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If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
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Comments
May not even go ahead if you believe this article
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-loophole-eu-referendum-mps-law-legal-legislation-constitution-a7105181.html
Why do we have to do something right away? There is no way something this important should be rushed. It's been a few days since the result came in, and politicians can't even organise a lunch run without forming 5 committees on the bread choices and a further 7 sub-committees on the effects of pickle vs mayo.
This needs to be done right, not quick.
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Ironically, Brexit might actually trigger some changes for the better in the EU but if we had voted to remain then it would have been business as usual.
Papers like the Guardian and Independent are ridiculous at the moment. Normally I read their websites to give a counter view to the Torygraph. Now I've completely given up reading the euro-drivel they spout.
If any government goes back on the referendum result then there will be riots in the street. Much more likely is what Boris seems to be angling for with a deal that gives us some kind of associate membership (although maybe not by that name) - which is what a lot of people would have wanted all along.
The people who will actually conduct the negotiations are the people in the Tory party who are in power after Cameron steps down. They will want a couple of months to set out the details of what they want in the exit negotiations. I would imagine that they will try to have some off the record conversations with other EU countries to gauge what the responses will likely be.
From that point of view, waiting two or three months to invoke article 50 would make sense.
From a British point of view waiting will also bring the Dutch elections a bit closer. If the Dutch elections happen before the process, or early on in the process, and Geert Wilders wins (he's ahead in the polls) then the Dutch will be having a referendum and we might have an ally, and a better bargaining position.
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!