too big to fail'), and Spain still can't resolve their governmental problems. Meanwhile, Geert Wilders is making progress in the Netherlands and at least some of the Scandic countries will be marginal in terms of their peoples' support for an unreformed EU. 

It's now critical for the EU to prevent these issues coming back into focus. There is a conflict to be resolved by those clamouring for significant structural and philosophical change in the EU, and those who prefer to push on for ever closer union. I would suspect that the former group now have more leverage. Whatever happens from now on there is the very real possibility that a *vote* for Brexit (not necessarily an *actual* Brexit) is the catalyst that was required to shift the EU back into a sustainable trajectory; even the global financial meltdown was not powerful enough to do so in the past. 

 Time will tell.

Another point worth noting - one of the reasons many of the pollsters called the last election completely wrong was that they were seduced to an extent by what is expressed on social media. What they discovered is that it's really an echo chamber. There may be lots of people saying things on Facebook & Twitter and online comments, but these are often as not quite different to opinions expressed elsewhere. Ask yourself this - given that over 50% of the population voted out, how many pro-Brexit posts have you seen on FaceBook versus anti-Brexit? I would not be so quick to assume that re-running the referendum tomorrow would give a substantially different result.

Modulus_Amps

jaygtr said:

We're not going to leave.

The majority of MPs don't want to leave. By now the majority of the population don't want to leave. The EU (despite some tough talk) don't want us to leave.

All that needs to be found is a way to do it without to much egg left on faces, and without to much support transferring to ukip!
It'll just take some time.

If we don't leave UKIP support will be boosted dramatically... and none of us want that

Modulus_Amps

digitalscream said:

Modulus_Amps said:

^^ probably all boosted by the USA saying they want a trade deal as soon as we are out the EU.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684164/Brexit-Barack-Obama-hysteria-US-UK-trade-deal-Norway-option-EU-referendum

...and the fact that all the backpedalling is nudging people towards the idea that we're not actually going to leave. The bounce-back - assuming it's not a dead-cat bounce - coincided exactly with that turn in the media reports when all the politicians started with the "Oh, hang on a minute...we don't have to do it right now, and we like Europe really...".

yes quite likely that's the case too, but the story does show that when the fifth biggest economy in the world says " sorry guys we have had our hands tied, but we are now open for business" the rest of the world does not respond by putting us to the back of the queue, the opposite, they want in on it.

The fact that Junker has had to ban other EU countries negotiating with the UK says the same thing, they will all want a piece of our pie, and when pie is concerned it is first come first served.

jaygtr

Modulus_Amps;1131293" said:

jaygtr said:

We're not going to leave.



The majority of MPs don't want to leave. By now the majority of the population don't want to leave. The EU (despite some tough talk) don't want us to leave.



All that needs to be found is a way to do it without to much egg left on faces, and without to much support transferring to ukip!

It'll just take some time.










If we don't leave UKIP support will be boosted dramatically... and none of us want that

Yes your entirely correct.

That's why nothing will be said for a while until things calm down.
If it was mentioned now there would be uproar.

We might get a brexit, but it will be in name only.

I don't know how it will be done, and I suspect no one else does. It's something for after the Tory leadership election.
The longer it carries on the easier it'll be. Like Jeremy hunt suggested leaving it till the 2020 election.
There's loads of thing that can happen in that space of time.

ICBM

Moe_Zambeek said:

Ask yourself this - given that over 50% of the population voted out

You were right up to that point.

Over 50% of the population did *not* vote out. It wasn't even 50% of the electorate.

It was 37% of the electorate, which is in fact only about 26% of the population.

These are extremely important differences. Sorry to keep harping on about this, but it matters.

axisus

ICBM said:

Moe_Zambeek said:

Ask yourself this - given that over 50% of the population voted out

You were right up to that point.

Over 50% of the population did *not* vote out. It wasn't even 50% of the electorate.

It was 37% of the electorate, which is in fact only about 26% of the population.

These are extremely important differences. Sorry to keep harping on about this, but it matters.

This is what irks me. People are saying that there is a mandate, Junkers said that they are in no doubt of what the UK population wants, but in actual fact it is a relatively small percentage. Personally, I think that Cameron should have said that if the votes were in x% of eachother a second referendum would be required.

Moe_Zambeek

ICBM said:

Moe_Zambeek said:

Ask yourself this - given that over 50% of the population voted out

You were right up to that point.

Over 50% of the population did *not* vote out. It wasn't even 50% of the electorate.

It was 37% of the electorate, which is in fact only about 26% of the population.

These are extremely important differences. Sorry to keep harping on about this, but it matters.

That's true. But the fact remains that over 50% of those who did vote - 17.5 million people - voted Leave, and yet you could / can scarcely find a pro-Brexit voice on Facebook or Twitter. I'm not commenting on the result, or the democratic legitimacy of it, but rather the deep seated myopia of many people, and a willingness to believe that what they think and hear online is what everyone else in the country thinks. It's a dangerous situation to be in when many people think that social media is a representation of reality. It distorts the debate, and it affects the way others vote. If the Leave campaign had been seen to be seriously ahead before polling day, could that have swayed the result? I think that it would have, undoubtedly. The reported swing back to Remain in polls in the last week or so may have had an effect. Whether by enough to change the result, I don't know.

ICBM

Moe_Zambeek said:

But the fact remains, that over 50% of those who did vote - 17 million people - voted Leave, and yet you could (can) scarcely find a pro-Brexit voice on Facebook or Twitter.

