I'm a big fan of vintage guitars, specficlly early 60's strats I've played some lovely guitars that look, sound and feel great, I've also played a few duds too, not all where as great as the legend suggests.
I'm a big fan of the early 60's 335's Gibson did, again, played a load of great ones and a few "meh" ones
Love other vintage guitars especially Les Paul Jnr's but it's the 60's strats that personally excite me.
That said, at the time of writing (as I'm sure history will look back on this thread and Fender will have hit Gibson price/quality control) I'd now rather buy a custom shop strat in the colour/spec I want with that 60's vibe for a sniff of the price, the key things obviously being the price and getting basic things like the colour I want without having to spend 10 years looking for "the one" but the real key is I've never played a bad custom shop strat, (sure specs I don't like) but never a "dud".
With this in mind is there really any need for the desire for the vintage guitar beyond the current investment (who says the market won't fall out if everyone reaches this moment of clarity) or the bragging rights ?
I'd still buy a vintage strat if I found "the one" or the collection of "the ones" but it's much easier and pretty much a promise that if I order a custom shop strat it won't be a bad one.
If Gibson had the same promise or reputation on QC would there really be a market for 59 Les Pauls, 50/60's strats etc beyond the bragging rights ?
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I suspect there will continue to be a vintage market, though. Some people find vintage guitars appealing - even if the guitar is not as good (whatever that means) as something newer, just because it's vintage. They'll pay more for that and who am I to say they shouldn't? The joy of ownership is a wonderful thing and the supply of vintage guitars will get worse, not better.
Oh, and I've never played a '59 Les Paul, but I do own a 2009 '59 VOS. That was expensive enough...
Then again we may have another adjustment when all the original plastic parts have gone to dust and "originality" ceases to be a target, and actually becomes something stopping those once-great guitars from being playable. I think we're almost there in a lot of cases. With any luck at that point the market will start caring solely about how good a musical instrument each old guitar is, and stop caring whether the screw holding the pickguard onto its '58 Les Paul is the original one put there in 1958.
The market is now: men in their 40s to 70s who grew up with guitar hero's who can now afford to buy the things their Hero's played.
In 30 years time - if no new guitar heros emerge - there will be a glut of vintage guitars when we all die off and leave them behind.
The thing that baffles me, is that those vintage guitars used in the 60s and 70s weren't that old at the time, if I wanted to be true to Page surely I'd go and buy a 2009 Les Paul, his was only ten years old to him after all...
The question of whether such a guitar is ‘better’ than a new(ish) one is highly subjective - but my experience is that ‘most’ pre-‘65 Strats are great - later ones are very variable. My ‘64 335 is definitely better than any Historic I’ve played - but the difference isn’t night and day.
Most CS Strats I’ve played have been excellent - and some are exceptional. All are much cheaper than ‘the real thing’ - so as a musical instrument to own and play - they offer a practical solution to players.
The biggest issue with vintage Fenders is authentication; I’ve owned and played a fair number of real ones - but would be massively nervous about buying one now. I hold ‘most’ vintage dealers in pretty low esteem - it’s not just the Rick and Justin Harrisons who are dishonest - most of them are to a greater or lesser degree.
I paid sensible money for my 335 - the prices these days are just ridiculous. If you have the cash, really want want one - and know enough to make sure you’re not ripped off - then fair enough.
I dont feel in any way short-changed by my CS Strat. It plays really well, sounds superb and is my favourite guitar to play. I never regret it isn’t a vintage guitar at all....
Bass features in in so many different styles (more than just guitar bands) and as such it's just as vibrant a playing scene as it ever was. In many ways the really big bass heroes were much later than the classic guitar heroes.
You wouldnt get a discussion quite like this on a bass forum.
I see the same for guitars in the not too distant future. The large amp market is already getting there....
Nobody wants a piano because modern houses just aren't built for them. They are expensive to transport, expensive to tune, and there is a cheaper, lighter, smaller modern equivalent that doesn't need tuning.
Look at the prices of 70s fenders. Generally sloppy made boat anchors slapped together in the cheapest way possible and now commanding prices around 3k at dealers.
Pretty sure that the second reason is bollocks nowadays.
Speaking for myself I've long said that if you want a great instrument, buy a modern one. If you want a cool instrument, buy vintage. If you want a great, cool instrument then prepare to be patient and wait till a great vintage instrument shows up (so long as you can afford it).
I fully expect there to be massive amounts of vintage instruments for sale in the next 10-15 years as that demographic gets too old to play and then shuffle off to the great gig in the sky.
That is just as well. There are not enough vintage guitars to go round.
I personally am in my 20's and I think the audience for people who can afford vintage guitars is usually people in their 40's+ who's idols were the guitar gods of their day. Their will of course be exceptions but most people my age don't see the appeal. My girlfriend finds it odd that i want to keep going on forums and talking to blokes about guitars I personally enjoy vintage guitars because i like the history, the workmanship and the story - aside form the sound.
That being said their will be some guitars (59 Les Paul's & instruments owned by celebrities) that i think will keep rising. These (59 LP's) are the modern Stradivarius of our time and due to the supply being so small this market will always rise. These guitars are in the same category as art and that market generally stays pretty firm.
Seriously: If you value it, take/fetch it yourself
I've said this probably a dozen times already, but every Stradivari (and other contemporary maker) violin that's now played in modern orchestral music has been rebuilt - at the very least it has a new bridge, fingerboard, nut and an increased neck angle. All have replacement tuning pegs and almost all replacement tailpieces too. Almost all have had body repairs involving the top being taken off and re-glued, and finish touch-ups.
If you did all that to a '59 Les Paul, what would it be worth? But for what it is worth, one that comes close is the Peter Green/Gary Moore/Kirk Hammett (I love saying that last name since it really pisses off Les Paul snobs ) one - and it's one of the most valuable, because of its history and its tone, not its originality.
In another 50 years all the 'original plastics' will be gone, many of the original pickups will have needed rewinding, the original pots replaced etc... who cares? They won't sound any worse for it. If there is anything special about the sound of those guitars, it's mostly in the wood, and possibly the pickups - and luckily we have experts who can wind new ones that sound as good, now.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Seriously: If you value it, take/fetch it yourself