so ....... are we leaving or not????

octatonic

crunchman said:

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

If this happens there will be carnage for the Tories at the next election.  Ukip would probably take 30 or 40 seats from them.

I could see some kind of deal which almost the same as being in, but has a different name.  No politician would be stupid enough to directly backtrack on the result of the referendum.

Agree.

Unless the Tories elect a leader and then immediately call an election before A50 is triggered.

Bogwhoppit

The BBC

crunchman said:

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

  No politician would be stupid enough to directly backtrack on the result of the referendum.

They were stupid enough to invoke one

paulmapp8306

crunchman said:

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

If this happens there will be carnage for the Tories at the next election.  Ukip would probably take 30 or 40 seats from them.

I could see some kind of deal which almost the same as being in, but has a different name.  No politician would be stupid enough to directly backtrack on the result of the referendum.

Its happened before, though in other countries.

eSully

paulmapp8306 said:

quarky said:

tbm said:

This thread is worth reading by all, but leave voters in particular.

https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362070576898048

Wait, was that border not there before the EU? Or have the EU invented time-travel?

Its also untrue.  I think you'd find Gibralta has a land boarder with the EU as well.

Good point, I forgot about Gibraltar when I said NI was Britains only land border. However, my understanding is Gibraltar does have border control. The concern for NI is that they don't have border control and don't want it reinstated.

edit - If you are a citizen of a European Union (EU) member state, you can simply show your passport or - if applicable - national identity card to enter/leave Gibraltar. Border controls are in operation between Spain and Gibraltar - Gibraltar is outside the Schengen passport-free travel area. Even though it is a British overseas territory, passports are needed for travel to/from the UK.

lloyd

Bogwhoppit said:

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

Its something many have predicted, but it appears to be nearing confirmation. If this becomes reality, it will be the last time I'll vote.

For the remainers that want this referendum overturned, will you trust any future vote ?

In fairness this referendum was an advisory one anyway wasn't it?

paulmapp8306

Referendums are ALWAYS advisory.  Its a means to get the publics actual opinion (rather than polls/surveys).  Doesnt mean they have to follow it.  Given the slim majority, I wouldnt be surprised if we didnt actually leave - and I voted leave.  Would I get upset if we backtracked?  No.  The result was too close to demand it really.   

Does it mean that we should definitely backtrack?  No.  The public spoke, and it is now up to Westmister to decide if - given the split - we as a country can not leave the EU (or probably more likely, if we DIDNT leave, would they be in power next time - thats all mps on in all parties).

 

Fretwired

scrumhalf said:

I don't see how we can't not leave.

Our standing within the EU would be shredded.

Not really. It would be a warning to others thinking of leaving. Millions of people now wish they hadn't voted to leave. The pound has fallen, the UK's credit rating been hit and Remain FUD is in overdrive - the housing market will collapse, the UK hit with a recession, the City of London will move ... the EU is also moving to ban English from its debates and documents. I expect Osborne to be sneering on TV saying "I told you so .." .. the French don't want us to have a trade deal and Hollande is happy to pack our bags and hold open the door.

Lots of Tweets from the EU leaders on England's footballing performance .. if this carries on they'll be a debate in Parliament about war with France ,.. now where did I put my longbow .. :-)

May would also be a weak leader .. she's too shy.

Modulus_Amps

@Fretwired said:

Interesting letter ...

SIR – In 1992, a slight majority of Swiss voters refused to join the European Economic Area (50.3 per cent to 49.7 per cent).

According to the pundits – and most national newspapers – the country was going to break up. (It was indeed divided between a French-speaking Europhile minority and a German speaking anti-European majority.) The economy was going to crash and the Swiss franc was to be worth less than the Zimbabwean dollar.

Calls for a second vote came, and companies warned they were ready to leave the country. Local authorities talked of individual cantons joining the EU. The government was warning of a massive haemorrhage of talent.

None of this happened. Instead, after a slight recession, the economy started to grow again. Nowadays, even if the country’s relationship with the EU is far from settled, almost no one seriously envisages joining the EU or the all-but-defunct EEA. As Britain goes through similar times, it is worth remembering this.

