so ....... are we leaving or not????

capo4th

Maybe you were a little emotional and angry and ticked the box in frustration. It's ok I forgive you.

mellowsun

Chalky said:

6 months of diminishing uncertainty, tops. Money leads, everything else follows. Trade will be sorted quickly. Stumbling block will be Schengen agreement but by then the financial world will know that trade is sorted as regards max risks will be narrow.

I admire your optimism but I doubt it. You say 'Money leads', but right now, money is exiting the UK. Remember how things quickly unraveled when we briefly had a hung parliament for a few days? This is much worse.

tbm

quarky;1129077" said:

tbm said:

This thread is worth reading by all, but leave voters in particular.

https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362070576898048

Wait, was that border not there before the EU? Or have the EU invented time-travel?

Seems an odd thing to be glib about. You either don't care or don't understand what that person is talking about. Dunno which is worse.

quarky

From what I understand (and please tell me if I am wrong), that border was around before the EU, as was the movement agreement between the UK and the Ireland.

Are you assuming that the EU is going to demand a border there? Or that the UK is?

digitalscream

Well...there it is...

Even I didn't think that there would be a possibility of delaying Article 50 until 2020...

eSully

quarky said:

From what I understand (and please tell me if I am wrong), that border was around before the EU, as was the movement agreement between the UK and the Ireland.

Are you assuming that the EU is going to demand a border there? Or that the UK is?

If the UK does not have a free movement agreement with the EU then border controls may have to be reinstated as that is the only land border with the EU. That is the concern. However I think you're referring to the Common travel area agreement. I don't know a massive amount about it but hopefully this will stay in place.

kipple

crunchman said:

octatonic said:

crunchman said:

I'd still vote leave again.  Nothing fundamental has changed since Thursday.

In fact some of the establishment are owning up to the lies of Project Fear:

Merv King: 'I think that the Treasury is in a difficult position now because it made forecasts which were at least exaggerated'

From the Guardian's Brexit live thread (again):
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/27/brexit-live-george-osborne-economy-corbyn-shadow-cabinet

Well, the £ has completely crashed- it is down over 20c since Thursday.

I'm keeping an eye on it because if it drops to around a dollar then it will significantly change my life (for the better).

Firstly, you ought to check your figures.  It's not down over 20c.  According the BBC website it's currently down 17c on the peak just after the polls closed.  From what I can see it hasn't been below $1.32.

That's the short term reaction of speculators (and maybe overpaid city financiers throwing their toys out of the pram).  We won't even be leaving for another 2 years (if at all).

As I said above, the pound was always goint to fall short term on on a leave vote.  I'm more worried about what it will be in 10 years time.

I read this and I have NO idea where the BBC or the rags like the independant get there figures for the exchange rate from but it is complete and utter tosh and they are not telling the full picture... I just see this information as more deliberate scare tactics.

I have done approx £10 k in business payments £ GBP to $ USA since Last november 2015 up until 20th june 2016 and every payment I have made I got exchange rates that were between $1.34 - $1.44 and I have receipts to prove it. 

The exchange rate was acting like a yo yo dropping as low as $1.34  and back up to peaks of around $1.44 starting from LAST november 2015 right up until last week..

 

There have been VERY brief periods lasting no more than a day or two when the dollar peaked but the exchange rate has been dropping as low as $1.34 for a LONG time already.

The exchange rate based against its lowest point $1.34 from last november as an average has not moved more than about 1% - 2% 

digitalscream

@kipple - the rate you get as a consumer is not necessarily the base rate of exchange (it's always lower). Here's the performance of the base rate over the last two years:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y

It's not been below $1.38 in that whole time (except since last Friday), and that was in March.

Fretwired

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

digitalscream

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

I'm inclined to agree, but possibly with Hunt as Tory leader.

Hunt or May...jeez, talk about a shitty choice. Johnson's almost total outward anonymity would seem to rule him out, but given that this isn't a public election it's entirely likely that stuff will be going on that's not being played out in the media (particularly since all eyes seem to be on Labour, who are almost completely irrelevant to the proceedings at this point).

quarky

eSully said:

quarky said:

From what I understand (and please tell me if I am wrong), that border was around before the EU, as was the movement agreement between the UK and the Ireland.

Are you assuming that the EU is going to demand a border there? Or that the UK is?

