so ....... are we leaving or not????

Chalky

Myranda;1128554" said:

Um...

So, now there is definitely no reason to delay enacting Article 50. Merkel has unilaterally ruled out any informal talks with Europe and the UK prior to Article 50... so if we cannot negotiate anything at all until we enact it... the only thing waiting is doing is furthering the damage to our economy.

Great. And Cameron has seperately confirmed he absolutely wont do it, and that he absolutely wont reconsider quitting... so we're on the naughty step till october 

Invoking Article50 will not calm the markets.

AliGorie

some think this may come to pass

Chalky

United Ireland? That would be nice but its purest fantasy.

paulmapp8306

octatonic said:

Axe_meister said:

Well what we are likely to get is an EU light.
One red line the EU zone will not let us cross is the free movement of labour.
We will still have to adhere to any regulations on anything we export to the EU.
We may even have to pay some money towards the club.
I fear that we will end up with a worse deal and the things the leavers wanted to be thrown out will stay.

Yes, I agree.

This is essentially the Norwegian model.

The Norwegian government have even said that it isn't an ideal situation.

But here we are, so fuck it, let's get on with it.

The only issue is I cant see this happening.  I cant see us crossing the "free movement " line either - and that will be the block.  I think everything else is negotiable form both sides - this isnt from either side, so what happens?  

ICBM

Myranda said:

So, now there is definitely no reason to delay enacting Article 50. Merkel has unilaterally ruled out any informal talks with Europe and the UK prior to Article 50... so if we cannot negotiate anything at all until we enact it... the only thing waiting is doing is furthering the damage to our economy.

Great. And Cameron has seperately confirmed he absolutely wont do it, and that he absolutely wont reconsider quitting... so we're on the naughty step till october 

There is every reason to delay. It gives time for calmer heads to work out what we're going to do, even with no informal talks. I also think Merkel wants this in part because it will sideline Juncker and the Eurocrats who want us out now.

Cameron won't do it because he's realised that he has left a booby trap for his successor which may prevent them ever doing it either.

Uncertainty is bad, but doing the wrong thing in haste is worse.

paulmapp8306

Myranda said:

Um...

So, now there is definitely no reason to delay enacting Article 50. Merkel has unilaterally ruled out any informal talks with Europe and the UK prior to Article 50... so if we cannot negotiate anything at all until we enact it... the only thing waiting is doing is furthering the damage to our economy.

Great. And Cameron has seperately confirmed he absolutely wont do it, and that he absolutely wont reconsider quitting... so we're on the naughty step till october 

The wait is the right thing to do.  Its not to allow "pre negotiations" its to make sure we have a clean idea of what we want to try and get - and to make sure the right people are in place to make those negotiations.  Putting those ideas and people together that will cause the delay - otherwise you waste negotiating time (the 2 years) putting your admin in order to start.

Ultimately the EU leaders have no say in this.  The clock starts when WE enact Article 50 - not when they tell use we should.  Until we do we havent given notice were even going to leave in fact.

Chalky

ICBM;1128584" said:

Myranda said:So, now there is definitely no reason to delay enacting Article 50. Merkel has unilaterally ruled out any informal talks with Europe and the UK prior to Article 50... so if we cannot negotiate anything at all until we enact it... the only thing waiting is doing is furthering the damage to our economy.

Great. And Cameron has seperately confirmed he absolutely wont do it, and that he absolutely wont reconsider quitting... so we're on the naughty step till october 

There is every reason to delay. It gives time for calmer heads to work out what we're going to do, even with no informal talks. I also think Merkel wants this in part because it will sideline Juncker and the Eurocrats who want us out now.

Cameron won't do it because he's realised that he has left a booby trap for his successor which may prevent them ever doing it either.

Uncertainty is bad, but doing the wrong thing in haste is worse.

Wisdom. Plus by delaying until October then Hollande and Merkel both come up for re-election within the 2 year Article50 limit. That means they both have to enter their election campaigns with a clear statement of their intended relationship with the UK. More pressure on them to do a deal.

Myranda

Chalky said:

Myranda;1128554" said:

Um...

So, now there is definitely no reason to delay enacting Article 50. Merkel has unilaterally ruled out any informal talks with Europe and the UK prior to Article 50... so if we cannot negotiate anything at all until we enact it... the only thing waiting is doing is furthering the damage to our economy.

