Are vintage guitars now just kudos/investment

Wazmeister

ourmaninthenorth said:

My interest in vintage guitars is an inverse proportion. 

Far too much piss in the well....

Most likely quote of the year. Brilliantly put

bodhi

What I find particularly appalling is the legacy of misinformation some vintage dealers appear to be happy to leave behind, whether by omission or plain deceit.  These instruments will be around long after we're all gone.  If you're lucky enough to be the temporary custodian of a vintage instrument, the least you can do is to preserve and pass on its story.

Skipped

fandango said:

New versus vintage. Two very different markets.

If you've got a grand for a new guitar, you ain't looking for vintage.

If you're a collector, then new isn't going to float your boat. Vintage is about the story, hence this kind of interest.

Would I be right or wrong if I said "Never the twain shall meet"?

I think that would probably be wrong.
guitars4u has already mentioned that some collectable guitars urgently need  essential maintenance that will not be forthcoming because the guitar is Collectable and therefore "cannot" have the refret it needs.
That makes the guitar almost pointless.

At least 2 other posters on this thread are strong advocates of player grade vintage guitars. Including the ultimate example of a player grade vintage guitar.....a Conversion.
What would a 58-60 Gibson Les Paul be worth if it was just a guitar?......in other words if all Collectibility could be  removed from the equation.
I think the answer is..... around $18k to $20k (street price) which is probably the going rate for a Conversion.
That feels about right to me.
Based on my experiences I think most players would swop 3 x R9s for a great playing 50s Les Paul.

And that brings me to Kudos.
Kudos?
How can Kudos be involved when a guy reaches into his back pocket to buy a vintage guitar which has just had all Collectable value deliberately removed?

52/53 Gibson Les Paul: Value is $15k of which $12k is probably the "collectable" element.

50's Les Paul Conversion. Value is $18k (street price). The collectable element of the price is Zero. Nothing. The collectability of the guitar was totally destroyed moments after the Conversion started. The guitar is only worth what the buyer perceives the musical instrument to be worth.....and the buyer is (by definition) a player not a collector. The guitar can only be sold if the buyer perceives that the musical  instrument is R9 Historic x 3.

IMO.....Not about Kudos. Not about "flame" (buy a Tokai instead), not about Bragging Rights. It is simply about the guitar in your hands. Many USA owned  Conversions are top class working guitars that are actually played and gigged  by 'Burst owners.

fretfinder

Personally I think most conversions into ‘bursts’ from pre-58 Les Pauls are very expensive and not particularly appealing. I don’t think I’ve seen one that doesn’t have an off-centre top join and a very uneven and/or odd flame pattern, and to me they don’t look like a real burst at all. In my humble opinion they are not worth three R9s and certainly not six R9s, given that there are a fair few R9s about for £3k. If those ‘burst’ conversions had been made back into the Goldtops that they once were, with an authentic aged gold finish, and a more reasonable price, they’d be much more desirable to me. But I guess then they wouldn't fetch as much money as they do as fake bursts...

impmann

I wouldn’t buy a guitar because it’s old. I’d only buy a guitar that moves me.
My Old Tele was once worth quite a lot of cash - then I broke the neck, threw the dreadful original pickups in the bin and changed the pots for ones that didn’t cut out. It’s a much better *guitar* now and although some of it is ‘vintage’ I wouldn’t think twice about gigging it.

Frankly, a guitar sat in a glass case (or it’s original one sat in a warehouse/vault) accumulating value is just a painted plank. And a bit pointless.

Bridgehouse

impmann said:

I wouldn’t buy a guitar because it’s old. I’d only buy a guitar that moves me.
My Old Tele was once worth quite a lot of cash - then I broke the neck, threw the dreadful original pickups in the bin and changed the pots for ones that didn’t cut out. It’s a much better *guitar* now and although some of it is ‘vintage’ I wouldn’t think twice about gigging it.

Frankly, a guitar sat in a glass case (or it’s original one sat in a warehouse/vault) accumulating value is just a painted plank. And a bit pointless.

You need to offload that old vintage Shergold to a working bass player so it doesn't just languish in it's crappy old case  

ToneControl

Really old acoustics are only useful as museum pieces, since they are essentially falling apart, and unlike violins, no one is playing 100+ year old guitars for their preferred tone
Electrics aren't old enough for that, and it will take them longer to deteriorate, but they will eventually.

