so ....... are we leaving or not????

octatonic

crunchman said:

I'd still vote leave again.  Nothing fundamental has changed since Thursday.

In fact some of the establishment are owning up to the lies of Project Fear:

Merv King: 'I think that the Treasury is in a difficult position now because it made forecasts which were at least exaggerated'

From the Guardian's Brexit live thread (again):
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/27/brexit-live-george-osborne-economy-corbyn-shadow-cabinet

Well, the £ has completely crashed- it is down over 20c since Thursday.

I'm keeping an eye on it because if it drops to around a dollar then it will significantly change my life (for the better).

ICBM

axisus said:

That's what I was thinking. To Take out BoJo and Gove like that was an incredible manoeuvre from a sinking ship that seemed to have no weapons. If only he could have been that shrewd as PM.

It reminds me of the ending of Alistair MacLean's book The Golden Rendezvous - which if you haven't read it, is completely different from the ending of the film version - much cleverer and more spectacular .

(Edited for spoiler removal - it's still probably quite a good read even now. White text below.)

It involves the baddies sailing off over the horizon with what they believe is the stolen gold, but is in fact the nuclear warhead which the hero has managed to exchange for it...

paulmapp8306

Personally, I think we are right to wait.  The referendum was to show what the public - as a whole - thought.  This now needs acting on ONCE the relevant groups have been formed, and the relevant people appointed, to negotiate the terms.  That was ALWAYS going to take time.  It will take longer now DC has resigned - but still.

To ignore the result now - would set British politics back 100 years, would see open rioting on the streets (doing far more damage economically that leaving the EU would), and show we as a country are indeed just puppets for EU to manipulate and ignore as they please.

hobbio

octatonic said:

hobbio said:

Drew_fx said:

It should never have been a public vote.

I voted the wrong way, I should've voted remain.

@Drew_fx

Agree 100% with the first point.

I'm beginning to agree with the second point, in as much as I don't know if I'd vote Leave again if there was a second referendum.

Are you both being genuine here?

Serious question- no piss taking from me.

I'm genuine in as much as I say I don't know if I'd vote Leave again. I'm not saying I wouldn't though. I'd rather stay in the EU and not break up the UK, for example, even though I'm 100% against closer integration. I love Scotland enough to put up with the EU.

There's a really strong chance that the public mood will have changed enough by the time we have a new PM to mean that they do not actually trigger Article 50.

It's such a confusing time right now.

crunchman

octatonic said:

crunchman said:

I'd still vote leave again.  Nothing fundamental has changed since Thursday.

In fact some of the establishment are owning up to the lies of Project Fear:

Merv King: 'I think that the Treasury is in a difficult position now because it made forecasts which were at least exaggerated'

From the Guardian's Brexit live thread (again):
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/27/brexit-live-george-osborne-economy-corbyn-shadow-cabinet

Well, the £ has completely crashed- it is down over 20c since Thursday.

I'm keeping an eye on it because if it drops to around a dollar then it will significantly change my life (for the better).

Firstly, you ought to check your figures.  It's not down over 20c.  According the BBC website it's currently down 17c on the peak just after the polls closed.  From what I can see it hasn't been below $1.32.

That's the short term reaction of speculators (and maybe overpaid city financiers throwing their toys out of the pram).  We won't even be leaving for another 2 years (if at all).

As I said above, the pound was always goint to fall short term on on a leave vote.  I'm more worried about what it will be in 10 years time.

paulmapp8306

I have to say - somewhere, and this seems as good a place as any, That the deciding factor me me voted out - was that when the PM when to the EU with the concerns of the UK - and asked for some reform - the EU basically stuck two fingers up and said "we dont care what your people think - its what we think that matters".  That was the deciding factor for me (there were many considerations - but it came out 50/50 in my eyes).

If the EU had given the appearance of caring about the UK population (even if they did nothing in the end) - Id have voted in.

Fretwired

Let's just wait and see what happens. We'll be OK. The markets are being manipulated by people making a fast buck. Come FRiday everything with be back to normal when they realise nothing will happen for two years.

slacker

I think we should call it Article 50/50

hugbot

Nothing happening for two years is the problem, 2 years of firms not knowing what the situation is going to be when everything lands and taking a side eye at starting any long term operations in the UK as consquence.

Sporky

paulmapp8306 said:

To ignore the result now - would set British politics back 100 years, would see open rioting on the streets (doing far more damage economically that leaving the EU would), and show we as a country are indeed just puppets for EU to manipulate and ignore as they please.

I don't see the consequences as being quite as disastrous as you do (that's a lot of "as" in one sentence). I don't think the result should be ignored either, but it is possible for us to remain in the EU without ignoring the result, assuming there was sufficient renegotiation that enough people felt the situation had improved sufficiently. Whether that'll happen is another matter.

hobbio said:

I'm genuine in as much as I say I don't know if I'd vote Leave again. I'm not saying I wouldn't though. I'd rather stay in the EU and not break up the UK, for example, even though I'm 100% against closer integration. 

I suspect a lot of people feel that way - it's not far from my position fer example. In but with reform would be my ideal outcome. I don't think the UK should join the Euro, and I doubt I ever will - that feels more like shackles than it does like unity/co-operation, and I'm not convinced it makes economic sense either.

I wonder if someone has cursed us to live in interesting times.

digitalscream

crunchman said:

Firstly, you ought to check your figures.  It's not down over 20c.  According the BBC website it's currently down 17c on the peak just after the polls closed.  From what I can see it hasn't been below $1.32.