Great. And Cameron has seperately confirmed he absolutely wont do it, and that he absolutely wont reconsider quitting... so we're on the naughty step till october 

Invoking Article50 will not calm the markets.

But 2 years of uncertainty is not 2 years and 4 months of uncertainty 

quarky

Incredible isn't it. The EU, will basically impose tarrifs and penalties if you want to trade with their members but don't follow their rules, while the rest of the world is trying to move towards responsible free-trade.

Chalky

But a new mandated PM with a supportive cabinet entering negotiations with calm story of what they are trying to achieve can be in place by October/November and that will steer the markets much better.

octatonic

paulmapp8306 said:

octatonic said:

Axe_meister said:

Well what we are likely to get is an EU light.
One red line the EU zone will not let us cross is the free movement of labour.
We will still have to adhere to any regulations on anything we export to the EU.
We may even have to pay some money towards the club.
I fear that we will end up with a worse deal and the things the leavers wanted to be thrown out will stay.

Yes, I agree.

This is essentially the Norwegian model.

The Norwegian government have even said that it isn't an ideal situation.

But here we are, so fuck it, let's get on with it.

The only issue is I cant see this happening.  I cant see us crossing the "free movement " line either - and that will be the block.  I think everything else is negotiable form both sides - this isnt from either side, so what happens?  

http://i3.cpcache.com/product/1023776226/fuck_nose_license_plate_frame.jpg

octatonic

Myranda said:

Chalky said:

Myranda;1128554" said:

Um...

So, now there is definitely no reason to delay enacting Article 50. Merkel has unilaterally ruled out any informal talks with Europe and the UK prior to Article 50... so if we cannot negotiate anything at all until we enact it... the only thing waiting is doing is furthering the damage to our economy.

Great. And Cameron has seperately confirmed he absolutely wont do it, and that he absolutely wont reconsider quitting... so we're on the naughty step till october 

Invoking Article50 will not calm the markets.

But 2 years of uncertainty is not 2 years and 4 months of uncertainty 

2 years minimum of uncertainty.

We won't be out for 2 years after A50 but how long before we have trade deals in place, regulation sorted?

No idea.

Things don't immediately bounce back once we leave- it could be a decade or more before things get back to where they were last week.

Chalky

6 months of diminishing uncertainty, tops. Money leads, everything else follows. Trade will be sorted quickly. Stumbling block will be Schengen agreement but by then the financial world will know that trade is sorted as regards max risks will be narrow.

octatonic

Can't see why Schengen will be an issue given we aren't in it.

Chalky

Free movement of workers then

octatonic

Chalky said:

Free movement of workers then

Yeah, that is the most significant issue, because if the EU allows Britain to change it when why not Greece, or Austria, or Spain?

It will be interesting to see what happens.

tbm

This thread is worth reading by all, but leave voters in particular.

https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362070576898048

octatonic

tbm said:

This thread is worth reading by all, but leave voters in particular.

https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362070576898048

Christ, why can't he link to a website instead of doing it in multiples of 130 characters until I want to kill myself?

quarky

tbm said:

This thread is worth reading by all, but leave voters in particular.

https://twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362070576898048

Wait, was that border not there before the EU? Or have the EU invented time-travel?

Drew_TNBD

axisus said:

Drew_fx said:

Sporky said:

Drew_fx said:

It should never have been a public vote.

I voted the wrong way, I should've voted remain.

May I ask why on the latter?

Let me put it this way... I'm not at my best right now. My mental health is pretty poor and I made a kneejerk decision the morning of the vote based on frustrations and stresses I've got in my life.

I've always been pro immigration for fucksake! My wife is an immigrant, my child will be half Japanese, my best friends are all from EU countries, and the people that have treated me the worst in my life have always been white anglo saxon protestant little Englander wankers!

Wtf is wrong with me!?!

I've always been pro unity too. It's only been in the last few years as I've been more exposed to fuckwits on the internet, and then other fuckwits denouncing and fighting those first fuckwits, and it started to seep into my cognitive functioning... fucksake!

My whole decision was made out of ill informed spite and idiocy. Now I just want the ground to swallow me up.

I wouldn't beat yourself up, your one vote didn't swing the result. The campaigns were both utterly dumb, and that fool Cameron set up the result with his incompetence. A great many people seem to have voted largely in protest at this govt. 

I agree, but usually I am smarter than this. I feel like a proper cunt.