In the meantime, it's supply and demand - really
1940s lap steels are very cheap compared to 1950s and 1960s electrics
As soon as fewer (alive) people affiliate with that era, and old collections are sold off when people pop their clogs, then I'd expect prices to drop rapidly, other than for exceptionally playable or rare guitars

meltedbuzzbox

Bridgehouse said:

impmann said:

I wouldn’t buy a guitar because it’s old. I’d only buy a guitar that moves me.
My Old Tele was once worth quite a lot of cash - then I broke the neck, threw the dreadful original pickups in the bin and changed the pots for ones that didn’t cut out. It’s a much better *guitar* now and although some of it is ‘vintage’ I wouldn’t think twice about gigging it.

Frankly, a guitar sat in a glass case (or it’s original one sat in a warehouse/vault) accumulating value is just a painted plank. And a bit pointless.

You need to offload that old vintage Shergold to a working bass player so it doesn't just languish in it's crappy old case  

To be fair it's on a wall hanger.
Not sure how much it gets played though

streethawk

ToneControl said:

Really old acoustics are only useful as museum pieces, since they are essentially falling apart, and unlike violins, no one is playing 100+ year old guitars for their preferred tone
Electrics aren't old enough for that, and it will take them longer to deteriorate, but they will eventually.

In the meantime, it's supply and demand - really
1940s lap steels are very cheap compared to 1950s and 1960s electrics
As soon as fewer (alive) people affiliate with that era, and old collections are sold off when people pop their clogs, then I'd expect prices to drop rapidly, other than for exceptionally playable or rare guitars

I suppose pre war Martins would comprise the '100 yr+ old guitars' sector, and they're commanding high prices. Let's see how those prices hold up into the 2030's. The availability of Brazilian rosewood will surely factor into things, adding a precious woods aspect. 

The branding of 20th century instruments is another interesting angle to consider; orchestral instruments tend to be quite generic looking, guitars are anything but. A sonic blue Strat is always going to look striking, just like the vintage motors of the same era (and hues, given they used the same paint). The same can't be said for 100+ year violins or pianos. So that's something new.

Emerging economic superpowers could help dictate future prices. We don't know in which direction Eastern popular culture might be heading, e.g. vintage jazz boxes already command high prices, despite the jazz scene being of fringe appeal nowadays; but imagine a big jazz scene emerging out of Shanghai in 20 yrs time? (ok me neither). Japan westernised many years ago, the Chinese are relatively new to the game. 

One thing's for sure, we're all using old models to predict a new world. The whole 'hipster' movement seems to be a reaction to 21st century media and technological advancements; with their 19th century facial hair and archaic bicycles. Okay they wouldn't be seen dead with a battered guitar costing more than a fiver from the flea market, but you take my point.

I haven't the foggiest where vintage guitar pricing is going. By the time I find out, I'll be in a home, on a space station with a giant curly moustache and tight jeans.

peteri

Interesting thread and opinions.

Disclosure, I have 5 guitars which could be called vintage - 56 Les Paul Special (refin'd), 62 DC Special, 66 Strat, 68 Tele, 72 Les Paul Custom.

I'm 48, born in 1969.

Most of my guitars are more player grade - the Tele and DC Special are near mint, but the others have all had work, basically some degree of paint.

These have all been bought over the last two years, prior to then I'd not played any form of vintage instrument.

All these guitars have cost me under £5k each, that's still a chunk of change - but I think squarely in the CS camp.

The reason I love them, is because of how they play and sound - I've played a lot of CS strats and almost all (I played one exception at Coda), don't have the neck or the sound of my 66. Maybe I'm lucky and I got a good one, but that's a fact. Similarly my 56 Special has a typical thick neck,but even my small childlilke sized hands can play it easily - whereas the modern Gibson Rx necks are just too thick for me.

I believe at the player grade price point that JumpingatShadows describes the market is solid and safe. All my guitars have made a small but respectable profit. So represent a better 'investment' for me than a new CS. (BTW mine is the yellow Special he put a picture of, and it's just wonderful - soon to be refretted by Feline).