Nicholas Antenen
Geneva, Switzerland

Amazing that this did not come out during the referendum

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3473932/Now-Swiss-withdraw-bid-join-EU-Nation-s-parliament-retracts-24-year-old-bid-member-amid-deepening-row-migration.html

as bad a position as we are in right now, the EU leaders need to get there head out the sand.

ICBM

Bogwhoppit said:

For the remainers that want this referendum overturned, will you trust any future vote ?

Yes if the rules are made explicitly clear beforehand, which this one was not. Nor were the rules set (in my opinion) correctly, with such a low bar for such a monumental decision.

lloyd said:

In fairness this referendum was an advisory one anyway wasn't it?

Exactly - but that was not made clear enough, or even at all. As a result Leave voters who think it was binding are going to be very angry… possibly justifiably.

The question is, does the risk of the harm that refusing to carry it out will cause outweigh the risk of the harm that going through with it will?

The failure of Cameron and his advisors to think about this beforehand in the blithe assumption that they would win is staggering.

digitalscream

Bogwhoppit said:

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

Its something many have predicted, but it appears to be nearing confirmation. If this becomes reality, it will be the last time I'll vote.

For the remainers that want this referendum overturned, will you trust any future vote ?

Firstly...it wasn't a binding referendum in the first place, so there was always a good chance of it being overturned either way.

Secondly...if there was another referendum today, it's entirely possible (if not probable) that we'd get the opposite result given the number of people who seem to be regretting putting a cross in the "Leave" box (out of the 20 or so people I've spoken to over the last few days, six said that it was just a protest vote and they'd much rather stay; not exactly a big pool, but I've heard similar stories from others). Given that it was such a slim majority, it could well be that forging ahead with Article 50 would actually be against the will of the people now. It's reasonably likely that we'll never know, mind.

Lastly...there are an awful lot of precedents for ignoring or re-voting referendum results elsewhere, and democracy didn't fail in those countries.

Bidley

The issue with overruling the referendum result, is that if we do so there's a very real possibility of a UKIP government in 2020. Which will mean not only will be going out of the EU, we'll have a bunch of lunatics running the show.

kipple

digitalscream said:

Bogwhoppit said:

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

Its something many have predicted, but it appears to be nearing confirmation. If this becomes reality, it will be the last time I'll vote.

For the remainers that want this referendum overturned, will you trust any future vote ?

Firstly...it wasn't a binding referendum in the first place, so there was always a good chance of it being overturned either way.

Secondly...if there was another referendum today, it's entirely possible (if not probable) that we'd get the opposite result given the number of people who seem to be regretting putting a cross in the "Leave" box (out of the 20 or so people I've spoken to over the last few days, six said that it was just a protest vote and they'd much rather stay; not exactly a big pool, but I've heard similar stories from others). Given that it was such a slim majority, it could well be that forging ahead with Article 50 would actually be against the will of the people now. It's reasonably likely that we'll never know, mind.

Lastly...there are an awful lot of precedents for ignoring or re-voting referendum results elsewhere, and democracy didn't fail in those countries.

Yes what a great Idea lets just keep having referendums until the government get the result THEY want.

So if the first Referendum wasnt binding why should the second one be binding. If I dont get the result I want in a second referendum I want a third referendum.. 

 

Myranda

The main reason it was not made clear that this referendum was advisory was the slippery bastard of a PM we have...

He promised to abide by the referendum, he promised that if he was PM he'd enact article 50. As soon as the result came in, he f***ed off!

He's the only member of the current governing party to promise unequivocally to follow the referendum... so it gets to be the advisory thing that apparently it always was, even though it was made out to be anything but advisory in the run up to the vote.

It all smacks a little of the North Korean tactic of make all sorts of threats and stamp your wickle feet until you get your way... if it is, then it would seem that the British people have been used as nothing more than a bargaining chip, and that our opinions matter for nothing (and I'm a remain supporter!)... 

If you're going to SAY we have the power to enact genuine change, then even if I don't like the answer, we should enact genuine change.

Even in PMQs he was saying that the country should act on the referendum - while packing his bags... 

Fretwired

Bidley said:

The issue with overruling the referendum result, is that if we do so there's a very real possibility of a UKIP government in 2020. Which will mean not only will be going out of the EU, we'll have a bunch of lunatics running the show.