I've had it running in the corner of my desktop all morning - it spend a good couple of hours below $1.32, actually.

quarky

I don't know which way I would vote again. The reasons I voted leave are still there and still valid. The EU is a shitstorm lurching from one self-created crisis to another, with stifles growth, and centralised decision away from the people which those decisions affect. And while the transfer of money from the richer areas to the poor sounds good, if EU policies actually make us all worse off overall, it isn't worth it. Large "countries" lead to terrible wars, and the EU has lead us by stealth into this shit situation where people are frustrated, but can't now do anything about it. They are cunts.

But the whole thing has just made so many people deeply unhappy with themselves and their lives, and that should never have been allowed to happen. They should all shoot themselves.

paulmapp8306

Sporky said:

paulmapp8306 said:

. I don't think the result should be ignored either, but it is possible for us to remain in the EU without ignoring the result, assuming there was sufficient renegotiation that enough people felt the situation had improved sufficiently. Whether that'll happen is another matter.

I agree with that.  The only way to satay in, is for the UK to go to the EU and basically say "This is what the people think - there split. If you want us to stay, you need to give more in the way of reform".  If they do - we can go to vote again with the new package, and I think we'd vote to stay.  Unfortunately, the EU leaders are as suborn as my wife - and wont do that on principle.  

Fretwired

hugbot said:

Nothing happening for two years is the problem, 2 years of firms not knowing what the situation is going to be when everything lands and taking a side eye at starting any long term operations in the UK as consquence.

Not sure - there will be access to the EU market even if there are low tariffs of 2.5% - not getting access just won't happen.

I will go into print here and now to say we will get tariff free access to the EU but will have to accept free movement and pay something. In the end we may end up with a deal that means we get on better with the EU  as just a trading partner. They can bugger off and create the Fourth Reich which will take them 50 years. I'll be dead by then.

The German car industry has come out and demanded the EU gives the UK free access. French farmers won't be far behind and Spanish fishermen etc. Junker's a twat.

Chalky

digitalscream;1128295" said:

crunchman said:



Firstly, you ought to check your figures.  It's not down over 20c.  According the BBC website it's currently down 17c on the peak just after the polls closed.  From what I can see it hasn't been below $1.32.










I've had it running in the corner of my desktop all morning - it spend a good couple of hours below $1.32, actually.

That still means that for everyone selling at $1.32 there is a buyer at the same price. Closed on Friday at $1.34 didn't it?

We are a country with a large trade deficit so textbook thinking would say a devalued £ is just what we need - makes our exports cheap and imports expensive so should pressure a reduction on the deficit.

chillidoggy

Fretwired said:

Let's just wait and see what happens. We'll be OK. The markets are being manipulated by people making a fast buck. Come FRiday everything with be back to normal when they realise nothing will happen for two years.

With you on that.

paulmapp8306

Fretwired said:

I will go into print here and now to say we will get tariff free access to the EU but will have to accept free movement and pay something. 

Thats the problem.  The one thing we cant do is accept free movement (both politically after the vote, and for the good of the country).  That is the biggest issue in many minds (not immigration - thats different - but free movement).

Id say we'd end up paying a lot for access (maybe more than now) and have a small tariff - but could keep our boarder control.

octatonic

crunchman said:

octatonic said:

crunchman said:

I'd still vote leave again.  Nothing fundamental has changed since Thursday.

In fact some of the establishment are owning up to the lies of Project Fear:

Merv King: 'I think that the Treasury is in a difficult position now because it made forecasts which were at least exaggerated'

From the Guardian's Brexit live thread (again):
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/27/brexit-live-george-osborne-economy-corbyn-shadow-cabinet

Well, the £ has completely crashed- it is down over 20c since Thursday.

I'm keeping an eye on it because if it drops to around a dollar then it will significantly change my life (for the better).

Firstly, you ought to check your figures.  It's not down over 20c.  According the BBC website it's currently down 17c on the peak just after the polls closed.  From what I can see it hasn't been below $1.32.

That's the short term reaction of speculators (and maybe overpaid city financiers throwing their toys out of the pram).  We won't even be leaving for another 2 years (if at all).

As I said above, the pound was always goint to fall short term on on a leave vote.  I'm more worried about what it will be in 10 years time.

Ok, you're right- it hasn't dropped over 20c, but I was pretty close- since just before voting closed it was $1.50 (well, 10 mins before voting closed, I'd hate to be inaccurate) and I was it at $1.316 earlier today, - it is $1.32 now.

It has dropped 18.4c from top to bottom.

Fretwired

paulmapp8306 said:

Fretwired said:

I will go into print here and now to say we will get tariff free access to the EU but will have to accept free movement and pay something. 

Thats the problem.  The one thing we cant do is accept free movement (both politically after the vote, and for the good of the country).  That is the biggest issue in many minds (not immigration - thats different - but free movement).

Id say we'd end up paying a lot for access (maybe more than now) and have a small tariff - but could keep our boarder control.

We'll have to accept free movement - there may be a cap, but I think it will be a show stopper. There are other countries, like Sweden and Netherlands which would consider a referendum. The main driver is migration. If they see the UK was forced to sign up to free movement they probably wouldn't bother having a referendum and the EU can prevent contagion.

Member states are calling for reform so if we have the balls to kick the can down the road we may find the free movement rules are modified making them more palatable to the electorate. Free movement works both ways.

paulmapp8306

Not sure we "have" to do anything.   Its just as much our call as Europe's.  The "no free movement" was the biggest single reason for most to vote leave - to agree to it to get the trade wouldnt go down well at all.

 I susspect if we said "name your price - but no free movement" then Europe would come up with an offer.