There are different flavours of vintage market, the 59 Les Paul, 62 Strat market is stratospheric and likely hyped at the moment, but the player grade end (my end) - I think represents real value for money relative to the high end stuff being turned out by Gibson and Fender.

To be clear, the first vintage I played was a 59 Les Paul Jr at a dealer, the neck was thick and wonderful - but the guitar wasn't, of course there are good and bad of every era (my modern Feline is comfortably of the same quality as my vintage stuff for example), but the neck profiles and resonance of the wood is different in my opinion - and worth paying for at the price point I've described.

I haven't bought a single one of these guitars based on a 'hero' etc. I've bought them on being a nice thing to play and own.

What is definitely true is the market has more than it's share of dubious characters and I include even the likes of Norm Harris in that, but that doesn't take away from the fact that these are wonderful instruments that are a joy to play.

If you fast forward 20 years, I suspect the market will have changed a lot at the higher end - lots of people invest in guitars as pure investment vehicles (they aren't players), I suspect they'll move on to another sort of investment and that high end market will stagnate or soften.

But, whilst you can pay the prices you can pay for a CS Gibson or Fender, the player end of the vintage market will be a strong alternative.

I can't see this changing anytime soon, the supply of wood alone will ensure that - and at the player end a refret/refin is a good thing - since it shows the guitar was good enough to need it

Just my opinion!

impmann

meltedbuzzbox said:

Bridgehouse said:

impmann said:

I wouldn’t buy a guitar because it’s old. I’d only buy a guitar that moves me.
My Old Tele was once worth quite a lot of cash - then I broke the neck, threw the dreadful original pickups in the bin and changed the pots for ones that didn’t cut out. It’s a much better *guitar* now and although some of it is ‘vintage’ I wouldn’t think twice about gigging it.

Frankly, a guitar sat in a glass case (or it’s original one sat in a warehouse/vault) accumulating value is just a painted plank. And a bit pointless.

You need to offload that old vintage Shergold to a working bass player so it doesn't just languish in it's crappy old case  

To be fair it's on a wall hanger.
Not sure how much it gets played though

Which one?

The black bass went to the Jam... I had to make sure Mark hadn't squirreled it away in his car at the end of the day! ;-)
The 12 string is currently with another friend who's recording some Xmas jingles for someone or other - he works in the advertising industry creating musak (his words).

ourmaninthenorth

@peteri  & @Skipped ;

Comments worth the price of admission on their own.

Thanks Gents.

Bridgehouse

impmann said:

meltedbuzzbox said:

Bridgehouse said:

impmann said:

I wouldn’t buy a guitar because it’s old. I’d only buy a guitar that moves me.
My Old Tele was once worth quite a lot of cash - then I broke the neck, threw the dreadful original pickups in the bin and changed the pots for ones that didn’t cut out. It’s a much better *guitar* now and although some of it is ‘vintage’ I wouldn’t think twice about gigging it.

Frankly, a guitar sat in a glass case (or it’s original one sat in a warehouse/vault) accumulating value is just a painted plank. And a bit pointless.

You need to offload that old vintage Shergold to a working bass player so it doesn't just languish in it's crappy old case  

To be fair it's on a wall hanger.
Not sure how much it gets played though

Which one?

The black bass went to the Jam... I had to make sure Mark hadn't squirreled it away in his car at the end of the day! ;-)
The 12 string is currently with another friend who's recording some Xmas jingles for someone or other - he works in the advertising industry creating musak (his words).

I need to work on my squirrelling skills. That Shergold was as good as any US Precision you can get today.

peteri

ourmaninthenorth said:

@peteri  & @Skipped ;

Comments worth the price of admission on their own.

Thanks Gents.

Thank you! Love this topic

peteri

To add another comment -

I had a very long and interesting (aren't they always?) chat with Jon at Feline last week about refrets.

I have two guitars getting close to needing them, one is an untouched 68 Tele - so not to be done lightly, from the collector point of view.

But this guitar, and many of the age are getting to the point where the guitar market needs to get over itself. I fully understand the need to see untouched solder, but it's unrealistic to expect the pot on a guitar wired 50 years ago to still function, it is a moving part with friction involved it will wear out.

