so ....... are we leaving or not????

Skipped

If you want to give me a free £10 bet, I will bet it on "not leaving".

Chris Grayling's interview on Newsnight was mind blowing. Didn't sound like leaving to me. And that is before I saw Jeremy Hunt's Norway Plus plan.

We all know that language evolves.
Gay for example.
Is there any compelling reason why Out should not change it's meaning to In?
Is a Rose still a Rose by any other name?

Bogwhoppit

Juncker is the face of the EU, let the British public see more of his face and we might just trigger 'Article 50'

octatonic

John Oliver was awesome.

"Three time cover model for 'Punchable Face', Nigel Farage". 

Clarky

octatonic said:

Snap said:

Fretwired said:

octatonic said:

Europe is pretty clear it seems.

No rights without obligations.

No taking something out without putting something in.

No cherry picking, no 'cake and eat it'.

Fine .. no BMW's or French cheese ... when money talks, principles take a walk.

Farage on top form ... I'd never vote for him but it's great watching him wind up the overpaid eurocrats and MEPs .. watch the video.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/nigel-farage-shares-cosy-embrace-with-jean-claude-juncker/

 I think he's behaving like a cock tbh. He is one smug little chuff. What he's perhaps missing is that whilst other govt ministers are trying to steer a UK beneficial path out of this, he is just making it more difficult with his self satisfied jibes.

Mr Farage - its not all about you, its about every single one of us.

Agree- I was embarrassed for the country.

What a monumental cock.

yeah, made me cringe a bit at times..

some of his comments didn't seem to a good way to ease the way to a good exit deal

Clarky

Sporky said:

That Juncker bloke sounds a bit unhinged. Does he foam at the mouth and have a bulging vein on his forehead?

the sooner he's gone the better..

he seems to me to be a small and hateful man

octatonic

Clarky said:

yeah, made me cringe a bit at times..

some of his comments didn't seem to a good way to ease the way to a good exit deal

He's powered by chaos and rudeness- he has been acting this way for years.

Fretwired

octatonic said:

Clarky said:

yeah, made me cringe a bit at times..

some of his comments didn't seem to a good way to ease the way to a good exit deal

He's powered by chaos and rudeness- he has been acting this way for years.

You've obviously not watched PMQs .... :-)

Modulus_Amps

digitalscream said:

Heh...just saw this on Facebook...

An interesting fact: my back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest by the time we actually leave the EU, a majority of the UK will want to Remain, even if nobody changes their mind.

It'll take at least 2-3 years to negotiate us leaving. In that time around 1.5 million UK citizens will die and 2 million will turn 18. With 18 year olds about 75% in favour of the EU and those 65+ 60/40 against it, Remain will gain just under a million supporters and Leave will lose about a third of a million.

Even if nobody changes their mind, by the time the thing we voted for comes to pass, public opinion will be against it. Demographics are terrifying, and politics is terrifyingly short-term.

There obviously isn't a solution to that, but it's another potential wrinkle in the whole "will of the people" thing.

This ignores the fact that only 32% of 18-24 year olds bothered to vote, so that 2 million becomes 0.75*2m*0.32 = 480K votes for remain

The "dying" turned out at approx 80%, so 0.6 * 0.8*1.5m = 720k votes lost for leave

so apathy looses again....

digitalscream

Yep, it also ignores the "changed my mind" vote and a host of other things. It's just a little thought-provoking story, of course.

Fretwired

Interesting .. from the Times (again) - perhaps we don't need a trade deal after all ....


It is hard to overstate how utterly unimportant a trade deal with the EU really would be for the UK.

Import tariffs to the EU (for any WTO member without a trade deal) amount to 2.4%. averaged over all imports. A fall of 2.4% in the pound against the Euro completely wipes out any effect of EU import tariffs and at the same time makes imports to the UK from Europe less competitive with UK produced goods. The reciprocal tariffs against imports from the EU would only increase further the competitiveness of UK produced goods whilst increasing government revenues.

Further, EU import tariffs are weighted towards things the UK does not export to any significant extent i.e. agricultural products and textiles. Currency movements therefore completely swamp any effect of trade tariffs.

The EU negotiated very badly during the Uruguay round of trade talks and must apply very low tariffs to its imports (these commitments are legally binding). Other countries have much higher tariffs so it is no wonder that when the EU offers tariff free trade deals to other WTO members it finds no takers.