There won't be a UKIP government. They have no party machine or enough cash to put up more than a handful of candidates. I'm guessing there would be a Tory government. A lot of young people would reluctantly vote Tory to stay in the EU if May became leader and reversed the decision - she may be clever and call an election to get a mandate to do it. A lot of older Tories would be unhappy, but probably won't want to usher in either UKIP or Labour - the value of their houses, savings and pensions will motivate them to stick with the Tories. People vote with their wallets. There will be a hardcore of unhappy people but the other parties could support each other by agreeing not to field multiple candidates in marginal seats that UKIP could win giving one major party (Tory/Labour/Lib Dem) a clear run.

Even in the event that UKIP did well we could see a coalition of Tories, Labour and SNP to keep them out of power.

digitalscream

kipple said:

digitalscream said:

Firstly...it wasn't a binding referendum in the first place, so there was always a good chance of it being overturned either way.

Secondly...if there was another referendum today, it's entirely possible (if not probable) that we'd get the opposite result given the number of people who seem to be regretting putting a cross in the "Leave" box (out of the 20 or so people I've spoken to over the last few days, six said that it was just a protest vote and they'd much rather stay; not exactly a big pool, but I've heard similar stories from others). Given that it was such a slim majority, it could well be that forging ahead with Article 50 would actually be against the will of the people now. It's reasonably likely that we'll never know, mind.

Lastly...there are an awful lot of precedents for ignoring or re-voting referendum results elsewhere, and democracy didn't fail in those countries.

Yes what a great Idea lets just keep having referendums until the government get the result THEY want.

So if the first Referendum wasnt binding why should the second one be binding. If I dont get the result I want in a second referendum I want a third referendum.. 

 

OK, I made the relevant bits bold so they're easier to read In my opinion, it's nothing to do with the government getting the result they want. If that's the case, then they can just ignore it anyway.

If you're trying to use a referendum to gauge the will of the people and once the very marginal results are in a significant number of people instantly pipe up and say they voted the wrong way as a protest, you can no longer be sure in any way that the referendum result represents the will of the people.

Saying, "No take-backsies" might be a little churlish for something of this magnitude, wouldn't you say?

paulmapp8306

"we could see a coalition of Tories, Labour and SNP "

I just spat my coffee over my keyboard.....

digitalscream

paulmapp8306 said:

"we could see a coalition of Tories, Labour and SNP "

I just spat my coffee over my keyboard.....

It's not too far from the truth - SNP could well be the kingmakers in any election without a significant majority.

I also wonder if we might not see the more right-leaning Labour MPs and left-leaning Tory MPs jump ship and make a new central party with more credibility and prospects than the Lib Dems.

Fretwired

paulmapp8306 said:

"we could see a coalition of Tories, Labour and SNP "

I just spat my coffee over my keyboard.....

It could be a minority Tory government with Labour and the SNP supporting the government on key legislation. If it didn't affect Scotland the SNP would probably abstain. If it did affect Scotland they could wield some power. Salmond would love it. A weakened Westminster relying on help from the SNP.

Bidley

 Fretwired said:

Bidley said:

The issue with overruling the referendum result, is that if we do so there's a very real possibility of a UKIP government in 2020. Which will mean not only will be going out of the EU, we'll have a bunch of lunatics running the show.

There won't be a UKIP government. They have no party machine or enough cash to put up more than a handful of candidates. I'm guessing there would be a Tory government. A lot of young people would reluctantly vote Tory to stay in the EU if May became leader and reversed the decision - she may be clever and call an election to get a mandate to do it. A lot of older Tories would be unhappy, but probably won't want to usher in either UKIP or Labour - the value of their houses, savings and pensions will motivate them to stick with the Tories. People vote with their wallets. There will be a hardcore of unhappy people but the other parties could support each other by agreeing not to field multiple candidates in marginal seats that UKIP could win giving one major party (Tory/Labour/Lib Dem) a clear run.

Even in the event that UKIP did well we could see a coalition of Tories, Labour and SNP to keep them out of power.

I really want you to be right.

paulmapp8306

Wouldnt they be better just joining the Lib Dems?