Therefore within my lifetime, it will become really unlikely to find a guitar from the 50s-60s with all the pots working. Even my 72 has had one pot replaced.

So dating becomes harder.

Similarly with re-frets, if any guitar from the 50-60s is still on original frets and isn't getting close to fretless - it's likely not a very good guitar, as it wasn't played much. Of course you'll always get the great guitars kept under a bed - but that's a small percentage.

Therefore now/very soon - most guitars will become 'player grade' by some definition - even JoBo refrets his. So what? These are musical instruments, damn fine ones, meant to be played and enjoyed. It doesn't detract from the instrument at all if done well, and in many cases enhances it.

Similarly there will come a point when you need to put a new rosewood board on a strat (my 66 is more than a bit thin in places), that will be harder, but inevitable.

These vintage guitars are popular/modern history icons. Just as you wouldn't run a vintage car on 1960's oil, brakes, filters and tyres - some people need to breathe a little and accept the same.

The only people who really care about this level of 'originality' are dealers, who are either driving down the price if you're selling ('what you're changing the strings'?) or driving the price up if you're buying ('as it left the shop in the 60's' - really wound third then?).

These dealers will impact the thought process of the non-playing investors, everyone else realises (or will realise) - they're talking bollocks.

guitars4you

peteri said:

To add another comment -

I had a very long and interesting (aren't they always?) chat with Jon at Feline last week about refrets.

I have two guitars getting close to needing them, one is an untouched 68 Tele - so not to be done lightly, from the collector point of view.

But this guitar, and many of the age are getting to the point where the guitar market needs to get over itself. I fully understand the need to see untouched solder, but it's unrealistic to expect the pot on a guitar wired 50 years ago to still function, it is a moving part with friction involved it will wear out.

Therefore within my lifetime, it will become really unlikely to find a guitar from the 50s-60s with all the pots working. Even my 72 has had one pot replaced.

So dating becomes harder.

Similarly with re-frets, if any guitar from the 50-60s is still on original frets and isn't getting close to fretless - it's likely not a very good guitar, as it wasn't played much. Of course you'll always get the great guitars kept under a bed - but that's a small percentage.

Therefore now/very soon - most guitars will become 'player grade' by some definition - even JoBo refrets his. So what? These are musical instruments, damn fine ones, meant to be played and enjoyed. It doesn't detract from the instrument at all if done well, and in many cases enhances it.

Similarly there will come a point when you need to put a new rosewood board on a strat (my 66 is more than a bit thin in places), that will be harder, but inevitable.

These vintage guitars are popular/modern history icons. Just as you wouldn't run a vintage car on 1960's oil, brakes, filters and tyres - some people need to breathe a little and accept the same.

The only people who really care about this level of 'originality' are dealers, who are either driving down the price if you're selling ('what you're changing the strings'?) or driving the price up if you're buying ('as it left the shop in the 60's' - really wound third then?).

These dealers will impact the thought process of the non-playing investors, everyone else realises (or will realise) - they're talking bollocks.

valid comments through out and I agree about 'replacements part if required - Not a single Strad is still original - new bridge - no tailpiece in most instances and most, maybe all have been converted from a baroque sale length to a modern orchestral scale length with a reinforced neck join to compensate such change - This equivalent of turning all 12 fret pre-war Martins into a 14 fret model - so major work

However I do disagree about it is the dealer who drives the 'all original tag' status plus all the associated bull and dreams that go with it - Certainly today with regard to internet sales and info available via the web - A large portion of such guitars are now in fact sold outside of such dealers - As a dealer myself I've always believed it is the customer who drives, talks and requests such info - maybe we are both guilty but it is certainly not one way - I've heard to many times over the years of a customer who won't look t an old guitar if it has received any form of change - And I tend to believe in change as required if it enhances the guitars performance - but price is reflected accordingly

I 100% disagree with anyone that thinks a good refret should have any impact on the price of an old guitar

TheBigDipper

I've been enjoying this thread. Thanks, all. To add a personal story (which I may have alluded to in another post some time ago).

I had a huge hankering for the sounds of Fender Wide Range pickups and the budget for a genuine mid-70s Tele Deluxe. So I went shopping. There weren't many about (this was 2015) thanks to Thom Yorke and Graham Coxon, I suspect! 