In fact the EU has only ever managed to negotiate two trade deals with other WTO members of any consequence (S. Korea and Mexico). The oft cited 50 trade deals negotiated by the EU are otherwise with such giant economies as those of St. Kitts, The Faroe Islands, Barbuda, The Occupied Palestinian Territories, Papua New Guinea, Kosovo, Macedonia etc etc. The reason these countries accepted an agreement with the EU is that it eliminates tariffs on their agricultural exports to the EU, but as they produce little else, allowing tariff free imports from the EU does little damage to their local industry. The same rationale does not apply to the UK at all.

In my opinion the Leave campaign should have poured scorn on the value of a trade deal with the EU from the outset, pointing out how Chinese goods make up the vast majority of goods in stores throughout the EU and how companies from countries that don’t have a trade deal with the EU such as Sony, Apple, Microsoft, Samsung etc seem to do very well selling their goods to it”.

Snap

What I didnt like about Farage was his smugness.

Yep, the EP is full of lightweights, and Juncker comes across as a div, but Farage would IMO be far better to behave with bit more class and not lower himself to petty jibes and "I told you so" rhetoric.

He sounded like a schoolboy gloating over his bag full of sweets.

He's a tit, a prejudiced loudmouthed tit whose behaviour through the referendum campaign was poor and at times racist and ignorant.

This morning he really showed himself up. Pillock

Fretwired

Snap said:

What I didnt like about Farage was his smugness.

Yep, the EP is full of lightweights, and Juncker comes across as a div, but Farage would IMO be far better to behave with bit more class and not lower himself to petty jibes and "I told you so" rhetoric.

He sounded like a schoolboy gloating over his bag full of sweets.

He's a tit, a prejudiced loudmouthed tit whose behaviour through the referendum campaign was poor and at times racist and ignorant.

This morning he really showed himself up. Pillock

Where have you been .. Farage has no class .. he's Flash Harry and Arthur Daley rolled into one ... a spiv .. I just love the way he gets under their skin.

And if you watch EU debates (I get paid to do it sometimes) there are plenty of other MEPs from the Netherlands, and Germany who give him a run for his money.

Snap

Mate, he's a berk. He has his strengths granted, but I think at the moment we don't need his braggadicio. Its a bit, OK you've had your fun but stand aside and let the grown ups deal with it now please.

But perhaps you could apply that to the whole EP.

I don;t think he's a spiv, he's more dangerous than that. He is the mouthpiece for a movement that is not far from tipping into fascistic jingoism. That might sound over the top, but his proclamations, usually based on thin evidence, or outright lies, click with racist sentiment. ANd I think he knows what he's doing.

IMO, Farage and his bunch of besuited thugs are not far from the EDL and BNP (as was).

Chalky

Fretwired;1129888" said:

Snap said:

What I didnt like about Farage was his smugness.



Yep, the EP is full of lightweights, and Juncker comes across as a div, but Farage would IMO be far better to behave with bit more class and not lower himself to petty jibes and "I told you so" rhetoric.



He sounded like a schoolboy gloating over his bag full of sweets.



He's a tit, a prejudiced loudmouthed tit whose behaviour through the referendum campaign was poor and at times racist and ignorant.



This morning he really showed himself up. Pillock










Where have you been .. Farage has no class .. he's Flash Harry and Arthur Daley rolled into one ... a spiv .. I just love the way he gets under their skin.



And if you watch EU debates (I get paid to do it sometimes) there are plenty of other MEPs from the Netherlands, and Germany who give him a run for his money.

As I've said before, Farage has had his moment in the sun. Its downhill all the way for him now.

menamestom

The one thing I like about Farage is he says exactly what he thinks. 

The one thing I hate about Farage is what he thinks.

Snap

@^  pmsl, excellent

capo4th

We won't be leaving the EU. We will renegotiate various terms and be back in the club by Christmas.

Immigration will not change and we will all be poorer in the short term.

This is all on good authority from a friend in the city who is mates with someone who is a bit chummy with big Dave

Bogwhoppit

Snap said:

Mate, he's a berk.

That may be true, but he's a berk that received 3.8 million votes in 2015, and who arguably made a significant impact on the leave vote.  To ignore and ridicule him is dangerous, as Dave found out when he ignored the electorate.

Bogwhoppit

capo4th said:

We won't be leaving the EU. We will renegotiate various terms and be back in the club by Christmas.

Immigration will not change and we will all be poorer in the short term.

This is all on good authority from a friend in the city who is mates with someone who is a bit chummy with big Dave

I don't think that needs to come from a source, its fairly evident that's now going to happen. The back peddling is so fierce I can hear the strain on the chain links.

For future voting I suggest a government warning on the ballot paper. 'Tick the correct box or you'll screw democracy up'

Fretwired

menamestom said:

The one thing I like about Farage is he says exactly what he thinks. 

The one thing I hate about Farage is what he thinks.

Exzcellent .. I like that ...