so ....... are we leaving or not????

octatonic

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...

I'm holding you to this.

Sporky

paulmapp8306 said:

If you loose that work (your fault or not) the Visa/permit no longer applies and off you go. 

No grace period to find another job? That sounds like a good way to lose valuable skilled workers.

paulmapp8306

octatonic;1128492" said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...





I'm holding you to this.

No problem. Im usually a floating voter con/lab. I like most of the ideals of labour, but the financial responsibility of the cons. It's generally down to if the the current labour party/leadership/manifesto is to the right of left of their ethos.

Needless to say they wouldn't get my vote in their current state.

octatonic

paulmapp8306 said:

octatonic;1128492" said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...





I'm holding you to this.

No problem. Im usually a floating voter con/lab. I like most of the ideals of labour, but the financial responsibility of the cons. It's generally down to if the the current labour party/leadership/manifesto is to the right of left of their ethos.

Needless to say they wouldn't get my vote in their current state.

Have you considered the Lib Dem's?

I am socially liberal and fiscally conservative- they are the closest party to my natural position.

I don't agree with everything they stand for but it is much, much closer then either the Tories or Labour.

I'm not trying to evangelise for them, just wondering if you've investigated the party at all and understand their values.

paulmapp8306

I did vote lib/demo once in Woolwich. I guess I just don't see them ever realistically being able to win an election.

Fretwired

Myranda said:

Think he said European Court hence my confusion... but... 

If that's all he's after it's still NOT what leave voters wanted... if May is anti ECHR then she's another to look out for.

It's the ECJ Boris hates - it has reversed £14 billion of taxes imposed on big business by the UK government with another £34 billion going through the courts. That's money that could have been spent on public services.

octatonic

paulmapp8306 said:

I did vote lib/demo once in Woolwich. I guess I just don't see them ever realistically being able to win an election.

Win, probably not.

But if you look at the role they took in coalition with the Tories- they were able to stop them from cutting public services much more than they wanted.

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/7-laws-the-lib-dems-stopped-the-tories-from-passing--gkKwqOshgb

Voting for the Lib Dems, should enough people do it, can force a coalition which can stop a future Tory government from being too severe in their cuts and stop Labour from destroying the economy.

Myranda

Are you allowed to vote Lib Dem these days? I thought they were endangered

WezV

anyone watching Cameron being drilled in Parliament right now.   I actually feel sorry for the guy, and I never thought i would say that.

I know he called the referendum and started this whole mess, can never forgive that, but he is being challenged as if leaving was his idea and he should have all the answers.  All the regions that voted out seem to be pushing him the hardest for things they really should have considered before voting out.

Bogwhoppit

octatonic said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...

I'm holding you to this.

I've spoken to the most rational level headed people about this. I was surprised, almost shocked to hear that the majority of them would indeed vote UKIP if the politicians started to back away from full on 'out out'.  I suppose desperate measures and all that.

hobbio

Myranda said:

Are you allowed to vote Lib Dem these days? I thought they were endangered

Yeah, but they've escaped the shite that Labour and the Tories have caught square in the face. Perhaps there'll be a resurgence now.

octatonic

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...

I'm holding you to this.

I've spoken to the most rational level headed people about this. I was surprised, almost shocked to hear that the majority of them would indeed vote UKIP if the politicians started to back away from full on 'out out'.  I suppose desperate measures and all that.

Yes, this is my worry.

Bogwhoppit

octatonic said:

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...

I'm holding you to this.

I've spoken to the most rational level headed people about this. I was surprised, almost shocked to hear that the majority of them would indeed vote UKIP if the politicians started to back away from full on 'out out'.  I suppose desperate measures and all that.

Yes, this is my worry.

Westminster read the mood of the people wrong going into this farce, if they do it a second time they may find farage and co sitting in the same chamber.

octatonic

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...

I'm holding you to this.

I've spoken to the most rational level headed people about this. I was surprised, almost shocked to hear that the majority of them would indeed vote UKIP if the politicians started to back away from full on 'out out'.  I suppose desperate measures and all that.

Yes, this is my worry.

Westminster read the mood of the people wrong going into this farce, if they do it a second time they may find farage and co sitting in the same chamber.

I agree.

Which is why I think the General Election should be called as soon as the new Tory leader is selected.

If they limp along with an unelected leader and the leave process is as problematic as I suspect it will and then call a GE then I'd expect to see huge gains for UKIP.

Axe_meister

Well what we are likely to get is an EU light.
One red line the EU zone will not let us cross is the free movement of labour.
We will still have to adhere to any regulations on anything we export to the EU.
We may even have to pay some money towards the club.
I fear that we will end up with a worse deal and the things the leavers wanted to be thrown out will stay.