I'm assuming that's because more - and generally, but not exclusively - younger people are both on social media and also supported Remain.

There was a large-scale failure of the young to turn out and vote, and I would put quite a lot of the blame for the result on them as well.

hugbot

ICBM said: Moe_Zambeek said:But the fact remains, that over 50% of those who did vote - 17 million people - voted Leave, and yet you could (can) scarcely find a pro-Brexit voice on Facebook or Twitter. I'm assuming that's because more - and generally, but not exclusively - younger people are both on social media and also supported Remain.
There was a large-scale failure of the young to turn out and vote, and I would put quite a lot of the blame for the result on them as well.


The thing is though, theres a stereotype that the young are all progressive but too lazy to vote and affect change. (insofar as this even was a progressive issue) When in fact I suspect that if voting was mandatory you'd see a lot of young people voting the same way as their parents do and the balence would turn out about the same. 

The youth vote tends to swing that way because the only young people who even vote to begin with are the ones with passionate opinions.

ICBM

hugbot said:

The thing is though, theres a stereotype that the young are all progressive but too lazy to vote and affect change. (insofar as this even was a progressive issue) When in fact I suspect that if voting was mandatory you'd see a lot of young people voting the same way as their parents do and the balence would turn out about the same. 

The youth vote tends to swing that way because the only young people who even vote to begin with are the ones with passionate opinions.

In that case it would probably have made a difference - most of their parents voted Remain too, although by a smaller margin. It was their grandparents who voted Leave.

Polling before the vote indicated that as many as 75% of under-25s would vote Remain. Unfortunately more than 60% of them didn't vote...

I know it isn't quite as simple as that, but the statistics do bear out that the failure of the young to turn out was a critical factor, if not the only one. Not blaming any of those who did of course.

Modulus_Amps

ICBM said:

Moe_Zambeek said:

But the fact remains, that over 50% of those who did vote - 17 million people - voted Leave, and yet you could (can) scarcely find a pro-Brexit voice on Facebook or Twitter.

I'm assuming that's because more - and generally, but not exclusively - younger people are both on social media and also supported Remain.

There was a large-scale failure of the young to turn out and vote, and I would put quite a lot of the blame for the result on them as well.

Agreed, and many are now complaining that their apathy is a bitter pill to swallow

Clarky

jaygtr said:

We're not going to leave.

The majority of MPs don't want to leave. By now the majority of the population don't want to leave. The EU (despite some tough talk) don't want us to leave.

All that needs to be found is a way to do it without to much egg left on faces, and without to much support transferring to ukip!
It'll just take some time.

does the art of diplomacy still exist in these modern times? lol..

what struck me as interesting was the difference between the two sets of meetings..

Cameron and the other heads of state.. which was apparently somber, a bit like a wake, yet business like in trying to understand what happened, how and why, and where do we go from here

and then there's Juncker and co in some sort of circus, shit slinging with one hand and mutual masturbation with the other

Chalky

ICBM;1131315" said:

Moe_Zambeek said:Ask yourself this - given that over 50% of the population voted out





You were right up to that point.

Over 50% of the population did *not* vote out. It wasn't even 50% of the electorate.

It was 37% of the electorate, which is in fact only about 26% of the population.

These are extremely important differences. Sorry to keep harping on about this, but it matters.

No its does not. The rule of the democratic process is Majority = 50% of votes cast +1 or greater. You don't like but it is literally the law of the land for elections and referenda IIRC.

Sadly @ICBM's definition of majority is not similarly enshrined in law.

holnrew

Chalky said:

ICBM;1131315" said:

Moe_Zambeek said:Ask yourself this - given that over 50% of the population voted out





You were right up to that point.

Over 50% of the population did *not* vote out. It wasn't even 50% of the electorate.

It was 37% of the electorate, which is in fact only about 26% of the population.

These are extremely important differences. Sorry to keep harping on about this, but it matters.

No its does not. The rule of the democratic process is Majority = 50% of votes cast +1 or greater. You don't like but it is literally the law of the land for elections and referenda IIRC.

Sadly @ICBM's definition of majority is not similarly enshrined in law.

He's taking issue with use of "population" in this instance. It is an important distinction.

ICBM

Chalky said:

The rule of the democratic process is Majority = 50% of votes cast +1 or greater. You don't like but it is literally the law of the land for elections and referenda IIRC.

No it isn't.

Elections are FPTP or other more complex systems, which are only decided by the majority of votes cast if there are only two candidates.

Referenda can have any set bar the government wants - for example the first Scottish devolution referendum in 1979, which required 40% of the electorate voting Yes to pass, and hence was rejected even though a majority of the voters actually voted for it. They could easily have made this one the same, in which case we wouldn't be in this mess now.

quarky

I am so up in the air about the whole thing. On the one hand, I hate the way so many remainers seem to wish harm on their own country now (I work with many who cheered as the FTSE dropped to monthly lows, and not because they wanted to jump in), and they can go fuck themselves with that attitude. It is a shame for people who are genuinely concerned about the future though.

On the other hand, going back to what Cameron said in December, that the UK will of course be fine outside the EU, I still think it is short-term pain for long term gain.

So should (rhetorical question, we all have our own answers/opinions) the MPs drag the country out of the EU for the benefit of us all (and risk losing Scotland) despite the unrest, or should the back down, and say goodbye to any pretense of being an independent country.

I really wish it was at least 60/40 one way or the other.