At one shop, in the Chelsea area, I played 2 x Deluxes and 1 x Thinline. The Thinline (£2,750) badly needed new strings and was almost unplayable because of them. One Deluxe ((£2,800) was nice to look at but didn't play very well, or sound that great, and I don't have the skills to judge if it was fixable or not. The other Deluxe (£2,950) was not original - the neck was clearly newer than the rest of the guitar. I've got a '73 maple-necked Strat and this was a very white neck compared to the one I owned, plus very little obvious wear on the frets or the fingerboard itself. Played great and sounded great, though. I liked it, but didn't think it was worth the money with my concerns about the provenance of the neck. 

First of all, the shop wouldn't put new strings onto the Thinline. They said "collectors" wouldn't like it. Then, I questioned the provenance of the neck on the Deluxe I liked and was told the person who sold it to them came over from the USA with guitars all the time and knew what they were doing.

So, on the basis that I liked it and would be OK with the price if the neck was also a '72 neck, I said I would buy it and pay for it right now - if we could then pop the neck off once I owned it and check it didn't have anything that showed it was not original - and if it did, that they would refund my money or we could renegotiate the price based on what we'd learned. 

They weren't willing to do that. That's fine - it's their guitar and their decision. I was merely explaining to them why I was concerned and what I felt would help me overcome that concern. So I left the shop - firmly convinced (without any proof) that they knew damn well the neck was not original and were going to wait for someone else to pop in who would buy it without being as fussy as me.

I ended up buying a MIM Tele FSR for £650 and putting Creamery WR pickups and a Mojotone wiring loom into it. Plays great, sounds great (after the changes - originally it sounded dull and dark) and I'm happy. 

I guess that's why I don't chase vintage guitars any more. 

peteri

guitars4you said:

peteri said:

To add another comment -

I had a very long and interesting (aren't they always?) chat with Jon at Feline last week about refrets.

I have two guitars getting close to needing them, one is an untouched 68 Tele - so not to be done lightly, from the collector point of view.

But this guitar, and many of the age are getting to the point where the guitar market needs to get over itself. I fully understand the need to see untouched solder, but it's unrealistic to expect the pot on a guitar wired 50 years ago to still function, it is a moving part with friction involved it will wear out.

Therefore within my lifetime, it will become really unlikely to find a guitar from the 50s-60s with all the pots working. Even my 72 has had one pot replaced.

So dating becomes harder.

Similarly with re-frets, if any guitar from the 50-60s is still on original frets and isn't getting close to fretless - it's likely not a very good guitar, as it wasn't played much. Of course you'll always get the great guitars kept under a bed - but that's a small percentage.

Therefore now/very soon - most guitars will become 'player grade' by some definition - even JoBo refrets his. So what? These are musical instruments, damn fine ones, meant to be played and enjoyed. It doesn't detract from the instrument at all if done well, and in many cases enhances it.

Similarly there will come a point when you need to put a new rosewood board on a strat (my 66 is more than a bit thin in places), that will be harder, but inevitable.

These vintage guitars are popular/modern history icons. Just as you wouldn't run a vintage car on 1960's oil, brakes, filters and tyres - some people need to breathe a little and accept the same.

The only people who really care about this level of 'originality' are dealers, who are either driving down the price if you're selling ('what you're changing the strings'?) or driving the price up if you're buying ('as it left the shop in the 60's' - really wound third then?).

These dealers will impact the thought process of the non-playing investors, everyone else realises (or will realise) - they're talking bollocks.

valid comments through out and I agree about 'replacements part if required - Not a single Strad is still original - new bridge - no tailpiece in most instances and most, maybe all have been converted from a baroque sale length to a modern orchestral scale length with a reinforced neck join to compensate such change - This equivalent of turning all 12 fret pre-war Martins into a 14 fret model - so major work

However I do disagree about it is the dealer who drives the 'all original tag' status plus all the associated bull and dreams that go with it - Certainly today with regard to internet sales and info available via the web - A large portion of such guitars are now in fact sold outside of such dealers - As a dealer myself I've always believed it is the customer who drives, talks and requests such info - maybe we are both guilty but it is certainly not one way - I've heard to many times over the years of a customer who won't look t an old guitar if it has received any form of change - And I tend to believe in change as required if it enhances the guitars performance - but price is reflected accordingly

I 100% disagree with anyone that thinks a good refret should have any impact on the price of an old guitar

No slight on any dealer on here intended, and you're likely right.