Myranda

octatonic said:

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...

I'm holding you to this.

I've spoken to the most rational level headed people about this. I was surprised, almost shocked to hear that the majority of them would indeed vote UKIP if the politicians started to back away from full on 'out out'.  I suppose desperate measures and all that.

Yes, this is my worry.

Westminster read the mood of the people wrong going into this farce, if they do it a second time they may find farage and co sitting in the same chamber.

I agree.

Which is why I think the General Election should be called as soon as the new Tory leader is selected.

If they limp along with an unelected leader and the leave process is as problematic as I suspect it will and then call a GE then I'd expect to see huge gains for UKIP.

They'd only be allowed to nominate an elected leader... all the candidates for the leadership position are elected members of parliament

octatonic

Axe_meister said:

Well what we are likely to get is an EU light.
One red line the EU zone will not let us cross is the free movement of labour.
We will still have to adhere to any regulations on anything we export to the EU.
We may even have to pay some money towards the club.
I fear that we will end up with a worse deal and the things the leavers wanted to be thrown out will stay.

Yes, I agree.

This is essentially the Norwegian model.

The Norwegian government have even said that it isn't an ideal situation.

But here we are, so fuck it, let's get on with it.

octatonic

Myranda said:

octatonic said:

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

Bogwhoppit said:

octatonic said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Theres no way Id go as far as UKIP though...

I'm holding you to this.

I've spoken to the most rational level headed people about this. I was surprised, almost shocked to hear that the majority of them would indeed vote UKIP if the politicians started to back away from full on 'out out'.  I suppose desperate measures and all that.

Yes, this is my worry.

Westminster read the mood of the people wrong going into this farce, if they do it a second time they may find farage and co sitting in the same chamber.

I agree.

Which is why I think the General Election should be called as soon as the new Tory leader is selected.

If they limp along with an unelected leader and the leave process is as problematic as I suspect it will and then call a GE then I'd expect to see huge gains for UKIP.

They'd only be allowed to nominate an elected leader... all the candidates for the leadership position are elected members of parliament

Technically you are right but that isn't how it is perceived and isn't how it works in practice.

Look at what happened to Brown (and to a lesser degree, John Major).

When an MP assumes the party leadership during a parliament and becomes the PM they are viewed as not having a mandate and the infighting begins.

It also means they tend to lose the next GE.

The next Tory leader will be wise to call a GE as soon as they are selected as leader.

In this specific set of circumstances the Tories need to call a GE asap to stem the flow of people defecting to UKIP.

Myranda

Um...

So, now there is definitely no reason to delay enacting Article 50. Merkel has unilaterally ruled out any informal talks with Europe and the UK prior to Article 50... so if we cannot negotiate anything at all until we enact it... the only thing waiting is doing is furthering the damage to our economy.

Great. And Cameron has seperately confirmed he absolutely wont do it, and that he absolutely wont reconsider quitting... so we're on the naughty step till october 

chillidoggy

octatonic said:

crunchman said:

octatonic said:

crunchman said:

I'd still vote leave again.  Nothing fundamental has changed since Thursday.

In fact some of the establishment are owning up to the lies of Project Fear:

Merv King: 'I think that the Treasury is in a difficult position now because it made forecasts which were at least exaggerated'

From the Guardian's Brexit live thread (again):
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/27/brexit-live-george-osborne-economy-corbyn-shadow-cabinet

Well, the £ has completely crashed- it is down over 20c since Thursday.

I'm keeping an eye on it because if it drops to around a dollar then it will significantly change my life (for the better).

Firstly, you ought to check your figures.  It's not down over 20c.  According the BBC website it's currently down 17c on the peak just after the polls closed.  From what I can see it hasn't been below $1.32.

That's the short term reaction of speculators (and maybe overpaid city financiers throwing their toys out of the pram).  We won't even be leaving for another 2 years (if at all).

As I said above, the pound was always goint to fall short term on on a leave vote.  I'm more worried about what it will be in 10 years time.

Ok, you're right- it hasn't dropped over 20c, but I was pretty close- since just before voting closed it was $1.50 (well, 10 mins before voting closed, I'd hate to be inaccurate) and I was it at $1.316 earlier today, - it is $1.32 now.

It has dropped 18.4c from top to bottom.

I keep a very close eye on USD and Euro exchange rates for business reasons. The average dollar rate for the last 3-4 months has been around 1.45 to the GBP. So in fact, the drop has been closer to 10%. That is not to say it was a large drop in market terms, though.

The euro has been trading around 1.30 - 1.27 for ages, so the drop to 1.2 is again less than some think, although again, it's a sharp drop in market terms.