If the UK does not have a free movement agreement with the EU then border controls may have to be reinstated as that is the only land border with the EU. That is the concern. However I think you're referring to the Common travel area agreement. I don't know a massive amount about it but hopefully this will stay in place.

Yeah, I think there are a lot of assumptions. Assuming no free movement, assuming the EU would force Ireland to end the CTA, etc. Either way, if the EU for an end to the CTA, the English will no doubt be blamed.

chillidoggy

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

No we didn't.

I told you May would be the preferred choice!

:P

Fretwired

chillidoggy said:

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

No we didn't.

I told you May would be the preferred choice!

:P

I think she's the sacrificial cow .. takes one for the country and retires to the country. I'll never vote for her if you paid me.

Fretwired

Interesting letter ...

SIR – In 1992, a slight majority of Swiss voters refused to join the European Economic Area (50.3 per cent to 49.7 per cent).

According to the pundits – and most national newspapers – the country was going to break up. (It was indeed divided between a French-speaking Europhile minority and a German speaking anti-European majority.) The economy was going to crash and the Swiss franc was to be worth less than the Zimbabwean dollar.

Calls for a second vote came, and companies warned they were ready to leave the country. Local authorities talked of individual cantons joining the EU. The government was warning of a massive haemorrhage of talent.

None of this happened. Instead, after a slight recession, the economy started to grow again. Nowadays, even if the country’s relationship with the EU is far from settled, almost no one seriously envisages joining the EU or the all-but-defunct EEA. As Britain goes through similar times, it is worth remembering this.

Nicholas Antenen
Geneva, Switzerland

kipple

digitalscream said:

@kipple - the rate you get as a consumer is not necessarily the base rate of exchange (it's always lower). Here's the performance of the base rate over the last two years:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y

It's not been below $1.38 in that whole time (except since last Friday), and that was in March.I understand that but I dont care if its base rate or consumer rates..its virtually the same now as last year it was this low last year  

I understand the difference but I dont care if base rate or consumer rate is quoted. As base rate changes so the consumer rate changes. consumer rate is a reflection of base rate.

There has not been a massive drop its just bullshit political scare mongering it was at a similar level last year.

The charts displayed on XE are not much more accurate than Wikipedia I know what I was being charged last year and its hardly ANY difference now. 

Bogwhoppit

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

Its something many have predicted, but it appears to be nearing confirmation. If this becomes reality, it will be the last time I'll vote.

For the remainers that want this referendum overturned, will you trust any future vote ?

paulmapp8306

quarky said:

tbm said:

This thread is worth reading by all, but leave voters in particular.

https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362070576898048

Wait, was that border not there before the EU? Or have the EU invented time-travel?

Its also untrue.  I think you'd find Gibralta has a land boarder with the EU as well.

scrumhalf

I don't see how we can't not leave.

Our standing within the EU would be shredded.

Chalky

kipple;1129491" said:

digitalscream said:

@kipple - the rate you get as a consumer is not necessarily the base rate of exchange (it's always lower). Here's the performance of the base rate over the last two years:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y



It's not been below $1.38 in that whole time (except since last Friday), and that was in March.I understand that but I dont care if its base rate or consumer rates..its virtually the same now as last year it was this low last year  I understand the difference but I dont care if base rate or consumer rate is quoted. As base rate changes so the consumer rate changes. consumer rate is a reflection of base rate.There has not been a massive drop its just bullshit political scare mongering it was at a similar level last year.

The charts displayed on XE are not much more accurate than Wikipedia I know what I was being charged last year and its hardly ANY difference now. 

The BBC has contorted its reports to paint the bleakest picture. Several times it has reported the maximum fall as the leadline only to say in the body text that its not as bad now. Its a bit like reporting "10 dead in pile-up", and then saying in the report text "well actually nobody died but we thought they had!" )

crunchman

Fretwired said:

Are we leaving? No.

May to be Tory leader > market volatility damaging the UK, EU decides to play serious hard ball, a tough summer so the public changes its mind. Parliament bites the bullet and May decides to remain in the EU in the Autumn.

You heard it here first.

If this happens there will be carnage for the Tories at the next election.  Ukip would probably take 30 or 40 seats from them.

I could see some kind of deal which almost the same as being in, but has a different name.  No politician would be stupid enough to directly backtrack on the result of the referendum.