On the refret issue, I agree - but funnily enough, a very respected UK dealer - this year came up with the line 'a refret ruins a guitar and there's no good reason ever to refret one'.

That was in response to me pointing out the guitar I was demo-ing needed a refret!

peteri

TheBigDipper said:

I've been enjoying this thread. Thanks, all. To add a personal story (which I may have alluded to in another post some time ago).

I had a huge hankering for the sounds of Fender Wide Range pickups and the budget for a genuine mid-70s Tele Deluxe. So I went shopping. There weren't many about (this was 2015) thanks to Thom Yorke and Graham Coxon, I suspect! 

At one shop, in the Chelsea area, I played 2 x Deluxes and 1 x Thinline. The Thinline (£2,750) badly needed new strings and was almost unplayable because of them. One Deluxe ((£2,800) was nice to look at but didn't play very well, or sound that great, and I don't have the skills to judge if it was fixable or not. The other Deluxe (£2,950) was not original - the neck was clearly newer than the rest of the guitar. I've got a '73 maple-necked Strat and this was a very white neck compared to the one I owned, plus very little obvious wear on the frets or the fingerboard itself. Played great and sounded great, though. I liked it, but didn't think it was worth the money with my concerns about the provenance of the neck. 

First of all, the shop wouldn't put new strings onto the Thinline. They said "collectors" wouldn't like it. Then, I questioned the provenance of the neck on the Deluxe I liked and was told the person who sold it to them came over from the USA with guitars all the time and knew what they were doing.

So, on the basis that I liked it and would be OK with the price if the neck was also a '72 neck, I said I would buy it and pay for it right now - if we could then pop the neck off once I owned it and check it didn't have anything that showed it was not original - and if it did, that they would refund my money or we could renegotiate the price based on what we'd learned. 

They weren't willing to do that. That's fine - it's their guitar and their decision. I was merely explaining to them why I was concerned and what I felt would help me overcome that concern. So I left the shop - firmly convinced (without any proof) that they knew damn well the neck was not original and were going to wait for someone else to pop in who would buy it without being as fussy as me.

I ended up buying a MIM Tele FSR for £650 and putting Creamery WR pickups and a Mojotone wiring loom into it. Plays great, sounds great (after the changes - originally it sounded dull and dark) and I'm happy. 

I guess that's why I don't chase vintage guitars any more. 

Think we all have similar tales.

I bought my Strat from a respected London dealer, I'm happy with it - it's an amazing guitar and because of a refin and some headstock damage I got it for a price which really meant I couldn't go wrong.

Same dealer was recently advertising an 'all original' jr or special (forget which) - which was a blatant refin, just no way a guitar would have worn as they were claiming unless someone played with a sheet of sandpaper strapped to their forearm, it was so crude.

I think the reality is, especially in the UK - stock is almost impossible to get now. A few years ago with the dollar at $1.80/£1, and without CITES there were plenty of dealers going to the US, picking up some decent stock and selling it on - it was a model that worked well.

Now the pound has tanked and CITES, along with increased interest in Vintage prices in the US too means that the guitars just aren't easy to get out of America and there's enough internal demand there's no need to try.

And we're left with a lot of dregs, try and find a SG Standard from the 60s for sale in the UK right now

guitars4you

peteri said:

No slight on any dealer on here intended, and you're likely right.

On the refret issue, I agree - but funnily enough, a very respected UK dealer - this year came up with the line 'a refret ruins a guitar and there's no good reason ever to refret one'.

That was in response to me pointing out the guitar I was demo-ing needed a refret!

crazy that about a refret and I've seen/heard to often - if it don't play then its pointless and similar comments with @TheBigDipper above - crazy thought pattern by the dealer - it annoys me when guitars are now in a presentable marketable condition allowing you the customer to appraise them - I take on board that some might like 9,s or 10's or a fine tune to the set up - but dirty strings etc and badly set up is not likely to offer the customer the chance to evaluate it